In October 2025, something happened that didn't make headlines. |
Poland bought 16 tonnes of gold. It was their second major purchase in just two months, and they did it while gold prices were hitting record highs. |
Most investors would've called that irrational. Who buys more of something after it soars? |
But central banks don't play by investor logic. They're not trying to time the bottom. They're not chasing price momentum. |
They are securing protection, and they're acting as if the price tag is irrelevant. |
The vault doors are swinging wide open again. And the message from the institutions behind the curtain is simple: This isn't over. |
It's just beginning. |
From Quiet Moves to Clear Signals |
Brazil is back in the market. They added 15 tonnes in September, then 16 more in October. |
Kazakhstan has added gold for seven straight months. |
Poland is now sitting on over 530 tonnes, making them 2025's largest buyer. |
Guatemala, a country that rarely enters financial conversations, nearly doubled its reserves in a single purchase. |
The trend is spreading from large emerging powers to smaller, often overlooked economies. And they're all telling the same story. |
Gold is no longer a side bet. It's becoming the foundation. |
Central bank reserves now hold 27 percent in gold. That number stood at just 10 percent two decades ago. |
Meanwhile, the share held in U.S. Treasuries has fallen to 23 percent. |
This is not just a rebalancing. This is a quiet shift in global confidence. |
And for the first time since 1996, gold has overtaken Treasuries in global reserve share. |
That's more than a milestone. That's a vote. |
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How BRICS Nations Are Rewiring the Financial System |
While central banks accumulate gold, something else is happening behind the scenes. |
The BRICS countries, along with new allies like Saudi Arabia and the UAE, are building a parallel system for global trade. |
They're not focused on creating a flashy new currency. They're focused on cutting the U.S. dollar out of everyday transactions. |
Russia and China are now conducting most of their trade in rubles and yuan. |
India just settled an oil deal with the UAE using rupees. |
China and Brazil are trading commodities directly in yuan and reais. |
And BRICS Pay, a multi-country digital settlement system, is being quietly tested to link national payment networks without touching the dollar at all. |
This isn't a theory. It's already happening. |
Every deal made in non-dollar terms chips away at the foundation of dollar hegemony. Even U.S. allies are hedging. |
Saudi Arabia, once the keystone of the petrodollar, is now signaling a willingness to price oil in yuan. |
The world isn't ditching the dollar overnight. But it's learning how to live without it. |
And that changes everything. |
The U.S. Treasury Market Is Still Massive, but It's Losing Depth |
The numbers look solid on the surface. Foreign holdings of U.S. Treasuries reached a record $9.16 trillion in 2025. Japan and the UK remain strong buyers. |
But when you peel back the layers, a deeper story emerges. |
China has pulled back to its lowest level of Treasury holdings since the global financial crisis. Russia, petro-states, and others are gradually reducing their exposure as well. |
America is becoming increasingly reliant on a smaller group of friendly nations—and on domestic investors to finance its deficits. |
At the same time, yields are climbing. |
The 10-year Treasury yield crossed five percent earlier this year, which hasn't happened in decades. |
That's not just a pricing adjustment. It's a trust adjustment. |
Investors are asking for more to lend to the U.S. because the risks no longer feel theoretical. They feel present. |
The "risk-free" asset is starting to feel risky. |
And the more fragile the safety net becomes, the more appealing gold starts to look. |
Gold Isn't a Hedge Anymore. It's Becoming the Core. |
Gold prices are up more than 70 percent this year. And the buyers driving that move aren't the Reddit crowd. They're sovereign wealth funds, institutions, and central banks. |
Western investors are catching on. In September alone, $10 billion flowed into gold-backed ETFs. |
This is not a fad. |
We are watching the early stages of a new portfolio model. One that's no longer centered around stocks and bonds alone. |
Asset managers are already shifting toward a 60/20/20 structure. That's 60 percent equities, 20 percent fixed income, and 20 percent real assets like gold and commodities. |
In this model, gold isn't a hedge. It's a pillar. |
And it's not just about performance. It's about security. |
Gold has no counterparty risk. No exposure to inflationary policy. And in this new cycle, it has even shown a positive correlation to rising rates. |
Investors are no longer asking, "Why gold?" They're asking, "Why didn't we own more?" |
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The Dollar Isn't Dying. But Its Reign Is No Longer Absolute. |
Let's be clear. |
The U.S. dollar is still dominant. It still accounts for the majority of global trade and reserves. But the terms of that dominance are shifting. |
America's financial power has always depended on the world's willingness to keep playing along. |
That willingness is now conditional. |
It's no longer granted by default. It must be earned. |
More and more countries are searching for alternatives, not because they want to take down the U.S., but because they no longer want to be exposed to it. |
This is not a collapse. This is a slow, strategic evolution. |
And for investors who understand what's happening, this shift creates opportunity. |
Because as the global monetary system rebalances, the assets that benefit from that shift won't be the ones everyone used to lean on. |
They'll be the ones already being embraced by the smartest and most cautious players in the world. |
Gold is at the top of that list. |
What You Can Do Right Now |
You don't need to bet against the dollar to prepare. You just need to stop pretending nothing is changing. |
Start by asking yourself three questions: |
How much of your wealth depends on U.S. dollar assets?
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If the answer is "almost all of it," you may want to revisit your strategy. |
Are you building real resilience into your portfolio?
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Gold is no longer a speculative idea. It's a form of insurance that central banks are buying in bulk. You can too—through bullion, ETFs, or diversified real asset exposure. |
Are you watching the world's quiet signals, or just reacting to the headlines?
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The financial shift underway won't happen in a single day. It will unfold quietly, then suddenly. Stay ahead of it. |
This isn't about abandoning the system. It's about surviving the transition. |
The dollar's era is evolving. The future will be more plural, more volatile, and more rewarding for those who adapt early. |
The world's most sophisticated money managers are preparing for that future now. |
And so should you. |
Stay Sharp, |
Gideon Ashwood |
P.S. Happy New Year! There won't be an essay on Thursday, as I'll be out of the office for the rest of the week. Wishing you and your loved ones a happy, healthy, and prosperous New Year. Thank you for being part of this journey. We'll see you next year, ready to hit the ground running. |
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