March 12, 2026
Oil's Next Stop as Iran War Continues
Dear Subscriber,
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| By Bob Czeschin |
“No more forever wars!”
That was President Trump’s signature promise to voters across three presidential campaigns.
And indeed, the administration’s initial description of the Iran War was “a limited campaign” of mere days.
That was before the bombs started flying.
Last week, Trump and Secretary of State Rubio said operations might last four or five weeks.
But Trump later claimed an open-ended timeline to "do whatever it takes" to win in Iran.
Meanwhile, the Iran conflict is rapidly metastasizing into a regional war across multiple theaters.
For example …
- With its liquified natural gas production (LNG) facilities under attack by Iran, Qatar joined the war on the U.S.-Israeli side. And shot down a pair of Iranian jets over the Persian Gulf.
- On March 3, Iranian air attacks caused operations to halt at Port of Salala, Oman’s biggest seaport.
- The day before, Iranian drones struck runways at Britain’s Royal Air Force base in Cyprus.
- France is sending an aircraft carrier to the Mediterranean, according to President Macron.
- Turkey shot down an Iranian missile over the eastern Mediterranean just before it entered Turkish airspace. It warned future attacks would evoke a massive counter-barrage.
- Israel reacted to fresh rocket attacks by Iran proxy Hezbollah by sending ground troops into southern Lebanon to dismantle Hezbollah’s military infrastructure.
- The American CIA is reportedly arming and training Kurds in Iraq to cross into Iran to spark an uprising.
- Iranian missiles and drones hit the U.S. embassy in Riyadh and set fire to Ras Tanura, Saudi Aramco's giant oil complex. This led Saudi Arabia to invoke its Mutual Defense pact with Pakistan.Which is now reportedly amassing heavy artillery along its border with Iran.
No wonder why oil prices rose in a big hurry.
On Monday, West Texas Intermediate briefly touched $115 a barrel. And Brent crude, the international benchmark, surged to $110. They’ve since settled into the $90 area.
Oil Blasts Above $110. Iran Says $200 Is Next.
There’s no surer guarantee of triple-digit oil prices than more and more Mideast countries getting sucked into the same war.
The attack on Ras Tanura especially set off alarm bells across the region.
That’s because it’s an export terminal able to handle the largest super-tankers tankers afloat.
It’s also a refinery that processes 550,000 barrels a day of crude (into gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, naphtha, propane, butane and asphalt) for the Gulf, Asian and European markets.
Accordingly, any operational downtime at Ras Tanura and other key petroleum loading/refining facilities — all within easy Iranian drone range — can quickly cause turmoil in global markets.
Trump may have sunk Iran’s tiny navy.But the possibility of drone and missile attacks remains.
Also, in famously narrow waters like the Strait of Hormuz, even marine mines can be fatal obstacles.
Plus, tankers are very slow-moving targets.
That makes them vulnerable to swarms of small, fiberglass speedboats …
Ones packed with plastique …
And piloted by jihadists eager for a taste of Muslim heaven.
So, despite losing its navy, Iranian threats to shipping have nearly choked off maritime traffic through the Strait.
Already, Kuwait, UAE, Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Qatar have been forced to curtail oil and gas production as a result.
Which is a key reason oil prices are going ballistic.
‘Boots on the Ground’ Are Next
High-tech advances in low-cost drones and AI-assisted target selection are making this conflict a tour de force in precision aerial bombardment.
But despite gee-whiz technology, a troublesome fact remains …
No war has ever been won by air power alone.
The Pentagon had undisputed control of the skies over Vietnam and Afghanistan. But still managed to lose both wars.
Winning a war means seizing and holding enemy territory. That requires ground forces.
And U.S. voters will simply not tolerate sending American soldiers into another Mideast meat-grinder.
That explains Trump’s interest in training and arming Iraqi Kurds.
They have relatives across the border in Iran they’ve long dreamed of creating a unified state with.
But Turkey is an implacable enemy of Kurdish statehood. And unafraid of using force to strangle an infant Kurdistan in its crib.
Another guerilla group likely already involved in the war (via the Mossad and CIA) is the People's Mojahedin Organization of Iran.
Also, no friend of Teheran, are al-Qaeda insurgents from historic Sunni minority populations along Iran’s southwest border.
America previously supported al-Qaeda insurgents in Syria and may do so again.
What This Can Mean for Investors
Without ground troops, the air battle over Iran will likely devolve into a bloody war of attrition.
One that can only be won by outlasting an exhausted enemy.
On the other hand, enlisting various tribal militias as proxies for U.S. ground forces is not really a serviceable solution.
Of course, they will happily accept American military equipment and supplies.
But they also have their own agendas.
And in some cases, they detest each other more than the enemy Washington wants them to fight — Iran.
In other words, no matter how the fighting plays out, another “nearly forever war” now looms.
And the impact on oil prices is just getting started.
Yes, crude has come down since spiking to $115 over the weekend. But that’s just the start.
The longer this war drags on, the more both sides are going to target oil and energy infrastructure.
And in this respect, the Mideast truly has lots to shoot at.
The last time Iran fought a major war, oil prices shot up 4x.
Fortunately, it’s not too late to get in on the action.
Add some exploration-and-production company stocks to your portfolio, such as the Oil & Gas Exploration & Production SPDR (XOP).
I recently suggested XOP as a buy.
It’s up over 7% since the first wave of missiles was fired on Feb. 28.
And XOP is still poised for growth.
If you’re looking for specific stocks to buy, concentrate on quality regional oil and gas producers — in the Americas, Australia and the North Sea.
In other words, far enough away from Mideast turmoil to be effectively immune from collateral war damage.
A second recommendation would be gold. But now there is another way to play the yellow metal than trying to bank on the right miner …
Chris Graebe has a pre-IPO company that offers a backdoor way to play gold, silver, copper and other “rare earth” metals and minerals that are in short supply.
Not only is this startup’s first facility already operational …
But its process is 10x faster … and requires up to 70x less capital expenditure … than traditional mining.
Not only does this company “mine” precious metals quickly and cost-effectively …
But Chris says he wouldn’t be surprised if this company IPOs in the not-too-distant future.
Chris has a lot to say about this timely pre-IPO opportunity.
But the video where he shares all his research goes offline very soon.
So, I suggest you watch it now before he takes it down.
Best,
Bob Czeschin
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