Stocks End Mostly Higher, All Eyes On Today's CPI Inflation Data, And FOMC Minutes

Market Moves You Need to See  ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌  ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌  ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ 

Stocks End Mostly Higher, All Eyes On Today's CPI Inflation Data, And FOMC Minutes

	Profit from the Pros By Kevin Matras Executive Vice President
	Stocks End Mostly Higher, All Eyes On Today's CPI Inflation Data, And FOMC Minutes Stocks closed mostly higher yesterday after trading lower for most of the day. A late day rally brought all of the indexes off their worst levels, and turned most of them higher by the close. All eyes will be on this morning's Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report. Last month's CPI showed headline inflation ticking up to 3.2% y/y vs. the previous month's 3.1%. But the core rate (ex-food & energy), was down at 3.8% from 3.9%. This morning's estimates are calling for the headline number to be up at 3.5% y/y vs. last month's 3.2%. And the core rate to tick lower once again at 3.7% vs. last month's 3.8%. With energy prices back on the rise, the headline number is expected to reflect that. But since energy and food are excluded from the core rate, another decline in inflation is expected. We're hearing lots of people weighing in on inflation and interest rate cuts lately. Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, maintains he still sees three rate cuts this year (presumably by 25 basis points each). Chief Economist at Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius, believes as Mr. Powell does, that three rate cuts is still the plan, adding he would be "very surprised" if we got none this year. But others potentially see it differently. Such as Minneapolis Fed President, Neel Kashkari, when he said it was possible we could see no rate cuts this year if inflation continues "moving sideways." At the moment, Fed Funds traders are placing a 56.2% probability of a quarter point rate cut in June. That's up from the previous day's 51.3%. But the odds are near zero (2.7%) of a rate cut at the next FOMC announcement on May 1. In the meantime, Mr. Powell insists the Fed will be data dependent. And that's why all eyes will be on this morning's CPI report. But after today's report, the market will quickly turn its attention to tomorrow's Produce Price Index (PPI) inflation report. In addition to today's CPI report, we'll also get MBA Mortgage Applications, and Wholesale Inventories. We'll also hear from Fed officials Michelle Bowman (Board of Governors member of the Federal Reserve), and Austan Goolsbee (President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago), at different speaking engagements today. As if that weren't enough, we'll also get the FOMC Minutes from March's Fed meeting. And we'll likely get a deeper look into what was said and how other policymakers are viewing the current situation and future rate cuts. The CPI report comes out at 8:30 AM ET. The FOMC Minutes come out at 2:00 PM ET. Should be a busy day. See you tomorrow, Kevin Matras Executive Vice President, Zacks Investment Research
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