Stocks Closed Lower Yesterday, This Morning's Employment Report In Focus

Today's Market Moves from Zacks  ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌  ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌  ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ 

Stocks Closed Lower Yesterday, This Morning's Employment Report In Focus

	Profit from the Pros By Kevin Matras Executive Vice President
	Stocks Closed Lower Yesterday, This Morning's Employment Report In Focus Stocks closed mostly lower yesterday, giving up early morning gains. Yesterday's Empire State Manufacturing Index declined to -3.9 vs. last month's 18.7 and views for 10.0. And the Housing Market Index ticked up to 39, in line with the consensus, and above last month's 38. Today we'll get the Housing Starts and Permits report, Retail Sales, the PMI Composite report, and Business Inventories. But the report everybody will be focused on is the Employment Situation Report by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). It's been a while since we got a look at recent jobs data. As you know, the government shutdown, which lasted all throughout October and the first half of November, delayed the release of September's jobs report (which was due in October). When the shutdown ended, we finally got the long-awaited September report in late November. While it came in better-than-expected at 119,000 jobs, downward revisions to August turned a 22,000 job increase into a -4,000 job decrease. But by then it was old news and elicited a muted response. Today's report, which was delayed as well, but only by a little more than 1 week, is expected to show a 40,000 job gain for November (30K in the private sector and 10K public), and an unemployment rate of 4.5% vs. the last reading of 4.4%. Along with November's tally, we'll also see how October fared. Even though October seems less important than November (new data is usually more important than older data), it will help flesh out what the labor market looks like (and looked like, while the government was shut down), and see if there are any trends. In addition to a dearth of official jobs numbers over the last couple of months, the reports take heightened importance given the Fed's focus on jobs vs. inflation, citing an increased risk to the labor market. It also comes on the heels of the Fed, just last week, saying they believe that the jobs numbers have been systematically overstated. So, not only will we see what the jobs data says, we'll also see how the market reacts. A weaker-than-expected report could energize the market as that would augur for another rate cut sooner rather than later. Although, a better-than-expected report could provide a sense of relief as well. Or could a stronger-than-expected report weigh on stocks as it could delay the next rate cut? And could a weaker report only serve to ignite worries over the health of the economy? The market could interpret any one of these scenarios differently. We'll have to wait and see. But I'm expecting the former. Either way, last week's rate cuts, and stronger economic outlook by the Fed, bodes well for the new year. And I'm expecting a nice end-of-year rally to finish off another stellar year of gains. See you tomorrow, Kevin Matras Executive Vice President, Zacks Investment Research
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