The 30-Second Version |
SpaceX priced the largest IPO in history, $75 billion at $135 a share, and makes its Nasdaq debut this morning as SPCX, with roughly $250 billion in reported orders behind it. Trump canceled Thursday's planned strikes on Iran, and the reported memorandum would restore pre-war Hormuz shipping within 30 days of signing. Oil slid about 4%; Tehran says nothing is final. Also on deck: a brewing OpenAI and Anthropic price race, May CPI at 4.2%, a Fed decision next week, and a UFC card at the White House for Trump's 80th on Sunday. Bigger Than OpenAI and SpaceX Combined (Read before June 16)* (from Chaikin Analytics)
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Block 1 of 5 |
Largest IPO Ever, First Trillionaire Next |
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SpaceX priced its IPO at $135 a share Thursday night, and the stock goes live on the Nasdaq this morning under the ticker SPCX. The company sold 555.6 million shares and raised about $75 billion, according to its SEC filing. One number, take it or leave it, and nobody left it: the deal nearly tripled the old record, Saudi Aramco's $29.4 billion raise from 2019. |
The big picture: The pricing values SpaceX at roughly $1.8 trillion against reported 2025 revenue of $18.7 billion, more than 90 times sales. Nobody is buying SPCX for what SpaceX earns today. They are buying ten years of Starlink growth, Starship working, and an AI compute business that barely exists yet. Be honest about which version you own. |
About that trillionaire headline: Musk owns a large piece of SpaceX, agreed not to sell for a year, and his combined SpaceX, Tesla and xAI stakes put a thirteen-figure net worth within reach if SPCX holds near its pricing. Whether that lands this month or next year depends on a stock that has not yet traded a single minute. |
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AD |
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Disclaimer: Immersed is offering securities through the use of an Offering Statement that has been qualified by the Securities and Exchange Commission under Tier II of Regulation A. The valuation is set by the Company and there is currently no public market for the Company's Common Stock. Please read the offering circular and related risks at invest.immersed.com. Nasdaq ticker “IMRS” has been reserved by Immersed and any potential listing is subject to future regulatory approval and market conditions. |
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Block 2 of 5 |
SpaceX Launches 24 Satellites Before Debut |
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The day before its IPO, SpaceX went to work. A Falcon 9 lifted off from Vandenberg on Thursday morning carrying 24 Starlink satellites. Booster B1071 flew for the 34th time and landed on a droneship in the Pacific. The constellation now tops 10,400 satellites. |
Why it matters: Starlink is the revenue engine, reportedly about 61% of 2025 sales, and Thursday's flight is the routine that justifies the valuation. Call it the best product demo ever staged before an opening bell. |
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Block 3 of 5 |
BlackRock Orders $5 Billion Of SpaceX |
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Demand was historic. Total orders reportedly reached about $250 billion, more than three times the stock available. Around 1,000 institutions lined up, per Bloomberg. BlackRock alone asked for roughly $5 billion on Thursday. Sovereign funds from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Qatar ordered a billion dollars and up. |
Then there was everyone else. Retail investors submitted more than $100 billion in orders, Bloomberg reported. Read that again. Regular people, on their phones, ordered more SpaceX stock than the entire offering. Musk promised in 2020 that small investors would get top priority; SpaceX reportedly reserved as much as 30% of the deal for them. Still nowhere near enough. |
Why it matters: Unfilled money does not go home. It shows up in the open market today, chasing shares, and that mismatch, not the rocket footage, is what will drive the first prints. |
Expert read: Heavily oversubscribed IPOs often pop early, then chop for a quarter as fast money takes profits. The next real catalyst is index inclusion. If SPCX earns a spot in the Nasdaq-100, index funds become forced buyers. Watch that and the one-year lockup more than the day-one fireworks. |
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Block 4 of 5 |
OpenAI Weighs Price Cuts, Anthropic Next |
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Driving the news: OpenAI is weighing significant cuts to what it charges for paid access to its AI models, the Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday, and it expects rival Anthropic to cut prices too. Per Bloomberg, talks are early and nothing is decided. |
Why it matters: Both labs are heading to market. OpenAI confidentially filed for an IPO with the SEC on Monday, right behind Anthropic's own filing, and Anthropic's latest round valued it at $965 billion. Cheaper AI is great news for every business that buys it. It is tougher math for the margins behind two hotly anticipated listings. |
Investor angle: Enterprise customers switch AI providers easily, which is exactly what turns one cut into a race. Falling token prices cut costs for the software companies that buy intelligence, and squeeze anyone whose valuation depends on selling it for more. |
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AD |
SpaceX’s Dangerous Secret |
There's one small company Elon Musk can't operate without. |
Without it, his $1.75 trillion empire goes dark. |
Wall Street hasn't noticed it yet. But it won't stay that way for long. |
Here's the full story. |
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Block 5 of 5 |
Trump Cancels Iran Strikes, Claims Breakthrough |
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Driving the news: Thursday was whiplash. Trump spent the morning threatening to seize Iran's main oil export terminal, then canceled the planned strikes by evening, saying talks had reached Iran's top leadership and a settlement was essentially done. A signing could come within days. |
Tehran's version is cooler. Officials acknowledged an agreement in principle but stressed Khamenei has not given final approval. The reported memorandum, per Axios and Iranian media: a 60-day ceasefire extension, nuclear talks with sanctions relief on the table, and the Strait of Hormuz returning to pre-war shipping volumes within 30 days of signing. |
Why it matters: About 20% of the world's oil and gas moves through Hormuz. It has been effectively shut during the war, and the bill shows up in gas prices, shipping costs, your grocery receipt. The World Bank says the conflict is dragging 2026 global growth to 2.5%, the weakest since the pandemic. The ECB raised rates the same day to 2.25%, its first move in a year. |
By the numbers: Stocks logged their biggest daily gains in two months Thursday. The S&P 500 jumped +1.75% to 7,394.30, the Dow rose +1.86% to 50,848.75, and the Nasdaq rallied +2.54% to 25,809.66. Oil went the other way: WTI settled at $87.71, down more than 2%, then another -3.9% to $86.51 in late trading on Trump's settlement comments; Brent fell toward $89. |
Risk check: This deal is not signed. Iran attacked US bases and ships in the strait this week, and the naval blockade stays until documents are final. If the signing slips, Thursday's oil drop reverses fast. The 30-day reopening clock starts at the signature, not the headline. Until then: wait and see. |
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BONUS BLOCK |
Cage Fight Marks Trump's 80th Birthday |
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Then there is Sunday. Trump turns 80 on June 14, which is also Flag Day, and the celebration is a full UFC card on the South Lawn. Court filings put the cost above $60 million, covered by UFC. Roughly 100,000 to 125,000 guests are expected, and fighters will reportedly walk to the Octagon from the Oval Office. |
The intrigue: Officially a celebration of the American fighting spirit; practically, the most-watched birthday party on the planet, landing two days after the Musk IPO and maybe a day before an Iran signing. As a snapshot of 2026, it is hard to top. |
For your weekend group chat: Replacing the South Lawn grass afterward is expected to cost about $700,000, roughly 5,185 shares of SPCX at the IPO price. |
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BY THE NUMBERS |
This week in ten numbers |
$75 billion: the SpaceX raise, the largest IPO ever $135: the take-it-or-leave-it share price $1.8 trillion: SpaceX's implied valuation at pricing $250 billion: total reported orders for the deal $100 billion+: retail orders alone, per Bloomberg 10,400+: Starlink satellites in orbit after Thursday's launch 4.2%: May CPI, hottest since April 2023; energy +23.5% on the year 6.5%: May PPI, the biggest annual jump in wholesale prices since 2022 2.5%: the World Bank's new 2026 global growth forecast, cut from 2.9% $86.51: WTI crude in late trading Thursday, down -3.9% on deal hopes
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RADAR |
What to watch |
SPCX's First Week |
Watch where SPCX closes against $135 by next Friday, and whether Nasdaq-100 chatter turns into a date. |
The Signing |
Khamenei has not signed. A signature starts the 30-day Hormuz reopening clock and pressures oil lower; a delay snaps crude back up. |
Fed Week |
The ECB already moved on energy inflation. The Fed decides next week with CPI at 4.2%, PPI at 6.5%, and a possible peace dividend in play. |
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BOTTOM LINE |
One company raised $75 billion in a day; one narrow waterway held the world's inflation outlook hostage. |
Your portfolio lives between those two facts. |
Do not chase SPCX at any price out of FOMO, and do not treat the Iran deal as done until the ink dries. |
Weekend homework, one list: what you would buy if oil breaks below $80, and what you would trim if it does not. |
Special to our readers: Download This Trading eBook: Predict the Leaders |
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Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.
Items marked with an asterisk (*) are promotional and help support this newsletter at no cost to readers. |
Big Banks Just Made $45 Billion. So Why Is Jamie Dimon Worried About a Private Credit Crash? KEY POINTS The six largest US banks pulled in roughly $45 billion in combined trading revenue in Q1 2026, up sharply from $30 billion last quarter. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warns the next private credit downturn will be "worse than people expect," citing weakening lending standards and a lack of transparency in the $7 trillion market. Investors are rotating into gold, which is up more than 40% over the past 12 months, as a hedge against stagflation and recession risk. Big banks are flashing two very different signals right now. On one hand, they're making record money. On the other, their most experienced CEO is telling investors to brace for impact. So which one should you trust? Honestly, both. And that gap matters more than you might think. Think of it this way. The same storm that batters one ship can fill the sails of another. Big banks are the ones with sails, they make money when markets get jumpy, because traders pay them to move risk around. But Jamie Dimon isn't looking at the sails. He's looking at the water level. Here's what we know from the Q1 2026 earnings reports, what Dimon's recent letter to shareholders is really telling us, and what it all means for your money over the next 12 months. TOP STORY Big banks win, Dimon stays worried JPMorgan, Citi, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, and Bank of America just posted a combined trading haul of roughly $45 billion in Q1 2026. That's a fresh 12-month peak, well above the $30 billion they pulled in during Q4 2025, and noticeably higher than the roughly $40 billion they reported a year earlier. Wealth management is also having a strong run. Bank of America's global wealth and investment management revenue jumped 12%, with asset management fees up 15% to $4.2 billion. Citigroup's net income popped 42%. Morgan Stanley's net income climbed from $4.3 billion to $5.6 billion in just one year. But Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan's chairman and CEO, isn't celebrating. In his recent letter to shareholders, he wrote that whenever the next credit cycle hits, "it'll be worse than people expect." He pointed to weakening lending standards "across the board," and singled out private credit as a specific risk, because it isn't very transparent, which means trouble could spread faster than markets expect. Plain English: Private credit is just lending that happens outside traditional banks. Hedge funds, private equity firms, and insurance companies make these loans directly to mid-size businesses. The market has ballooned to roughly $7 trillion globally. Because these loans don't trade on public markets, problems can build up quietly before anyone notices. What's a credit cycle? It's the back-and-forth between when borrowing is easy and when it gets tight. When it tightens, more people fall behind on loans, banks lend less, and businesses pull back. Dimon isn't predicting a recession outright. He's saying JPMorgan is preparing for one, plus the chance of stagflation. WHY IT MATTERS Why this hits your wallet Here's the thing. When credit conditions tighten, regular Americans feel it first. Loans get harder to get. Hiring slows. Layoffs creep up. And the stock market tends to react fast. You probably already know someone who's been laid off recently. More and more companies are running large layoffs, and a possible recession could make the next job harder to find. That's why financial advisors keep saying the same thing right now, build up your emergency fund. The old "three to six months of expenses" rule still works. Some folks are even pushing closer to a year, just in case. Dimon didn't forecast a recession. What he said was sharper, "I'm not forecasting anything. I'm simply saying, for JP Morgan, we have to be prepared for a recession, and that you could have stagflation." If that scenario plays out, leveraged companies that need to refinance debt could get squeezed. Many of those companies borrowed from private credit funds, not banks, so when the squeeze hits, it shows up there first. And portfolios concentrated in growth stocks or high-yield credit could feel real pain. The risk on the table: Dimon specifically flagged what happens "if you have stagflation and higher rates for longer and credit spreads gap out." Translation, companies with too much debt could struggle to refinance, and that pressure tends to ripple into stocks and corporate bonds at the same time. THE BIG PICTURE The private credit blind spot Here's a fact most retail investors miss. Back in 2000, US banks funded between 35% and 40% of all corporate debt. Today that number has dropped to roughly the high-teens or low-20s, according to JPMorgan Private Bank. So who took up the slack? Private credit. That gap got filled by private credit, a market that now sits at roughly $7 trillion globally. Some of it is solid. Some of it isn't. And here's the catch, because private credit doesn't trade on public markets, investors often can't see problems until they spread. There's no daily price update telling you something's off. You usually find out after the damage is done. JPMorgan Private Bank itself put it this way in a March report, recent headlines about private credit blowups don't mean the whole market is broken, but performance is splitting between top-tier managers and weaker ones, and AI is now eating into software-heavy private credit portfolios. So when Dimon flags risk, he's not just talking about JPMorgan's loan book. He's talking about a system that has shifted huge amounts of risk into private credit corners that are harder to see. That's a real on-the-ground change in how the financial system works, and most retail investors haven't priced it in yet. The honest version: Gold has become the diversifier of choice. Investors continue to view it as a hedge against geopolitical uncertainty and currency risk, even though their impact on long-term pricing is modest. China has been actively rotating reserve assets into gold, and central bank buying has remained steady, both quiet but meaningful drivers behind the rally. BY THE NUMBERS Q1 2026 by the numbers $45B combined Q1 2026 trading revenue across the 6 biggest US banks 42% jump in Citigroup's net income vs. Q1 2025 $5.6B Morgan Stanley Q1 2026 net income, up from $4.3B a year ago 15% rise in Bank of America's asset management fees, to $4.2B 40%+ gain in spot gold prices over the past 12 months $7 trillion estimated global private credit market, with private capital holding only roughly 5% of asset-backed finance ~20% US banks' current share of corporate debt funding, down from 35-40% in 2000 WHAT TO WATCH Four signals worth watching Private Credit Spreads If spreads on private credit and leveraged loans widen sharply, that's the first real sign Dimon's warning is starting to play out. Private Credit Outflows Watch for institutional investors pulling capital out of private credit funds. That would confirm stress is spreading from headlines to fundamentals. Q2 Loan Loss Provisions If Q2 trading revenue stays high but banks raise their loan loss provisions, that's the inflection point most investors will miss. 10-Year Treasury Yield Stagflation pressure tends to show up in Treasury yields before it shows up in stocks. Watch the curve, not just the headlines. THE BOTTOM LINE Big banks just had a great quarter. The most experienced CEO on Wall Street is still warning you about what's coming next. That's not a contradiction, it's a signal. Diversify across asset classes, keep an emergency fund of three to six months of expenses, and don't mistake the current calm for the all-clear. The smart move right now isn't to panic, and it isn't to chase the latest hot stock. It's to prepare quietly while everyone else is celebrating the headlines. The AI Trade Just Got a New Player. Inside Flex's Strategic Pivot KEY POINTS FLEX hit an all-time high of $142.17 on Friday after blowing past Q4 earnings expectations and announcing a major spin-off. The company is splitting in two by Q1 2027, carving out its Cloud and Power Infrastructure arm into a separate, AI-focused public company. Real partnerships with NVIDIA, AMD, JetCool, and LG Electronics position Flex as a key US-based supplier for AI factories and liquid-cooled data centers. Q4 sales jumped 17% to $7.5B; full-year FY27 guidance points to $32–34B, well ahead of consensus. Wall Street responded fast. Goldman, Barclays, KeyBanc, JPMorgan, Stifel, Baird, all moved their price targets higher in a 48-hour window.
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