First a message from our friends at The Oxford Club (Sponsor) |
Dear Reader, |
When Elon Musk announces the SpaceX IPO, most investors will be locked out. |
That's how it works... |
The big banks. |
The hedge funds. |
The Wall Street insiders. |
They get in early... while everyone else waits. |
By the time regular investors can buy shares, the easy money is gone. |
But I just got off the phone with Dr. Mark Skousen... the newest editor at Oxford Club. |
The same economist who's worked for the CIA and personally met four US presidents. |
And he's found something extraordinary... |
A 'backdoor' way into SpaceX... BEFORE the IPO is even announced. |
And he is giving away the name and ticker right now... for FREE. |
Dr. Skousen has put together a detailed report on this unprecedented opportunity. |
Click here to get your free PRE-IPO "SpaceX" ticker. |
Good investing, |
Rachel Gearhart
Publisher, The Oxford Club |
|
BONUS ARTICLE |
Dell's $50B AI Server Target Just Lit Up the Tape — Is DELL Still "Cheap"? |
Hey there, bargain hunter… |
Dell (DELL) just did the thing "boring hardware companies" aren't supposed to do in 2026: |
It made the market care about next year more than the quarter. |
Shares jumped in extended trading after Dell forecast FY27 revenue of $138–$142B and said it expects annual AI server revenue to grow ~103% to about $50B. |
This isn't a normal beat-and-raise. |
This is the market trying to decide whether Dell has quietly become a core toll booth in the AI buildout—while most people still file it under "PCs and printers." |
Now let's translate the hype into numbers you can actually underwrite. |
|
Scoreboard / What Happened |
Here's the clean tape read from tonight: |
After-hours move: Dell shares were up ~12% in extended trading on the initial reaction. Q4 revenue: $33.4B (record) vs. $31.73B expected. Q4 adjusted EPS: $3.89 vs. $3.53 expected. FY27 revenue guide: $138B to $142B (midpoint ~$140B) vs. Street around $125.54B (LSEG). AI servers: Dell expects annual AI server revenue ~ $50B in FY27 (up ~103%). Shareholder returns: +20% dividend hike and +$10B added to buyback authorization. Scale signal: Dell says it has 4,000+ AI server customers (including xAI and CoreWeave). Full-year FY26 (press release summary): $113.5B revenue (+19% YoY); EPS $8.68 (+36%); non-GAAP EPS $10.30 (+27%).
|
If you're looking for the "why now," it's in the guidance math: Dell just told the market the AI infrastructure ramp is not a side quest—it's the main story. |
|
The Real Reason |
The market isn't paying up for "Dell the PC maker." |
It's repricing "Dell the AI factory integrator." |
Mechanism #1: AI capex is still accelerating, and Dell sits in the spend path |
Reuters notes Big Tech is expected to spend at least $630B building AI infrastructure this year. |
That kind of spend doesn't just buy chips. It buys: |
|
Dell is telling you it's capturing enough of that to model $50B of annual AI server revenue in FY27. |
Mechanism #2: Dell's mix is changing fast — and the ISG print proves it |
Dell's Infrastructure Solutions Group (ISG) revenue jumped 73% to $19.60B in Q4. Client Solutions Group (CSG) revenue rose 14% to $13.49B. |
Cheap Investor translation: |
|
A quarter where ISG grows that much faster than CSG is how you get a multiple debate. |
Mechanism #3: The "tariff / cost / memory" problem didn't kill the thesis — it forced pricing power to show up |
Reuters flags trade regulations and rising memory chip costs pushing Dell (and peers) to implement price increases to offset cost pressures. |
This matters because a lot of investors have one lingering fear: |
"AI servers are high revenue but low quality revenue." |
Meaning: great top-line, but margins get chewed by components, competition, and customer negotiating leverage. |
Dell's guide implies they believe they can scale through that anyway—at least enough to put $138–$142B FY27 revenue on the board. |
|
Company/Theme Deep Dive: What Dell Is Actually Selling (In Plain English) |
Dell is selling three things that matter in an AI boom: |
AI-optimized servers at industrial scale
This is the shovels-and-pickaxes layer. Hyperscalers and "AI-native" cloud builders need capacity delivered fast. End-to-end enterprise infrastructure
Storage + networking + deployment + service relationships. The customer wants "it works," not "here are 19 boxes." A bridge product for normal enterprises
Not every buyer is Meta. A lot of spend comes from enterprises that want AI capacity but don't want to build a custom supply chain.
|
That last point is why Dell mentioning 4,000+ AI server customers is such a loud signal.
It argues demand is broadening beyond a handful of mega buyers. (continued below…) |
This Critical Mineral's Up 122% in the Last 12 Months(sponsor) |
|
No, not gold. It's lithium, which just hit two-year highs. What's spurring this "white gold" rush? Critical to everything from AI to robotics to EVs, lithium demand will grow 5X by 2040. As Elon Musk put it, "It's a license to print money." Enter EnergyX. Their patented tech can recover 3X as much lithium as traditional methods. That's why General Motors led a $50M investment round. Now you can join too.
Join 40k+ people as an EnergyX investor before their share price increases after today.
DISCLOSURE: EnergyX's Regulation A offering has been qualified by the SEC. Before investing, carefully review the offering circular, including the risk factors. The offering circular is available at invest.energyx.com |
|
(…continued) |
Data Section: The Numbers That Actually Matter (And the Ones People Will Misread) |
1) Growth engine confirmation: Q4 record revenue + ISG acceleration |
|
This is the cleanest "AI mix shift" snapshot you can ask for. |
2) FY27 guidance is the real catalyst |
|
That gap is why the stock ripped. Guidance gaps create re-rating attempts. |
3) The $50B AI server target is a thesis fork in the road |
|
If Dell hits anything close to that, the market will have a hard time treating DELL like a sleepy hardware name. |
If it misses, the stock becomes a cautionary tale about "AI adjacency" optimism. |
4) Full-year FY26 baseline (the floor you're building off) |
Business Wire's release summary shows: |
|
So Dell is guiding a step-up from a stronger base, not a weak one. |
5) Capital return is your "downside governor" |
|
Cheap Investor angle: when a company guides aggressively and sweetens capital return, it's signaling confidence in cash generation durability—important for a name the market often stereotypes as low-margin hardware. |
|
Valuation & "Is It Cheap?" |
Let's be honest: "cheap" doesn't mean "low P/E." It means: |
underappreciated relative to the earnings path the market will accept as real. |
Here's the setup: |
|
The stock closed around $121.45 today per market data, before the after-hours repricing.
If the stock is up ~12% after hours, you're suddenly talking about a mid-$130s handle. (That's not a forecast—just the tape math.) |
Cheap Investor framing:
DELL can still be "cheap" even after a pop if FY27 numbers prove durable and the market keeps modeling it like a PC company. |
But it becomes "not cheap" fast if AI server economics look like low-margin pass-through revenue. |
So the real valuation question is not the multiple. |
It's the quality of the AI revenue. |
|
Bull / Base / Bear Scenarios |
Bull case: Dell becomes a core AI infrastructure winner (not a trade, a rerating) |
What has to go right: |
Dell executes toward the $138–$142B FY27 revenue range AI servers scale toward ~$50B without margin blow-ups Customer base stays broad (the 4,000+ number keeps growing)
|
What it looks like on the tape: |
|
Base case: Strong growth, but the market keeps a leash on the multiple |
What happens: |
Dell grows fast, but investors stay skeptical about component costs, competitive pricing, and cyclicality. Stock chops in a wide range while fundamentals catch up.
|
This is the most "Cheap Investor friendly" path because it creates repeated entries instead of one clean rip. |
Bear case: AI server growth is real, but economics disappoint (or demand becomes fragile) |
What breaks: |
Memory costs + competition compress profitability more than expected. A couple of mega customers dominate ordering behavior and push pricing down. The Street starts calling the guide "peak-cycle optimism."
|
Tape behavior: |
|
|
Actionable Plan (No Hype, Just Process) |
1) Decide what kind of buyer you are |
|
Both can work—just don't confuse them. |
2) A simple 1/3 – 1/3 – 1/3 scale-in framework |
Starter position: only after the post-earnings volatility cools (don't chase the first candle). Add #2: if the stock holds key support during the first "market down day." Add #3: after you see follow-through data—either backlog/order commentary next quarter or reaffirmation of FY27 trajectory.
|
3) What to watch next (the real catalysts) |
Any updates that support (or walk back) the $50B AI server run-rate goal Whether ISG growth stays dominant vs. CSG (mix shift persistence) Pricing commentary: are price increases sticking against costs? Capital return follow-through (buyback pace, dividend policy durability)
|
|
Cheap Investor Checklist / Scorecard (Next Week + Next Quarter) |
Track these 8 items like a bargain hunter with a clipboard: |
DELL post-earnings hold: does it keep most of the after-hours repricing into regular sessions? ISG vs CSG growth spread: does ISG stay the engine? AI server revenue trajectory: any new datapoints toward the ~$50B FY27 target Customer concentration risk: does management keep emphasizing breadth (4,000+ customers) Component cost pressure: especially memory; does it improve or persist? Street estimate drift: do analysts move FY27 numbers toward Dell's range, or stay skeptical? Buyback/dividend details: pace matters more than announcements AI capex headlines: if the $630B spend expectation changes, Dell sentiment will move with it
|
|
Bottom Line |
If Dell were "just PCs," it wouldn't be guiding $138–$142B FY27 revenue and talking about ~$50B of annual AI server revenue. |
The cheap angle is simple: |
The market is still learning to price Dell like AI infrastructure—without overpaying for low-quality revenue. |
If Dell proves AI servers are profitable, scalable, and broad-based, the re-rating can stick. |
If AI revenue is real but economically thin, you'll get volatility—and your edge becomes patience, sizing, and buying fear instead of candles. |
If you want, tell me your risk posture (conservative vs aggressive) and whether you prefer AI infrastructure, enterprise hardware, or software, and I'll build a 10-name "AI factory Cheaplist" with a simple scorecard for each. |
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. Always do your own research before making investment decisions. |
|
|
|
|
Tidak ada komentar:
Posting Komentar