October 24, 2024
This Indicator Is About to Light Up
Dear Subscriber,
Editor’s note: In case you haven’t heard yet, a rare “Golden Window” is opening soon. It only happens once every 1,460 days.
To make sure you don’t miss out this time, we have a special event planned on Tuesday, Oct. 29 at 2 p.m. Eastern. You can grab your seat here. But come right back.
Below is an article from Dr. Bruce Ng, a literal rocket scientist and one of our insiders into how to mathematically make money in the crypto space. You’ll want to read that before your event … and long before the next “Golden Window” opens again in about another four years.
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| By Bruce Ng |
No one can know for certain when Bitcoin will finally begin its next bull market rally.
But my colleague Juan Villaverde’s proprietary Crypto Timing Model has successfully indicated key cycle lows and highs through several bull/bear cycles. That includes the 2023 long-term low that kicked off this current bull market!
If you are new to this space or even if you’re not … but are still doing it on your own, there’s another indicator you should know about. Because you can track this one on your own. And it works on almost any asset.
It was spot-on back in April when Bitcoin started to correct. And I believe it will strike true again to tell us when we can expect BTC to start rallying for real.
It’s called a spot cumulative volume delta, or CVD.
That’s a mouthful of technical jargon in such a small acronym. So let me break it down for you …
- Spot means we are dealing with only spot — or real-time — trading volume.
- Delta refers to the buy volume minus sell volume for a particular candle period. Candle period refers to Japanese candlestick charts. It’s just the length of time selected for a particular chart. For example, one hour, one day, etc.
- Cumulative means the delta for each successive candle is added from left to right, starting at zero for the leftmost candle of the chart. This means the CVD depends on where you start viewing the chart from the left.
We could dedicate articles to each metric.
But we like to keep things simple so that you can start seeing them in action right away.
So, said simply, a spot CVD is a measure of how much stronger buying pressure is over selling pressure over a period of time for a particular asset.
- If a spot CVD is going down, sell pressure is stronger on that asset.
- If a spot CVD is going up, then buy pressure is stronger.
And if it is moving sideways, that means the asset is in a distribution or reclamation phase.
So, now that you understand the basics of how to read a spot CVD, let’s look at it in action for Bitcoin below:
BTC (candles). Spot CVD (
orange line).
Source: velodata.
Click here to see full-sized image.
Above is the price action for Bitcoin for 2024, with each candle — vertical red or green lines — marking a single day.
Pay attention to the solid orange line weaving its way through the daily candles. That’s the CVD. You’ll notice that there are three distinct phases in the chart above:
- Up: During the BTC rally from February to the end of April, the spot CVD was climbing up. Remember, that means the buy pressure was on the rise, as well. Then, BTC hit its all-time high of $73,000 in March.
- Down: Around April 11, the spot CVD started to slope downward. This corresponded to the choppy, gradual downward price action that lasted all the way through to the start of September.
- Accumulation: Something qualitatively changed in early September. The brakes were hit on spot CVD selling, which caused the slope to tilt sideways. This accumulation phase also lines up with the Sept. 13 interest rate cut announcement.
Since the end of April, we have had many mini rallies and choppy price action. And each one caused the talking heads to hail the return of the bull rally.
But no such rally occurred.
Looking closer, you can see that the spot CVD trend was going lower the entire time.
So, none of these wicks higher ever had any legs underneath them.
This is why the current accumulation phase is so important. While there isn’t a clear push for buyers, this suggests that selling pressure has finally bottomed.
In other words … we’re close to seeing the selling pressure end and the buying pressure begin again.
What we need to see next is that the spot CVD line begins to creep upward. When that happens, it’s time to back up the truck to load up on Bitcoin.
So, keep a sharp eye on the spot CVD for your favorite assets over the coming weeks. It may just reveal a shift in sentiment you’ll want to get ahead of.
Best,
Dr. Bruce Ng
P.S. This indicator is just one of many we use to identify huge gains. But the main tool is Juan Villaverde’s Crypto Timing Model.
It is signaling that in less than two weeks, a “Golden Window” is about to open. And it could see gains of 19x … 23x … even 93x. Get your seat here.
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