July 12, 2024
A 107.1% Gain from Bitcoin's Sell-Off
Dear Subscriber,
 |
| By Juan Villaverde |
We saw that recent Bitcoin sell-off coming from a mile away.
Or, at least, a month away.
Bitcoin (BTC, “A”) was happily sitting above $65,000 back on June 18. Just below its all-time highs.
That’s when the Crypto Timing Model signaled that the market might soften going into July.
In fact, it looked like Bitcoin could possibly even revisit its most recent 80-day-cycle low.
So, I alerted my Weiss Crypto Portfolio Members to cash out of all their medium-term trading positions. Those who acted on my instructions could have harvested medium-term gains of 107.1% in Bitcoin, among others.
And just in time!
Last week, Bitcoin broke below the May 1 low of $58,000. It nosedived to around $53,000 and then bounced back with the vigor of a spring-loaded toy.
This low from last Friday fits the 80-day-cycle low pattern perfectly …
It was marked by a wave of panic-selling that felt eerily similar to the FTX debacle in November 2022.
(A debacle that made headlines again this week. This time with news that two execs from this failed crypto exchange who pleaded guilty are set to be sentenced.)
The similarities between these two Bitcoin bottoms are uncanny.
In both scenarios, Bitcoin fell through key support levels on hefty trading volume. Then it rebounded in the days that followed.
Back in November 2022, Bitcoin miners were scared stiff of further drops. So, they were quick to offload their stash.
The same thing just happened, driven by different triggers but still leading to similar miner capitulation — a classic sign of a medium-term low in the crypto markets.
And let's not forget the leveraged traders.
They were forced to sell as prices tumbled, purging leverage from the market, another textbook indicator of an 80-day-cycle low.
As usual, there's a lack of genuinely negative catalysts beyond the short-term drama.
In fall 2022, the crypto market crash following the FTX collapse happened amid an improving macroeconomic landscape. Most asset classes bottomed out in October and robustly bounced back afterward.
Fast-forward to now, and market players are losing their heads because of headlines about the German government selling Bitcoin and Mt. Gox repaying its creditors.
I’ve brushed these off as mere distractions at best … and short-term triggers for a brief dip at worst.
Context is king, but the real proof is in the market's reaction.
This week, Bitcoin has been rallying since hitting an intraday low of $53,500 last Friday. It climbed back up as high as $60,000 before pulling back to $57,000 and change.
Key cycle bottoms are usually messy and volatile. They’re marked by choppy price action and increased intraday swings.
That’s exactly how things are playing out right now.
For instance, last Monday, Bitcoin swung wildly within a single session. It started at $56,000, dipped to $54,000, rallied to $58,000, dropped again to $55,000 and ended the day around $56,500.
This kind of roller-coaster price action is par for the course around key cycle lows. And this time was no different.
Stay sharp and ready to pounce on these moves. The current volatility presents an opportunity for those who grasp the cyclical nature of crypto assets. Let's navigate these turbulent waters with a clear strategy and a steady hand.
Best,
Juan Villaverde
P.S. My Timing Model has nailed every rally and correction in the stock market since 2012. Now, it’s showing me a new AI profit window is opening. Click here to find out the tiny AI projects I’m recommending for 2024. I’ll give you a hint: You won’t find these promising new projects on the stock market.
Tidak ada komentar:
Posting Komentar