sport football: March 8th - The Week Ahead

The Week Ahead Of Us 🔍

It looks like we have another crazy week ahead of us.

Oil is trading at $107/barrel as the Strait of Hormuz has effectively grinded to a stop for a week now and oil production in the middle east is nosediving. Trump has ordered diplomats to leave Saudi Arabia, and Iran has named Mojtaba Khamenei, the previous supreme leader's son, as the new Ayatollah.

According to Axios, the U.S. was reportedly "dismayed" by Israeli strikes on 30 Iranian fuel depots on Saturday. The U.S. is concerned that infrastructure attacks will drive Iranian support for the new regime and rapidly increase oil prices, driving the first major disagreement since the two allies started the war last Saturday.

Given the war and weak job numbers on Friday, all 3 major indices are now down on the year, with S&P futures -1.7% and Nasdaq futures -1.7% currently.

The price you pay at the pump will be on the move higher - with the avg. price of gasoline at $3.32/gallon on Friday, up 11% w/w.

The software recovery continued last week, with our Software bifurcation writeup really playing out quite nicely. We may see the Software rebound stall out though given the broader risk-off environment we're entering.

Let's get into it. Here's a look at earnings this week.

Monday: Vail Resorts, Hewlett Packard, Casey's General Stores
Tuesday: Oracle, Kohl's, BioNTech, United Natural Foods, Franco-Nevada, AeroVironment
Wednesday: Campbell's Company, UiPath, Petco, Bumble, Descartes Systems
Thursday: Adobe, Dollar General, Ulta, Lennar, Dick's Sporting Goods, Wheaton Precious Metals

Here's a look at economic data this week (estimates are in quotations).

Monday: Consumer Inflation Expectations Feb (3.1%)
Tuesday: NFIB optimism index (99.6), Existing home sales (3.85)
Wednesday: Consumer price index (0.3%), CPI y/y (2.4%), Core CPI (0.2%), Core CPI y/y (2.5%), Monthly U.S. federal budget
Thursday: Initial jobless claims (215,000), U.S. trade deficit (-$65.3B), Housing starts (1.33M), Building permits (1.40M)
Friday: GDP first revision (1.5%), Personal income (0.5%), Personal spending (0.2%), PCE index delayed (0.3%), PCE y/y (2.9%), Core PCE index (0.4%), Core PCE index y/y (3.1%), Durable-goods orders (1.5%), Durable-goods minus transportation, Job openings (6.8M), Consumer sentiment prelim (55.0)

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Earnings Corner 💸

$COST ( ▲ 1.58% ) Top and bottom line beat while comps rose to 6.7% vs. 6.3%, driven by strong membership demand and steady demand for value focused bulk products. Membership fees reached $1.36B, highlighting the strength of Costco's recurring revenue model. Management also said any tariff refunds would be passed back to members through lower prices.
$BJ ( ▼ 1.7% ) Revenue missed at $5.44B vs. $5.54B while EPS beat slightly. Membership fee income was up 10.9% and digitally enabled comps rose 31% as more customers used online pickup and delivery services. Comparable club sales were soft at 1.6% and merchandise margins fell 50bps due to mix shift into lower margin electronics and grocery price investments. EPS guidance came in below expectations as the company ramps spending on new club openings and infrastructure.
$KR ( ▲ 3.55% ) Revenue missed slightly at $34.7B while EPS beat at $1.28 vs. $1.20. Sales only grew 1.2% y/y as lower fuel prices weighed on revenue, SSSS excluding fuel rose 2.4% driven by steady grocery demand and e-commerce growth. 2026 guidance came roughly in line with expectations.
$GAP ( ▼ 14.41% ) Revenue was in roughly in line at $4.24B while EPS missed slightly. Results were pressured by historic winter storms that forced around 800 temporary store closures. Performance was mixed, with strong growth at the Gap brand and Banana Republic offset by continued weakness at Athleta where comps fell 10% as the brand works through product and positioning issues. Gross margin declined due to tariffs, but FY guidance came in roughly in line.
$VSCO ( ▼ 11.35% ) Revenue beat at $2.27B and EPS beat at $2.77 vs $2.52. Comparable sales jumped to 8% vs 5.6%, marking the company's strongest streak of comp growth in four years. However operating margin declined to 10.1% from 12.7% amid higher marketing and operating costs.

On The Move 📈 📉

Jefferies $JEF ( ▼ 13.53% ) fell after Western Alliance sued the firm for allegedly declining to make $126mm in payments due under a forbearance agreement tied to First Brands.
Marvell Technology $MRVL ( ▲ 18.35% ) surged after posting strong Q4 results, with revenue reaching $8.19B, marking a sharp turnaround from the previous quarter when shares dropped 7%.
Lamb Weston $LW ( ▲ 0.83% ) is facing activist pressure from Starboard, who wants the french-fry maker to cut costs.

IPO Roundup 📍

Roark is exploring an IPO for Inspire Brands, the parent of Dunkin', Arby's, and Jimmy John's, with early deliberations of raising $2B, though no final decisions have been made.
MiniMed raised $560mm in an IPO that priced below its initial range of $25 to $28. Shares were sold at $20 each, giving the company a market value of $5.6B.
Robinhood's venture fund slumps on debut: Robinhood Ventures Fund I $RVI ( 0.0% ) fell in its NYSE debut after pricing at $25 and closing at $21.

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Today's Headlines 📖🍿

Jobs Miss: Nonfarm payrolls fell by 92k in February, well below expectations of a 50k gain and a sharp reversal from January's 126k increase. Losses in healthcare, manufacturing, and information services helped drive the decline as the unemployment rate climbed to 4.4% vs. expectations of 4.3%.
Oracle layoffs: Oracle is planning to cut thousands of jobs, affecting divisions across the company, as part of an effort to cut costs amidst heavy data center spend. High capex is expected to push Oracle's cash flow negative in the coming years before turning positive again in 2030.
BlackRock limits withdrawals from its $26B HPS Corporate Lending Fund, capping repurchases at 5% vs. shareholder requests of 9.3%. The 5% gate has always been in the fund's terms, but it hasn't been triggered before.
Private credit defaults hit a record 9.2% in 2025 according to a report from Fitch, up from 8.1% in 2024. Smaller issuers with under $25mm in earnings made up the majority of the defaults.
Morningstar's Moat revisions: Ratings were upgraded for CrowdStrike and Cloudflare based on the belief that cybersecurity spending will rise as AI deployments increase the attack surface area. Moat ratings on six other software companies, including Adobe and Salesforce, were downgraded as AI has disrupted horizontal software.
Blue Owl backs Vista's $3B acquisition of Nexthink, including leading a $750M debt package with a $650M term loan priced at S+550 and a $100M revolver.
JP Morgan is shifting more of the $15.5B financing package for the Electronic Arts LBO into high-yield bonds, following more favorable dynamics. Mix is expected to include $9.5B of high-yield bonds and $6B of leveraged loans.
European Direct lenders stats: Goldman found that since 2017, ~$38B of senior private loans to 146 companies have turned into situations where lenders take the keys, showing a rare glimpse into European private credit restructurings.
Circle and Stripe are racing to build new payment systems where AI agents transact in stablecoins, positioning agentic payments as a use case to justify infrastructure buildout. If material, this would be a dramatic disruption to Visa, Mastercard, and American Express.
KKR is exploring the sale of CoolIT Systems in a deal that could value the data center cooling company at more than $3B.
Balyasny has built agentic AI platforms, powered by OpenAI, to automate deep research tasks, analyze central bank speech, and monitor/update merger arbitrage deal probabilities.

M&A Transactions💭

Medsystems, distributor of medical systems, was acquired for BRL 18.27B by Classys (KRX: 214150).

Mace Consult, provider of business consulting, was acquired for GBP 750.0M by The Goldman Sachs Group. The transaction values the company at GBP 1.0B.

Isem, manufacturer of luxury rigid boxes, was acquired for AED 704.0M by 2PointZero. As part of the transaction, Peninsula Capital and minority investors will own the remaining 39.2%.

Blue Bottle Coffee, operator of a coffee network, was acquired for $400.0M by Centurium Capital. EV/Revenue was 1.6x. Morgan Stanley advised on the sale.

Telegraph Media Group, operator of a media publishing company, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for GBP 575.0M by Axel Springer,

Cogentrix Energy, developer of independent power generation assets, was acquired for $4.0B by Vistra (NYS: VST). Evercore Group advised on the sale.

Amedeo Air Four Plus (LON: AA4), engaged in acquiring, leasing, and then selling aircrafts, has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired for GBP 190.0M by Lesha Bank. EV/Net Income was 8.38x and EV/Revenue was 1.1x.

Tracim Cimento, operator of a cement factory, was acquired for $190.0M by Titan (BRU: TITC).

TCR International, provider of aviation management services, has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired for EUR 1.4B by Global Infrastructure Partners. The transaction values the company at EUR 1.61B. Deutsche Bank advised on the sale.

Private Placement Transactions💭

Vast Space, developer of a commercial space station, raised $500.0M of venture funding through a combination of debt and equity. $300.0M of Series A equity was led by Balerion Space Venture.

Science, developer of brain-computer interface technology, raised $230.0M of Series C venture funding led by Khosla Ventures and Lightspeed Venture Partners at a pre-money valuation of $1.27B.

Robotera, developer of a humanoid robot, raised CNY 1.0B of Series B venture funding from Samsung Venture Investment, Sintel, and CICC Private Equity at a pre-money valuation of CNY 9.0B.

PaXini Tech, developer of smart tactile sensors, raised CNY 1.0B of Series B venture funding led by HPR Capital, Kaitai Capital, and Quzhou State Owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission Information Security Management at a pre-money valuation of CNY 9.0B.

Nominal, developer of a data infrastructure and analytics platform, raised $155.0M of Series B venture funding in a deal co-led by Founders Fund and Sequoia Capital at a pre-money valuation of $845.0M.

GigaAI, developer of a spatial intelligence and world model platform, raised 1.0B Yuan of Pre-B venture funding from Huaqiang Capital, Xingyuan Capital, and Optics Valley Industry Investment.

Cognito Therapeutics, developer of digital therapeutics, raised $105.0M of Series C venture funding led by Morningside Group, Starbloom Capital, and IAG Capital Partners.

Atavistik Bio, operator of a biopharmaceutical company, raised $160.0M of Series B venture funding led by The Column Group and Nextech Invest.

Odds of the Day 🍒

Polymarket traders expect the war to escalate further and are pricing in a 69% chance of US forces entering Iran this year.

Noteworthy Chart 🧭

With AI advancing rapidly, NBC polling found that it does not poll well and is viewed very unfavorably by many. Expect this to be a massive political talking point for the midterms and 2028 election.

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