Huckabee's Daily Bible Verse What time I am afraid, I will trust in thee.
~ Psalms 56:3 KJV |
The Bible Says … Vote!
Prosperity Insider Nation,
Studies have found that over 40 million Evangelical Christians don’t vote, even in presidential elections.
I’ve tried hard this year to convince Christians to vote, and I hope that elevated early voting for Republicans is an indicator that they are.
But these shocking statements by Kamala Harris show why it needs to be even higher.
If all Christians voted for their principles, they could determine every election in America and end the left’s weaponization of government against religious freedom for good.
You can see my take on this below. After you watch it, I hope you’ll share it with any fellow Christians who aren’t planning to vote.
And you should send an article Tyler O’Neill of The Daily Signal wrote, too.
Tyler is an Evangelical Christian, as well, and he offers three citations from the Bible about why it’s important for Christians to vote.
While it’s vital that you show up to the polls next month, there’s something else you can do for you and your family now.
I met with Charles Mizrahi last week in Arkansas and he shared an idea about “God’s Portfolio.” And the best way to invest … even if you had all the powers of God. See below…
Gov. Mike Huckabee
Director, Prosperity Research
Even God Would Get Fired
as an Active Investor
By Charles Mizrahi
Founder, Alpha Investor
Ben Graham, Warren Buffett’s mentor, teacher and friend, said, “The investor's chief problem, and even his worst enemy, is likely to be himself.”
To strengthen Graham’s point, I browsed my friend Dr. Wes Gray’s website, Alpha Architect, and read his research papers.
Wes used to be an academic and taught finance. Now he’s a very successful money manager.
His research is thorough and written so that non-academics, like myself, can understand it.
Wes wrote this paper a few years ago titled "Even God Would Get Fired as an Active Investor."
The research examines how even a perfect investor with clairvoyant knowledge of future stock performance — would still struggle in the stock market.
And that’s because of the stock market’s volatility and sitting through down periods.
The research delves into the theoretical performance of a stock investor who possesses perfect foresight and knows precisely how a stock will perform in the future.
It argues that even with complete knowledge of future stock performance, consistently outperforming the market and avoiding financial losses is exceedingly difficult.
In essence, having perfect foresight does not ensure smooth and trouble-free investing.
The research simulates what would happen if an investor, who he refers to as "God," could perfectly predict the top-performing stocks for the next five years.
The study analyzes data from the 500 largest firms on the NYSE, Nasdaq and AMEX between 1927 and 2016, using a five-year holding period.
Keep in mind that this hypothetical portfolio was constructed with perfect knowledge of the next five years' top-performing stocks.
The results, as you would expect, were amazing.
The God portfolio returned a remarkable 29% annualized return vs. 10% for the S&P 500 — outperforming the market by 3X.
Now, here’s where things get interesting … although "God's portfolio" outperformed the S&P 500 in the long run, its short-term performance was often much worse.
In fact, sometimes, it was outright terrible.
The "God portfolio" experienced gut-wrenching drawdowns, including a 76% drop during the Great Depression as well as 10 drawdowns greater than 20%.
Besides the Great Depression, the next two worst drawdowns happened over the past 20 or so years. During the bursting of the dotcom bubble and the Great Financial Crisis of 2008 … both had drawdowns of 40%.
This highlights the challenge of consistently beating the market … even with perfect knowledge. It also demonstrates something I’ve said time and again.
To be a stock investor, you need to think long-term. As Wes writes: "Clearly, even a 'perfect' long portfolio can bring a long-only investor a ton of pain."
The paper goes even further and states that if God were a money manager, he would get fired.
And that’s because even with perfect foresight, the drawdowns and volatility would be so severe — that a real-world investor would likely lose their job.
Managing other people's money, especially during sharp downturns, brings a lot of pressure.
I know this from experience, having managed money for nearly 30 years. It's not easy.
During tough times, investors panic and push money managers not to lose their money. After just a few bad quarters, many investors pull their accounts because they can’t handle the short-term losses, even if it means missing out on long-term gains.
Real Talk: Stock investing requires a long-term time horizon.
You need patience and a long-term outlook to be a successful stock investor. There are no shortcuts. Short-term fluctuations in performance are as inevitable as death and taxes … even with perfect knowledge.
To be a successful stock investor and make big money, you need to have patience.
Warren Buffett said it best: “No matter how great the talent or efforts, some things just take time. You can't produce a baby in one month by getting nine women pregnant.”
So here’s the takeaway…
Even the best stock-picking strategy can go through tough short-term losses. The ups and downs in even the strongest portfolios show why it’s important to stay patient and think long-term.
Wes points out that markets are very unpredictable in the short term, and focusing on short-term results can lead to bad decisions.
Instead, focus on the long-term and don’t let Mr. Market’s short-term ups and downs influence your decisions.
As the saying goes, that is attributed to economist John Maynard Keynes, "The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent."
Sure … consistent outperformance is exceptionally challenging, even with perfect foresight.
If you want consistent returns, buy a treasury bill. Volatility is the price we pay for above-average returns. It’s that simple.
The key to achieving success in the stock market is to stay the course — even if you have the powers of "God" as an investor.
Regards,
Charles Mizrahi
Founder, Alpha Investor
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