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Welcome back! |
Oil had given up a lot of its gains since we last spoke, but as of last night Crude is back above $100 as Oman is evacuating all vessels from its primary oil export terminal. |
Relief is coming, but last night's price action may show it's not enough. The US is drawing 172mm barrels of oil from the strategic release, part of the IEA's plan to release 400mm barrels of oil to ease oil prices and cover the gap filled by the Strait of Hormuz being at a standstill. This marks the largest-ever release of emergency oil stocks in the agency's history, and represents about 20 days worth of supply coming out of the Strait of Hormuz, which remains closed. This comes as three commercial ships were struck near the strait, with Tehran firing after a ship ignored warnings and threats for "illegally insisting on passing through the Strait of Hormuz." The US's reserve currently contains 415mm barrels of oil, 60% of capacity. |
Btw, we'll have a one-off email regarding the newly released Buyside Hub compensation report in your inbox later today as a headsup. Let's get into it. |
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Earnings Corner 💸 |
$ORCL ( ▲ 9.18% ) Top and bottom line beat with sales of $17.19B vs. $16.9B and EPS of $1.79 vs. $1.70 as strong demand for AI infrastructure continued driving cloud growth. Cloud revenue rose to $8.9B while Oracle Cloud Infrastructure sales reached $4.9B, supported by large AI training workloads and new data center capacity. Revenue guidance was raised to $90B vs. $86.6B expected. $MTN ( ▲ 2.47% ) Revenue missed at $1.08B vs $1.11B while EPS missed at $5.87 vs $6.06. Results were hurt by historically low snowfall and unusually warm temperatures across the Rockies, which reduced skiable terrain and drove skier visits down about 12%, weighing on revenue. Guidance was lowered as the company expects continued pressure from a weak season. $BMBL ( ▲ 1.07% ) Revenue beat while EPS missed big at -$4.06 vs. $0.24. Subscriptions fell 20% y/y as demand remains soft, though higher spending per user helped support revenue. Guidance came in slightly above expectations as product improvements and new AI features support the company's turnaround strategy. $WOOF ( ▲ 3.0% ) Revenue came in roughly in line at $1.52B while EPS missed. Comparable sales fell 1.6% as weak store traffic weighed on demand while the company continued closing underperforming locations. Guidance topped expectations as cost controls and store closures improved profitability outlook. $KSS ( ▼ 5.42% ) Revenue missed at $5.17B vs. $5.23B while EPS beat. In store sales fell 2.8% as weak fall seasonal merchandising and less aggressive holiday promotions weighed on demand, while severe winter storms shaved roughly 70 bps from comps as store closures weighed on traffic. Gross margin improved on tighter inventory and cost controls.
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On The Move 📈 📉 |
Nebius $NBIS ( ▲ 16.14% ) jumped following a $2B investment from Nvidia, forming a partnership to develop and build data centers. The deal will help Nebius deploy over 5 GW of Nvidia systems by 2030, mirroring the deal Nvidia made with CoreWeave back in January. Papa John's $PZZA ( ▲ 19.42% ) rose after a Qatari-backed fund submitted a bid to take the company private at $47 a share, a 50% premium that would value the company at $1.5B. Hims & Hers $HIMS ( ▲ 10.27% ) surged as Novo Nordisk dropped its patent infringement case, with Hims agreeing to sell Ozempic and Wegovy at the same price as other telehealth platforms. Campbell's $CPB ( ▼ 7.05% ) slid after cutting its profit outlook amid supply constraints and weak demand for chips and pretzels.
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IPO Roundup 📍 |
Pershing Square has filed for an IPO on the NYSE, seeking to raise $5B to $10B in a combined deal for the hedge fund and a new closed-end fund. This is Ackman's second go at an IPO after the first in 2024 was pulled amid weak investor demand. Carlyle-backed Quest Global has begun discussions for a potential Mumbai IPO that could raise up to $1B, with a mix of primary shares and secondary sales.
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Today's Headlines 📖🍿 |
Inflation holds at 2.4% amid global oil price spike: February CPI rose 2.4% YoY, unchanged from January but above the Fed's 2% target. Gas prices have jumped 19% since the Iran conflict began, raising risks that inflation could reaccelerate if energy prices stay high. Ares reassures staff as redemptions rise: CEO Mike Arougheti held a town hall amid private credit volatility, after one of its funds received 5.6% in redemption requests last quarter. Shares fell 4.8% Wednesday and are now down 36% YTD. Morgan Stanley and Cliffwater cap private credit withdrawals: Cliffwater's $33B fund limited Q1 redemptions to 7% after investors requested a record 14%, while Morgan Stanley's $8B North Haven fund limited withdrawals at 5%. Private Credit managers have been trying to hold the line at the normal 5%, quarterly redemption levels. JPMorgan marks down private credit loans: The bank is reining in software-backed loans as collateral by private credit firms, reducing their borrowing capacity in its back-leverage business. Cursor is reportedly seeking funding at a $50B valuation, nearly doubling its late-2025 $29.3B mark and overcoming fears by some investors regarding the shift from Cursor toward competing tools like Claude Code. Salesforce's $25B bond sale saw muted demand: The company drew $36B in orders separated into eight parts, just 1.4x oversubscribed and well below Amazon's comparable $126B order book. Investors flagged AI disruption risks and a debt-funded $50B buyback. Meanwhile, Honeywell Aerospace raises $16B in debut bond sale: The aerospace unit priced a nine-part investment-grade deal ahead of its 2026 spinoff, with the longest 40-year tranche tightening to +107 bps over Treasuries.
Atlassian has announced 10% layoffs impacting 1,600 workers, citing an AI-driven shift in workforce needs. This appears to be the 2nd shoe to drop in software following Block's 40% reduction. Shares rose 2% after hours but remain down over 50% YTD. Nvidia announced a new investment into Thinking Machines Lab, an AI company founded by former OpenAI CTO Mira Murati. The deal will supply Thinking Machines with Nvidia's Vera Rubin AI accelerators, providing at least 1 GW of compute power. Warburg-backed PDG plans to raise $5B in debt to fund data center buildout across Asia, expanding capacity beyond its current 1.8 GW portfolio. PDG will borrow against future revenue, having "rock solid contracts with hyperscalers" already in place. Starboard took a $350mm stake in CarMax and is seeking two board seats. The activist sees an opportunity to boost performance by improving its customer experience, cutting costs, and changing its pricing structure. Google is selling its fiber unit, combining its GFiber unit into Astound Broadband to create an independent fiber provider. Grubhub is testing drone food delivery, partnering with drone delivery company Dexa for a 3-month trial in Green Brook, NJ. Iran conflict triggered major losses for hedge funds, with Citadel, Point72, Millennium, and Balyasny all down ~$1B or more as equities wavered and bonds sold off.
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M&A Transactions💭 |
UniFirst (NYS: UNF), provides uniform and workwear programs, was acquired for $5.2B by Cintas (NAS: CTAS). |
ExoAnalytic Solutions, operator of a space monitoring network, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired by Anduril. |
Talkspace (NAS: TALK), a behavioral healthcare company, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $869.696M by Universal Health Services (NYS: UHS). EV/EBITDA was 144.3x and EV/Revenue was 3.8x. Wells Fargo Advised on the sale. |
RedClick, provider of insurance services, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for EUR 337.0M by Zurich Insurance Group (SWX: ZURN). |
Raksul, provides printing services in Japan, was acquired for JPY 113.0M by Goldman Sachs, Mr. Yasutoshi Matsumoto, and Mr. Yasutoshi Matsumoto, and Mr. Yohei Nagami. |
Quinnox, provider of digital and technology services, was acquired for $290.0M by ASGN (NYS: ASGN). EV/Revenue was 2.9x. |
Mistral, manufacturer of defense and public safety systems, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $175.0M by Ondas (NAS: ONDS). |
Jiffy Lube International, operator of a quick-lube store chain, has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired for $1.3B by Monomoy Capital Partners. |
The Irish and Northern Irish P&C Business of generali real Estate has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for EUR 337.0M by Zurich Fund. Bank of America advised on the sale. |
Emmerson Resources (ASX: ERM),a Perth-based explorer with emerging gold royalty business, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for AUD 311.0M by Pan African Resources (LON: PAF). |
Champions Group, operator of business conglomerate, was acquired for $2.5B by Blackstone. Baird Capital, Piper Sandler, and William Blair & Company advised on the sale. |
Biocare Medical, developer of immunohistochemistry and molecular diagnostic reagents, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $950.0M by Agilent Technologies (NYS: A). EV/Revenue was 10.56x. Jefferies advised on the sale. |
ARKA Group, developer of a space technology platform, was acquired for $2.6B by CACI International. The transaction was supported by $1.3B of debt financing. Evercore Group and J.P. Morgan advised on the sale. |
Wood, an engineering and consultancy business, was acquired for $291.94M by Sidara. Europa Partners, Moelis & Company, Morgan Stanley, and Rothschild & Co advised on the sale. |
Scientia Vascular, manufacturer of endovascular medical devices, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $550.0M by Medtronic (NYS: MDT). |
Prestige Insurance Holdings, provider of insurance brokerage and underwriting services, was acquired for GBP 219.0M by AUB Group (ASX: AUB). |
Intersect Power, developer of utility-scale renewable energy, was acquired for $4.75B by Alphabet (NAS: GOGGL). J.P. Morgan and Morgan Stanley advised on the sale. |
C-United, operator of a cafe chain, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for JPY 44.092B by Colowide MD. |
CNL Healthcare Properties, operator of a real estate investment trust, was acquired for $1.831B by Sonida Senior Living (NYS: SNDA). EV/EBITDA was 21.4x and EV/Revenue was 4.66x. KeyBanc Capital Markets advised on the sale. |
Private Placement Transactions💭 |
Solstice Oncology, company is in stealth mode, raised $1.21B of venture funding from Harbour BioMed. |
Phoenix Tailings, operator of a metal refining company, raised $106.58M through a combination of Series B-1, Series B-2, and Series B-3 venture funding in a deal led by Envisioning Partners at a pre-money valuation of $288.42M. |
Nscale, developer of AI infrastructure, raised $2.0B of Series C venture funding led by 8090 Industries and Aker at a pre-money valuation of $12.6B. |
Fangqing Technology, distributor of industrial automation and visual intelligence solutions, raised CNY 1.0B of Pre-A+ venture funding from 37 Interactive Entertainment, Ziamen C&D Corporation, and Peakvest. |
VAST Data, developer of a data orchestration platform, raised $1.0B of venture funding from undisclosed investors at a pre-money valuation of $29.0B. |
Rhoda AI, developer of AI driven robotics platform, raised $450.0M of Series A venture funding led by Mayfield Fund and Premji. |
Nexthop AI, developer of AI infrastructure designed for large-scale cloud operators, raised $500.0M of venture funding led by Andreessen Horowitz at a pre-money valuation of $3.7B. |
Legora, developer of an AI assistant, raised $550.0M of Series D venture funding led by Accel at a pre-money valuation of $5.0B. |
Koch IP Holdings, operator of a multinational conglomerate corporation, raised $187.52M of venture funding from undisclosed investors. |
Kai Cyber, developer of an AI intelligence cybersecurity platform, raised $125.0M of venture funding led by Evolution Equity Partners. |
Eridu, developer of an advanced hardware and infrastructure technology, raised $200.0M of Series A venture funding led by Hudson River Trading, Capricorn Investment Group, Socratic Partners, and John Doerr. |
Armadin, developer of a cybersecurity platform, raised $189.9M of Series A venture funding led by Accel. |
Advanced Machine Intelligence, developer of advanced AI computational systems, raised $1.03B of seed funding led by Cathay Innovation, Greycroft, HV Capital Investors, Bezos Expeditions, and Hiro Capital at a pre-money valuation of $3.5B. |
Vima Therapeutics, developer of oral therapeutics, raised $100.0M of Series A venture funding led by Atlas Ventures at a pre-money valuation of $18.0M. |
Quince, operator of an e-commerce clothing company, raised $500.0M of Series E venture funding led by ICONIQ Growth at a pre-money valuation of $9.6B. |
LightWheel AI, developer of data-centered large-scale models, raised CNY 1.0B of Series A++ and A+++ venture funding from AUX Group, New Hope Group, and Jiantou Huake Investment. |
Lenzo, developer of advanced computing hardware, raised $500.0M of Seed funding from Sony innovation Fund, Mitsubishi UFJ Capital, and Monozukuri Ventures. |
Alan, developer of an online digital insurance platform, raised EUR 100.0M of venture funding led by Index Ventures at a pre-money valuation of EUR 4.9B. |
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Odds of the Day 🍒 |
Here's some Soccer (Football) fun. |
Polymarket traders are pricing in a 23% chance of Bayern Munich winning the Champions League. |
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Noteworthy Chart 🧭 |
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