Interest on US debt hits $1 trillion... AI capex surges while payrolls drop... The "Efficiency Era" is volatile.
| | Good morning — here's what actually matters today. | The signal is getting louder. Interest on U.S. debt just topped $1 trillion, effectively locking the Fed in a corner. Meanwhile, the labor market is quietly decoupling: AI capex is surging while human payrolls in tech shrink. We are entering the "Efficiency Era" — and it's going to be volatile. |
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| 📉 Gold Holds $4,200 Floor as Interest on US Debt Tops $1 Trillion | | Gold futures held firm at $4,245.70 this week, establishing a new floor despite rising yields. The driver isn't just retail fear; global central banks purchased 220 tonnes in Q3 alone, accelerating their diversification away from the dollar. With the U.S. Treasury now paying over $1 trillion annually in gross interest (consuming 15% of all federal spending), the "risk-free" status of government debt is mathematically eroding. |
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| | 🤖 50,000 Jobs Cut in 2025 as Corporate AI Spend Hits $405 Billion | | The shift from "experimentation" to active replacement has begun. U.S. companies cited AI as the direct reason for nearly 50,000 job cuts in 2025, with a massive spike of 31,000 in October alone. While payrolls shrink, capital expenditure is exploding: Big Tech AI spending is projected to exceed $405 billion this year (+62% YoY). Corporations are actively liquidating human overhead to fund the digital infrastructure of the next decade. |
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| | 💵 Trump Bans CBDC as Dollar Index Slips Below 99.00 | | President Trump has issued Executive Order 14178, explicitly prohibiting the Federal Reserve from issuing a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) to protect financial privacy. However, the dollar's external strength is waning. The DXY (Dollar Index) retreated below 99.00 this week as BRICS nations advanced a local currency payment system to bypass SWIFT. The administration has secured privacy at home, but global reliance on the greenback continues to fracture. |
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| | | | 🧭 What This Means | Investors: The "60/40" portfolio is dead. Capital is fleeing to hard assets (Gold) to escape debt debasement and efficiency plays (AI infrastructure) to capture margin growth. Households: The banning of a CBDC protects your privacy, but the weakening DXY means import costs (electronics, fuel, goods) will likely remain volatile in Q1. The Workforce: White-collar stability is evaporating. If a role can be digitized, it is being converted into capex.
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| | 🔍 Insight | The government is prioritizing privacy (No CBDC) but losing value (DXY drop), while corporations are protecting margins by cutting people. The individual is being squeezed from both sides — making self-custody of assets and equity ownership the only true shields left. |
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| | POLL — Which of today's 3 signals do you think is the biggest threat? | |
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