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Skousen CAFE: Fifty Years on Wall Street: Which Has Outperformed, Stocks or Gold?

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Fifty Years on Wall Street: Which Has Outperformed, Stocks or Gold?

By Mark Skousen
Editor, Forecasts & Strategies

10/24/2024

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"I was no longer betting blindly, but earning my successes by hard study and clear thinking. My great discovery was that a man must study general conditions, to size them so as to be able to anticipate probabilities." -- Jesse Livermore ("Maxims of Wall Street," p. 90)

At the Orlando MoneyShow last week, it dawned on me that I started in the investment business in October, 1974, as the managing editor of "The Inflation Survival Letter," published by Bob Kephart and Human Events. It's been an incredible run ever since.

After an eight-year apprenticeship at Kephart Communications, I decided to strike out on my own in 1980 and began writing Forecasts & Strategies.

A Short Summary of My Career

During the past 50 years, I have written hundreds of articles and special reports without missing a deadline; traveled to 50 states and 88 countries; lived offshore in the Bahamas and London; worked in Florida, New York and California; and spoken at hundreds of investment conferences (going from the "blond-haired kid" to "senior statesman"). I also taught economics and finance at four institutions of higher education, including Columbia Business School and Chapman University; served as a columnist for ForbesHuman EventsReason magazine and Investment U; wrote more than 25 books; appeared on numerous television and radio programs, including C-SPAN Book TV, Kudlow & Co. and Rick Santelli's "Exchange" on CNBC; met with presidents, Fed chairmen and other political leaders; and interviewed top investment gurus, including Warren BuffettJack BogleKevin O'Leary and Charles Schwab. Plus, I ran a successful mail-order business; spoke at hundreds of MoneyShows and other seminars; sponsored my own conferences, especially the highly successful FreedomFest; served as president of the oldest free-market think tank, the Foundation for Economic Education (FEE); taught at Columbia Business School and Columbia University; and had a business school named after me at Grantham University. In addition, I received the inaugural Triple Crown in Economics from Steve Forbes and was named "America's #1 Economist" by Kim Githler, president of the MoneyShow. And most recently, I was made Presidential Fellow and the Doti-Spogli Chair of Free Enterprise at Chapman University.

Recently, some friends have suggested I should be awarded the Nobel prize for my development of gross output (GO) as the missing piece of the macroeconomic puzzle: 10-15-24: Who Should Win This Week's Nobel Prize for Economics? - Navellier.

At the same time, my wife and I have raised five children and enjoy spending time with our eight grandchildren. We have developed friendships that have lasted a lifetime.

I couldn't have achieved any of these successes without the help and support of Jo Ann, my wife, partner, advisor, co-author and editor. Nor could I have done it without the support of my publishers and staff of my newsletter and trading services. I want to especially thank Roger Michalski, Paul Dykewicz and Ned Piplovic for their long years of service at Eagle.


Mark Skousen presents a Double Eagle Gold Coin to Publisher Roger Michalski representing 20 years of devoted service at Eagle Publishing.

Since entering the financial arena in the 1970s, I've been a firsthand witness to everything imaginable: bull and bear markets; high and low interest rates; easy and tight money; booms and busts and the creation of revolutionary new products and services, including no-load funds, discount brokers, online trading and the internet. I've invested in stocks, bonds, options, futures, tax shelters, offshore bank accounts, gold, silver, commodities, art and even cattle. I've made money and I've lost money -- fortunately, I've made a lot more than I've lost.

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My Most Important Lesson

Over those five decades, I learned a great many lessons about financial life. I listed seven of them back in 2020: Seven Golden Lessons Learned on Wall Street: An Editor's Perspective After 40 Years - Mark Skousen.

If I could pick one lesson above all else, what would it be? Never give up on America! The American Dream and American Exceptionalism are still alive.

Even as we have gone through troubled times, I have never lost faith in American ingenuity and achieving the impossible. Despite every effort by Republicans and Democrats to overregulate and overtax us, despite wars and rumors of wars, recessions, crises and natural disasters, Americans have risen to the challenge.

Today, we enjoy a high standard of living and a stock market that is setting records.

'Bull Markets Climb a Wall of Worry'

I'm not saying that "It's Getting Better All the Time," the title of a recent book. I'm not a Pollyanna.

Our country faces serious problems, including crime, inflation, skyrocketing debt, poverty, inequality, environmental degradation, mass shootings, mental illness and drug addition, discrimination, global warming and cultural decline.

The Economic Freedom Index has shown a gradual decline in the United States, but it is in our power to bring back the glory days of liberty.

All I can say is we can do better; we are problem solvers.

Over this half century, I have debated and argued with the prophets of doom who have written bestsellers -- Howard Ruff, Harry Browne, Doug Casey, Peter Schiff, and Wayne Allyn Root come to mind -- but in the end the optimists seem to triumph. Things are never as bad as they seem.

Stocks vs. Gold

I started my career in the hard-money movement when stocks, bonds and traditional investments did poorly while gold, silver, Swiss francs, real estate and alternative investments were all the rage. My first investment was a silver coin, not a stock certificate. But over the years, I have learned that there are many ways to climb a mountain.

The following chart compares the performance of the U.S. stock market to gold, a way to compare the bulls and the bears, the optimists and the pessimists. Here are the results:



As you can see, it appears that investing in profitable businesses did far better in the long run compared to a defensive position in gold, which doesn't earn dividends or interest. Over the past 50 years, stocks averaged an annual return of 13.3%, while gold returned an average annual return of 6.9%. That's why I've always recommended investing mostly in the future of America through publicly traded companies and only a small defensive posture in gold (5-10%).

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What About the 21st Century? Which Has Performed Better, Stocks or Gold?

Have stocks continued to outperform gold recently? I compared the S&P 500 Index to the price of gold since 2000. The results were surprising. See this chart:



Suddenly we see a dramatic change. In the 21st century, gold has beat out stocks!

The average compounded return for gold from 2000-2024 is 10.0%, while the S&P 500 Index has returned only 8% a year, including dividends.

Will it continue? While we wait, I recommend investing in both stocks and gold.

Diversification is the key, especially once you have achieved success in your business or you've already made it big in the stock market. "To make it, concentrate, to keep it, diversify." (Maxims, p. 158)

A Financial Quote for the Day

Speaking of the Maxims, at the MoneyShow, I met up with one of our new editors at Eagle, Hugh Grossman, who writes the popular "Day Trade Spy" trading service.

He wrote our publisher the following: "I must say, I have a bone to pick with Mark. I bought his book, 'The Maxims of Wall Street,' and it kept me glued to it until about 2:30 this morning when I could no longer stay awake… it is just that compelling! Most other trading books are a sure cure for insomnia… not Maxims! Well done, Mark! Getting that book was worth every cent of the trip for me." Thank you, Hugh.

With the World Series starting, he suggested this quote for the day: "The odd home run creates short-term riches but it's the singles and doubles that create long-term wealth!" Well said! That's what we do at Forecasts & Strategies.

Buy This Special 50th Anniversary 'Collecters' Edition' of the 'Maxims of Wall Street!'

In honor of my 50th anniversary working on Wall Street, I'm offering a special edition of "The Maxims of Wall Street" to my subscribers. It is dated Oct. 19 in memory of my 77th birthday and Black Monday, October 19, 1987. A collector's edition!



To order your specially autographed Collectors' Edition, go to www.skousenbooks.com. The price is $21 postpaid within the United States. Limited to one copy per person while supply lasts.

Good Investing, AEIOU,

Mark Skousen

Mark Skousen
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You Blew It!

Donald Trump Makes It Back on the Forbes 400 

By Mark Skousen
Editor, Forecasts & Strategies

"No American has used politics to create as much personal wealth as Donald J. Trump" -- Forbes

Donald Trump was dropped from the Forbes 400 Richest List of Americans back in 2022 but now has returned with an estimated fortune of $4.3 billion.



I've collected all the Forbes 400 issues since its inception in 1982. I even have one with Trump's signature on the cover of the 2015 issue (the year he spoke at FreedomFest in Vegas to a standing-room-only crowd). I've met 19 of the Forbes Richest in person, including Warren Buffett, Elon Musk, Bill Gates, Charles Koch and Mark Cuban.

There are many lessons to learn studying the lives of the Forbes 400. The American dream is alive and well... Dozens have gone from rags to riches... And a few have witnessed the agony of defeat. I daresay hardly any of the original 400, published in 1982, are still on the list, either because they have died, lost money or given it away. There are no Rockefellers or Kennedys on the list. Creative destruction is common on the Forbes 400, not unlike the best performing mutual funds on Wall Street.

It took only $75 million net worth to make the list back then, but today you need $3.3 billion. Inflation has made a big difference.

Most "self-made" billionaires made it in business as entrepreneurs. Few made it strictly as investors. Those billionaires in finance made it largely by offering services as brokerage firms, money managers or private equity -- using other people's money to leverage their success. Examples include Charles Schwab, Ken Fisher and Brian Armstrong (founder of Coinbase).

Trump and his hotel and resort business were in deep trouble after the 2020 election and he was dropped from the list. But he made it back this year after profiting from his new social media business, Truth Social.

I saw a new book recently entitled "Lucky Loser: How Donald Trump Squandered His Father's Fortune and Created the Illusion of Success," for which the two authors won the Pulitzer Prize. They may have egg on their face come this November.



Two of my favorite Forbes 400 Richest people are Richard and Liz Uihlein, founders of the shipping supply company ULINE. They have 7,000 employees based in Wisconsin (where I'll be this Nov. 14 at the Wisconsin Forum) and are constantly expanding by serving their customers better than any company I know. Every couple of months I order bubble mailers from them to fulfill my book orders. A real person always answers their 800-number, and I'm finished ordering and paying in less than a minute. They are the most efficient company I've ever worked with. The Uihleins are also patriots who support good causes. They represent the best of American manufacturing.

About Mark Skousen, Ph.D.:


Mark SkousenMark Skousen is an investment advisor, professional economist, university professor, author of more than 20 books, and founder of the annual FreedomFest conference. For the past 40+ years, Dr. Skousen has been investment director of the award-winning newsletter, Forecasts & Strategies. He also serves as investment director of four trading services: TNT Trader, Five Star Trader, Low Priced-Stock Trader, and Fast Money Alert.
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