Metals markets have been white-hot this year... My colleague Vic Lederman just discussed gold yesterday. The metal is up more than 60% so far this year. And the price of silver has more than doubled in 2025.
But for the "steady Eddie" of metals, look to copper...
Copper prices are up more than 30% this year. That gain obviously isn't as large as those of gold and silver. But there's a big difference to keep in mind about copper...
Gold and silver prices swing with investor sentiment. They surge when fear is high. And they fall when confidence returns. That can make their demand unpredictable.
But copper is different...
It powers the electrical grid. It's in every building's plumbing and wiring. And it's essential for electric vehicles ("EVs"), data centers, and renewable-energy infrastructure.
And all that valuable copper continues to attract some very unwanted attention...
Telecommunication networks have been especially hard hit.
According to the Internet & Television Association ("NCTA"), there were 9,770 incidents of theft or sabotage on communications networks in the first half of this year.
That was nearly double the number of incidents reported in the previous six months. The copper-related thefts disrupted service for more than 8 million people.
In Los Angeles, AT&T (T) has had enough. The company appointed a former line engineer named Rahdeese Alcutt as its full-time copper "cop."
And Alcutt has become a popular guy. Local gang members, tired of their spotty Internet service, have even sent him tips.
AT&T estimates that nationwide, copper thefts have cost the company $76 million in the first 10 months of this year.
But copper theft isn't the real problem. It's just a symptom of a much bigger crisis...
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Copper Demand Is Soaring... But Supply Isn't Keeping Up
The world runs on copper. And we're running out.
The International Copper Study Group estimates that there was a 94,000-ton surplus in supply versus demand for copper in the first nine months of this year.
That's a razor-thin margin of just 0.4%. And it's about to vanish.
Natural resources research firm Wood Mackenzie expects that by 2035, the world will consume about 43 million metric tons per year.
That's a 24% increase over what we produce today.
A big part of the increase is renewable energy...
In a recent report, Wood Mackenzie projects that copper demand from renewable energy will jump from 1.7 million metric tons today to 4.3 million by 2035. That's a 10% annual growth rate.
Meanwhile, India and Southeast Asia are expected to add 3.3 million metric tons of annual copper demand by 2035. That's an 8% annual growth rate.
But that's just the base-case scenario...
If their economies grow at even half of China's development path, Wood Mackenzie thinks India and Southeast Asia could add another 5.4 million metric tons to demand.
And consider defense...
The war in Ukraine and rising global tensions have spurred Europe to increase its defense spending. Wood Mackenzie thinks this will add roughly 25,000 to 40,000 metric tons of direct demand annually by 2035.
The real impact comes from supporting infrastructure. Think hardened power grids, secure communications, and military facilities.
And there's a huge wild card in demand for copper in AI data centers...
Big AI campuses typically consume between 50 and 150 megawatts of power. Each megawatt needs roughly 27 to 33 metric tons of copper.
So a single 100-megawatt site can easily consume several thousand metric tons of the metal. And that's before you factor in the grid upgrades needed to power the site.
Copper giant BHP (BHP) found that one 80-megawatt facility used over 2,000 metric tons of copper.
Copper represents less than 1% of data-center costs. So developers will pay whatever it takes.
In its report, Wood Mackenzie warned that any sudden boom in AI campus construction could send copper prices surging by at least 15%.
So where will all this new copper come from? That's the problem...
Copper mines take about 25 years to develop. And ore grades, which measure how much usable copper you extract from rock, have declined by 40% since 1991.
That means we're digging up more earth to get less copper. And there's no way to rapidly increase new supply to meet surging demand.
Making matters worse, existing production is becoming less reliable...
Mining companies usually expect about 5% of production to be lost each year due to disruptions like strikes, equipment breakdowns, and permitting delays.
Wood Mackenzie expects that rate to climb to 6%. It says that extra 1% would remove 250,000 to 300,000 metric tons annually from the market.
That's roughly 3 times the entire surplus in the first nine months of this year.
More Upside Ahead for Copper and Precious Metals
In my essay last year, I recommended keeping an eye on the United States Copper Index Fund (CPER). Unlike other copper-themed exchange-traded funds ("ETFs"), CPER's focus is purely on the price of copper.
Since then, the fund is up about 32%. At one point, it was up 44%.
Looking ahead, this fund is still primed to benefit amid soaring demand for copper.
Looking out more broadly in the metals and mining space, we can track this corner of the market with the SPDR S&P Metals and Mining Fund (XME).
The Power Gauge currently gives XME a "very bullish" rating. And out of 32 individual holdings with ratings, 19 of them are "bullish" or better.
Put simply, our system sees upside in metals and mining stocks right now.
As I said, gold and silver tend to swing with investor sentiment. But copper's surge is backed by something far more fundamental.
When the world runs on a metal and supply can't keep up with demand, prices have only one direction to go.
This isn't speculation... It's the laws of supply and demand playing out in real time.
Good investing,
Joe Austin
Market View
Major Indexes and Notable Sectors
# Hld: Bullish Neutral Bearish
Dow 30
-0.39%
9
13
8
S&P 500
-0.3%
116
222
160
Nasdaq
-0.19%
25
45
30
Small Caps
+0.04%
614
940
353
Bonds
-0.33%
— According to the Chaikin Power Bar, Small Cap stocks remain somewhat more Bullish than Large Cap stocks. Major indexes are mixed.
* * * *
Sector Tracker
Sector movement over the last 5 days
Information Technology
+3.11%
Industrials
+1.95%
Communication
+1.23%
Financial
+1.12%
Consumer Discretionary
-0.26%
Energy
-0.53%
Real Estate
-0.85%
Consumer Staples
-1.87%
Materials
-2.49%
Health Care
-2.49%
Utilities
-3.48%
* * * *
Industry Focus
Insurance Services
10
32
11
Over the past 6 months, the Insurance subsector (KIE) has underperformed the S&P 500 by -14.61%. Its Power Bar ratio, which measures future potential, is Weak, with more Bearish than Bullish stocks. It is currently ranked #17 of 21 subsectors and has moved down 6 slots over the past week.
Indicative Stocks
AJG
Arthur J. Gallagher
AON
Aon plc
BRO
Brown & Brown, Inc.
* * * *
Top Movers
Gainers
PSKY
+8.98%
WBD
+4.41%
MU
+4.09%
HII
+3.71%
HOOD
+3.4%
Losers
APD
-9.45%
DG
-6.12%
INCY
-5.68%
ERIE
-5.28%
COO
-4.14%
* * * *
Earnings Report
Earnings Surprises
TOL Toll Brothers, Inc.
Q4
$4.58
Missed by $-0.30
* * * *
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