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Today's Exclusive News The 2026 Cannabis Wildcard: How Tax Reform Could Reset Stock ValuationsReported by Jeffrey Neal Johnson. Originally Published: 12/30/2025. 
In Brief- The removal of punitive federal tax codes would allow cannabis operators to deduct standard business expenses and finally generate sustainable free cash flow.
- Canopy Growth has successfully transitioned to an asset-light business model while securing strategic assets to trigger immediate entry into the American market.
- Tilray Brands leverages a robust craft beverage division to ensure financial stability and growth while maintaining a global footprint in the medical cannabis sector.
As the trading year 2025 draws to a close, the cannabis sector presents a mixed picture for the average investor. On Dec. 18, 2025, President Trump signed a pivotal Executive Order directing the Attorney General to expedite the rescheduling of cannabis. By traditional metrics this political milestone should have sparked a sustained rally. Instead, the market reacted with a sharp sell-the-news correction. If you want a way to generate consistent market income without chasing volatile AI stocks or complex crypto trades, you'll want to see my new e-book, How To Master The Retirement Trade. It reveals a simple, time-based strategy that targets trades designed to play out in as little as 11 hours — no guesswork, no hype. Claim your free copy of How To Master The Retirement Trade now Leading equities in the space have retreated significantly and are trading near their yearly lows. That price action suggests market exhaustion. Investors, fatigued by years of bureaucratic delays and false starts, largely ignored the long-term implications of the order and focused on the lack of immediate, overnight legalization. Yet experienced analysts say this pessimism has created a contrarian opportunity. The market is pricing cannabis stocks as if regulatory reform has already failed, even though data points to the administration moving toward a concrete regulatory shift in 2026. That disconnect between depressed valuations and improving political probabilities has produced an oversold condition. While the crowd is selling, the fundamentals for 2026 suggest the sector may be coiled for a reversal. The Macro Catalyst: From Red Tape to Green CashThe potential turnaround in 2026 hinges on tax law. The wildcard scenario depends on the administration moving cannabis from Schedule I to Schedule III under the Controlled Substances Act. While that sounds like an administrative tweak, it would effectively act as a substantial corporate tax cut. Today, U.S. cannabis operators (and those preparing to enter the market) are constrained by IRS Section 280E. That tax code prevents businesses that traffic in Schedule I or II substances from deducting ordinary business expenses. - The Current Problem: A typical business deducts rent, payroll and utilities from revenue before calculating taxes. Cannabis companies cannot. They pay taxes on gross profit, often resulting in effective tax rates of 70% or more and severely impairing cash flow.
- The 2026 Solution: If cannabis moves to Schedule III, Section 280E would no longer apply. Companies could immediately deduct standard operating costs.
For the market, this is the critical variable. Removing 280E would transform the industry's financial model, turning many companies from cash burners into free cash flow generators. If the Executive Order from December leads to a finalized rule in 2026, valuations would likely reset to reflect that more profitable reality. Canopy Growth Corporation: The Aggressive U.S. BetFor investors seeking aggressive exposure to the potential opening of the U.S. market, Canopy Growth Corporation (NASDAQ: CGC) remains the primary vehicle. The company has spent the last two years reshaping its business into an asset-light model, divesting large cultivation facilities to reduce overhead and conserve capital. Canopy's investment thesis centers on Canopy USA, a structure that lets the company hold economic interests in U.S. assets while staying within NASDAQ listing rules. The strategy is binary: once federal rescheduling allows, Canopy USA can trigger the acquisition of those profitable entities and immediately consolidate their revenue. While waiting for Washington to act, Canopy is not idle. On Dec. 15, 2025, the company announced the strategic acquisition of MTL Cannabis. - Supply Chain Security: The deal secures a consistent, high-quality flower supply, critical for maintaining market share in Canada.
- Export Capability: MTL strengthens Canopy's ability to serve international medical markets, providing a revenue bridge while the U.S. strategy matures.
Combined with a cost-reduction program delivering roughly $21 million in annualized savings, Canopy has positioned itself to survive current volatility and scale rapidly once the regulatory environment shifts. Tilray Brands: The Diversified FortressTilray Brands, Inc. (NASDAQ: TLRY) offers a different value proposition: stability through diversification. Rather than betting the entire company on one regulatory outcome, Tilray operates on three pillars: Cannabis, Wellness and Beverage Alcohol. If political delays persist into 2026, Tilray has a built‑in safety net. After a series of 2024 acquisitions, the company has become the fifth-largest craft brewer in the U.S., owning brands such as Hop Valley and Terrapin. Revenue from craft beer and bourbon provides reliable cash flow that insulates the company from cannabis-sector volatility. Additionally, Project 420 is underway to streamline operations and deliver multi‑million dollar savings across its beverage and cannabis lines. Management has also acted to clean up the capital structure. On Dec. 1, 2025, Tilray executed a 1-for-10 reverse stock split. - Institutional Access: Many large institutional funds cannot buy stocks trading under $5.00. A higher share price reopens access to those investors.
- Compliance: The move helps ensure long-term NASDAQ compliance and reduces delisting risk.
Additionally, Tilray continues to expand in Europe, holding a cultivation license under Germany's new Cannabis Act. That international footprint allows it to grow revenue regardless of the pace of U.S. reform. The Bear Trap: Anatomy of a Short SqueezeBoth Canopy Growth and Tilray Brands are trading at historically low valuations relative to sales, yet short interest—the volume of shares borrowed by investors betting the price will fall—remains elevated. Those short sellers are effectively wagering that the federal government will fail to execute the rescheduling order, creating a high‑risk situation for the bears. - The Trap: If a concrete positive announcement arrives—such as the DEA publishing a final Schedule III rule—the short thesis collapses.
- The Scramble: Short sellers must buy shares to cover positions and exit the trade.
- The Squeeze: That forced buying creates a feedback loop: as shorts buy, the price rises, forcing more covering.
Because sentiment is so negative, even modest good news could trigger this chain reaction. Heavy short positioning is dry powder; a regulatory spark could ignite a rapid and forceful upside move. 2026 Outlook: Time for ExecutionThe year 2025 was defined by waiting, but the landscape for 2026 has shifted. Companies are leaner, cost structures are improved, and the President has issued a direct order to cut regulatory red tape. Investors now face a binary window. If the administration executes its directive, removal of the 280E tax burden could justify materially higher stock prices. The sector has moved from hope to execution. For those watching the industry, current prices carry clear risk but also the potential for a historic bargain if the political wildcard plays out in the industry's favor.
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