| TQ Morning Briefing | Markets are not breaking. They are redistributing. | | | | | | Markets are not breaking. They are redistributing. | What looked like a stumble to start the week was, in reality, another confirmation that leadership is changing shape rather than disappearing. Capital is stepping back from concentration trades that dominated 2024 and early 2025 and moving toward durability, balance sheets, and policy visibility. | The shift is not loud. There is no panic bid, no forced deleveraging, no macro shock demanding immediate repricing. | Instead, this is assessment mode. Investors are re-evaluating what earns a premium when growth slows, data quality degrades, and government involvement becomes more explicit across sectors. | This week brings the first real data pulse in months after the shutdown-induced blackout. The numbers will be messy, incomplete, and backward looking. | But they matter less for what they say about October or November and more for how markets react to uncertainty returning to the system. | The theme remains intact. AI is not collapsing, but it is no longer exempt. Policy is not hostile to capital, but it is more transactional. Growth is slowing, but not breaking. | That combination favors rotation, not retreat. |
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| | | | Monday followed a familiar script. Futures pointed higher overnight, early gains held briefly, then faded into the close. By the end of the session, major indices finished modestly lower, extending last week's pullback. | The weakness stayed concentrated. Large-cap technology continued to do the heavy lifting on the downside, with Oracle and Broadcom extending post-earnings declines. | The Nasdaq fell again and is now down over 2 percent for December, while the S&P 500 remains close to highs but increasingly reliant on fewer names for support. | Small caps also pulled back, but the context matters. The Russell 2000 gave back ground on the day yet remains positive for the month, reflecting a still-intact rotation into more cyclically exposed and domestically oriented companies. | Sector performance reinforced the same story. Healthcare and utilities outperformed. Energy and technology lagged. Consumer discretionary held up largely on the back of Tesla strength rather than broad demand. | Rates told a quieter story. The front end rallied modestly, with two-year yields edging lower as traders position for softer labor data. The long end stayed range-bound, keeping the curve steep but contained. | Commodities continued to diverge. Gold pushed back toward record territory. Oil slid further, with WTI trading at new 2025 lows amid ample supply and weak demand signals. Crypto remained under pressure, with bitcoin still far below October highs. | Volume was light. Positioning was cautious. The tape felt like a market waiting for permission rather than searching for exits. |
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| | | | Monetary policy is no longer just about rates. It is about credibility, governance, and who ultimately sets the constraints. | Last week's Fed cut did little to ease longer-term yields, underscoring that fiscal dynamics and term premium matter more than the policy rate at this stage of the cycle. This week's focus shifts to the leadership horizon. | The contest for the next Fed chair has re-opened. Kevin Warsh has re-emerged as a credible contender alongside Kevin Hassett, with markets increasingly attentive to what the choice signals about independence rather than ideology. | Bond markets are not pricing a policy revolution. They are pricing a risk spectrum. Any perception that the Fed's insulation weakens raises questions about inflation credibility, term premia, and long-run yield compensation. That sensitivity is already visible in the curve's behavior. | Inside the Fed, the divide persists. Some officials argue inflation data overstates pressure due to measurement lags. Others remain wary of easing too quickly with services inflation still elevated. The chair's vote remains one among many, but leadership sets tone, communication discipline, and market trust. | Beyond the Fed, global central banks crowd the calendar. The Bank of England faces a knife-edge decision amid slowing growth. The ECB is expected to hold steady. The Bank of Japan is widely expected to hike, reinforcing the global shift away from synchronized easing. | Liquidity is no longer abundant, but it is not scarce. Policy is steady, not supportive. Markets are adjusting accordingly. |
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| | | | | Trade Winds & Global Shifts |
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| | | Geopolitics continues to simmer without boiling over. | On the Korean peninsula, the sudden quiet along the border reflects a deliberate shift by South Korea's new leadership to reduce friction with the North. Loudspeaker broadcasts have been silenced. Leaflet campaigns curtailed. Radio transmissions scaled back. | The move signals de-escalation, but it also represents a meaningful concession on information flow. With China and Russia providing diplomatic cover to Pyongyang, the North appears under little pressure to reciprocate beyond symbolic gestures. The likely path is containment, not resolution. | Elsewhere, U.S. military action against alleged drug-smuggling vessels in the Caribbean and Eastern Pacific continues. The campaign is expanding quietly, even as legal and ethical questions mount. These actions matter less for immediate markets and more for what they signal about enforcement posture and regional pressure points, particularly toward Venezuela. | In Europe, expectations of Ukraine negotiations remain cautious. Any progress appears to point toward frozen conflict rather than durable peace. Defense spending remains supported, while energy risk stays persistent but contained. | Trade policy continues to add friction without shock. Tariffs have not reignited inflation, but they have reshaped supply chains and delayed investment decisions. Capital responds by favoring predictability over growth optionality. | The result is a global backdrop that rewards patience, diversification, and policy awareness rather than directional bets. |
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| | | | | | | D.C. in the Driver's Seat |
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| | | Washington is exerting influence in more places, and in more explicit ways. | The most striking example remains the administration's evolving approach to state capitalism. Strategic sectors are not being nationalized, but they are being guided. Equity stakes, revenue participation, regulatory relief, and market access are increasingly linked. | Nvidia's agreement to share revenue in exchange for access to Chinese markets is emblematic. So is the government's equity position in Intel. The message is clear. Alignment brings optionality. Distance brings friction. | This approach extends beyond technology. The administration is signaling openness to reclassifying marijuana as a Schedule III drug, a move that would materially alter the economics of the cannabis industry by easing tax burdens, expanding banking access, and unlocking research funding. | Markets reacted quickly, but durability depends on agency follow-through rather than rhetoric. | At the same time, domestic risks are reminding investors that infrastructure and climate exposure remain underpriced. Severe flooding and levee failures in Washington state highlight the slow accumulation of physical risk that will increasingly shape municipal spending, insurance costs, and federal emergency response. | Legal pressure is rising as well. High-profile cases involving courts, prosecutors, and enforcement authority underscore a willingness to test institutional boundaries. For markets, this translates into elevated risk premia in legal, regulatory, and media-adjacent sectors. | Capital is not fleeing Washington's influence. It is learning how to price it. |
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| | | | Non Farm Payrolls (Oct)
Non Farm Payrolls (Nov)
Retail Sales
S&P Global Composite PMI Flash |
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| | | | | | Asia: Nikkei -1.56%, Shanghai -1.11%
Europe: FTSE 100 -0.44, DAX -0.35% |
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| | | | | | You Missed the Crypto Bottom — This Is the Do-Over | Let's be real. | Most investors froze at the bottom. Fear won. That window is gone. | But the recovery just opened a second chance — and in some ways, it's even better. This time, there's confirmation. | The crash wiped out hype and exposed which cryptos actually matter. What survived? Fundamentals. | One crypto is flashing the same setup we saw before massive runs:
8,600% (OCEAN)
3,500% (PRE)
1,743% (ALBT) | Strong on-chain data. Growing network. Active development. | Yet the price still hasn't caught up. | That gap won't stay open for long. | See the crypto before this window slams shut. | © 2025 Boardwalk Flock LLC. All Rights Reserved. 2382 Camino Vida Roble, Suite I Carlsbad, CA 92011, United States. The advice and strategies contained herein may not be suitable for your situation. You should consult with a professional where appropriate. Readers acknowledge that the authors are not engaging in the rendering of legal, financial, medical, or professional advice. The reader agrees that under no circumstances Boardwalk Flock, LLC is responsible for any losses, direct or indirect, which are incurred as a result of the use of the information contained within this, including, but not limited to, errors, omissions, or inaccuracies. Results may not be typical and may vary from person to person. Making money trading digital currencies takes time and hard work. There are inherent risks involved with investing, including the loss of your investment. Past performance in the market is not indicative of future results. Any investment is at your own risk. |
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| | | | With delayed labor and spending data finally hitting the tape, markets are less focused on precision and more focused on direction. The numbers will be noisy, distorted, and backward looking. What matters is whether they confirm a slowing economy that remains intact, or hint at something more fragile beneath the surface. | So far, positioning suggests investors are prepared for softer growth but not stress. Rate markets are leaning toward additional easing in 2026. Equity leadership is broadening rather than breaking. Commodities are holding a bid as the dollar drifts lower. Risk is being priced selectively, not indiscriminately. | If the data reinforce a narrative of cooling without contraction, rotation should persist and volatility should stay contained. A sharper deterioration would shift the conversation quickly, but that is not the base case markets are trading this morning. | The year is ending the way it began to change: less about chasing concentration, more about navigating constraints. |
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