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SpaceX IPO Is Real. Here's What $1.5 Trillion Actually Buys You. |
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Quick Market News: |
Citigroup: "Arm has not taken a baby step — it jumped straight into full chip development." Nvidia: is now trading at 21.6× forward earnings — its cheapest forward P/E since the AI buildout began in 2023. Amazon (AMZN): Citi reiterated Buy, raised target to $285. AWS revenue projected +28% next quarter on Anthropic + OpenAI partnerships. Goldman Sachs: oil "will plummet fast" in a confirmed deal scenario. Airlines bouncing: United Airlines (UAL) and Delta (DAL) seeing gains on lower fuel cost expectations for Q2 margins. Fundrise Innovation Fund (VCX) — which owns SpaceX stakes — surged +70% in a single session Wednesday, up over 1,500% since its March 19 public debut. Have $500? Invest in Elon's AI Masterplan*
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Something happened this week that most people haven't fully processed yet. SpaceX is preparing to file its IPO prospectus, possibly as soon as this week, according to reports from The Information and confirmed by multiple sources familiar with the plans. |
And two days before that news broke, Elon Musk stood in Austin, Texas, and unveiled a joint venture called TERAFAB — a $20 billion to $25 billion chip-building facility that will involve Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI under one roof. |
Here's the thing: these two stories are not separate events. They're the same story. And if you're an investor, you need to understand what's actually happening here before the rest of the market catches up. |
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What the SpaceX IPO Actually Looks Like |
 | SpaceX valuation scenarios from private market to analyst projections. Source: Trader Insights Media Research, 2026. |
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Let's start with the numbers. SpaceX is targeting a valuation of roughly $1.5 trillion and a capital raise of more than $75 billion, according to reporting from Euronews and The Information. If that happens, it would shatter the all-time record held by Saudi Aramco's $29.4 billion IPO in 2019. |
The expected listing date is around June 2026, though that window could shift. |
Conservative analysts put the floor valuation around $800 billion, supported by internal share sales at approximately $420 per share. |
Mid-range projections land at $1.0 to $1.25 trillion, accounting for the company's xAI acquisition. |
Bullish scenarios, backed by analysts like ARK Invest's Cathie Wood, push toward $1.5 to $2.5 trillion by 2030. |
| ❝ | | | "SpaceX's revenue is expected to reach $22 to $24 billion in 2026, growing at more than 50% year-over-year. Much of that comes from Starlink, which is expanding its direct-to-cellular capabilities globally." | | | | Payload Space Research, cited by multiple analysts, March 2026 |
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What's notable is that SpaceX is already profitable. The company reported an estimated $8 billion in profit last year on $15 to $16 billion in revenue. That's not a startup burning cash, it's a real business. For context, most IPOs at this scale are companies still searching for profitability. SpaceX is not. |
 | SpaceX revenue and estimated profit trajectory. Sources: Payload Space, Motley Fool, analyst estimates, 2026. |
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Enter TERAFAB — The Most Ambitious Factory Ever Announced |
 | Tesla projected chip requirements across FSD, Optimus robots, and Robotaxi fleet through 2030. Source: Morgan Stanley, Trader Insights Media Research. |
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Over the weekend in Austin, Musk unveiled TERAFAB. The name says it all. A joint venture between Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI, TERAFAB will consolidate every stage of chip production under one roof, including design, fabrication, memory, and packaging. |
It will be built on the North Campus of Giga Texas, in a building planned to be even larger than Giga Texas itself, which is already one of the biggest buildings on Earth. |
Initial costs are projected at $20 to $25 billion. Musk was blunt about why: "We either build the Terafab or we don't have the chips." He said established manufacturers like TSMC and Samsung are expanding too slowly for what his companies need. |
Current global AI compute output, in his estimate, is about 20 gigawatts per year, but roughly the rest of the world's output combined amounts to only 2% of what his companies require. |
That's a bold claim. But here's the math that backs it up. |
Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Percoco noted that Giga Texas alone is expected to have capacity for 10 million humanoid robots per year, requiring roughly 20 million chips, about six times Tesla's current chip demand across its entire auto business. |
And if Tesla hits its stated long-term target of 100 million Optimus robots annually, that would require more than 200 million chips, or over 50 times current demand. |
TERAFAB will target two chip types: an edge-inference processor for Tesla's FSD, Optimus, and Robotaxi systems, and a high-power space-hardened variant for SpaceX satellites and orbital data centers. |
The target process node is 2-nanometer technology, the most advanced in the world today. |
| ❝ | | | "This is the most epic chip-building exercise in history, by far." | | | | Elon Musk, Austin TX, March 2026 |
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What This Means for Tesla Shareholders |
Here's where it gets interesting for existing investors. Tesla is publicly traded today. SpaceX is not, at least not yet. So what does all of this mean for someone holding TSLA shares? |
First, the positive case. A SpaceX IPO removes a major pressure point for Tesla. Historically, whenever SpaceX needed capital or xAI needed funds, Musk would sell Tesla stock, creating price pressure and frustrating shareholders. With SpaceX having its own public financing platform, that dynamic changes. |
Second, the synergy story is real. Starlink integration into Tesla vehicles is set to launch in North America in 2026, enabling satellite-backed over-the-air updates, enhanced FSD data transmission, and infotainment improvements. |
The Grok AI chatbot, owned by xAI and now a subsidiary of SpaceX, is being evaluated as the conversational interface for Optimus robots. These aren't just talking points, they're live product integrations. |
But there's a risk worth naming directly. Gary Black, managing partner at The Future Fund, warned publicly this week that some Tesla shareholders may sell TSLA shares to fund their SpaceX IPO allocation. He expects the SpaceX debut to be a "clean" IPO, with no merger with Tesla. His view is that institutional investors would pull back if a dilutive post-IPO acquisition were on the table. |
His track record on this kind of analysis is solid. It's worth taking seriously. |
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Space Economy — The Bigger Picture |
 | Global space economy projected to reach $1.8 trillion by 2035. Source: McKinsey Global Institute, April 2024. |
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McKinsey estimates the global space economy will grow from $630 billion in 2023 to $1.8 trillion by 2035. SpaceX already dominates the commercial launch business. In 2025, Falcon 9 rockets completed more than 160 launches, representing more than half of all orbital launches globally, by every country and company combined. |
If Starlink hits its subscriber growth targets and orbital data centers become a real business, those McKinsey numbers could look conservative. That's not a prediction. But it's context worth having. |
 | Year-to-date performance of key stocks in the space and chip ecosystem, 2026. Source: Market data, March 25, 2026. |
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Risks — And There Are Real Ones |
⚠ Key Risks to Consider Before the IPO |
At $1.5 trillion, SpaceX would trade at roughly 60 to 65 times projected 2026 revenue. That's not cheap. Morgan Stanley estimated TERAFAB alone would require $35 to $45 billion in total capital investment to reach meaningful chip output. Initial chip production, even under an aggressive build schedule, is unlikely before mid-2028. Musk has no background in semiconductor fabrication, and his history includes ambitious timelines that slip. SpaceX has never filed public financial statements, so investors are working from secondary data and analyst estimates until the S-1 drops. The xAI acquisition adds integration complexity that is hard to underwrite. |
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Stock Comparison Table — Key Names to Watch |
 | *SpaceX figures are based on internal secondary market transactions as of March 2026. Not an official market price. Source: Market data, March 25, 2026. Past performance does not guarantee future results. |
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Bottom Line — What to Do With All of This |
The SpaceX IPO is not hype. It's a filing that could happen this week. And TERAFAB is not a PowerPoint, it's a construction project with a site already chosen in Austin, Texas. |
What we know: SpaceX is profitable, growing at more than 50% per year, and about to become publicly tradeable. Tesla is the only publicly available Musk equity right now, and it's up roughly 38% over the past year. The satellite economy is real and expanding. The chip demand for AI and robotics is not slowing down. |
What we don't know: how the S-1 will read, what the actual IPO price will be, whether TERAFAB will hit its production timelines, and whether a $1.5 trillion valuation will hold after the first day of trading. |
Here's what we'd say to any investor watching this: understand what you're buying before you buy it. The story is compelling. The risks are real. And the window between now and June 2026 is the most important research period you have. |
from Jeff Brown: Introducing "Elon Musk's Day-One Retirement Plan"* |
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Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions. |
Items marked with an asterisk (*) are promotional and help support this newsletter at no cost to readers. |
**Disclaimer: Immersed is offering securities through the use of an Offering Statement that has been qualified by the Securities and Exchange Commission under Tier II of Regulation A. The valuation is set by the Company and there is currently no public market for the Company's Common Stock. Please read the offering circular and related risks at invest.immersed.com. Nasdaq ticker "IMRS" has been reserved by Immersed and any potential listing is subject to future regulatory approval and market conditions. |
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