What's Happened Since McAleenan Took Over
The contract wins have started stacking up:
✔️ Fresh digital ID and biometric contracts secured with the Department of Homeland Security
✔️ Modernization project landed for the military's Orian decision support platform
✔️ Partnership with C3.ai for AI-powered border security and threat detection
✔️ International expansion including new offices in Abu Dhabi
✔️ Private sector partnerships with the New England Patriots and Kraft Group
The company operates through three AI modules—observe, orient, and dominate. Their systems ingest massive data streams, identify patterns and threats, and help predict outcomes in real time.
The biggest contract sits with the U.S. Army's global force information management system, AI software ensuring the military is properly equipped for any mission.
The 2025 Narrative Is Outdated
Short sellers have hammered one talking point: Big Bear saw a 16% revenue dip in 2025. The bear case frames this as a company in decline.
The reality looks different. The federal government spent 2025 modernizing infrastructure and reviewing contracts. This included the DOGE-driven efficiency push and a broader effort to eliminate bloat. Contracts got paused. Short sellers predicted Big Bear would get gutted.
That modernization is now complete. Paused contracts are resuming. And the company used 2025 to transform:
1. Acquired Ask Sage, a $250 million generative AI platform built for classified government work
2. Eliminated $125 million in debt
3. Built a cash position of $456 million
The stock is priced like 2025 was a disaster. The balance sheet tells a different story.
The Valuation Gap
Comparisons to Palantir are inevitable—both are AI defense companies with major government contracts helping military and intelligence agencies make decisions.
The valuation difference is stark. Palantir trades at over 100x sales. Big Bear trades at roughly 15x sales, or around 9x forward sales.
That gap represents either a massive discount or a value trap. The catalyst list suggests the former.
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