 What the Looming Political Chaos Means for U.S. EnergyIt was the best of times and it was the worst of times for American energy. This contradiction springs to mind whenever a presidential election year comes around, for nowhere else will you witness such a batshit dichotomy of energy policies feverishly pitched to the public by politicians that care more for your vote than your energy security. And make no mistake, dear reader, this year is going to be no different than any other in recent memory. In fact, we'll all receive a healthy dose of déjà vu in 2024. I know, I know… we've only seen two primaries for the GOP so far, both of which have given Donald Trump a commanding lead in the delegate count. Within the next eight weeks, we'll have another 14 states throw their weight behind a candidate to go up against Biden… and that's assuming the current president is up for the task again. Yet there will be some surprising differences. No matter what your personal politics are, which side of the political aisle you prefer, or how visceral your hatred is for the other side, the good news — if you were hoping for some — is that one winner will emerge no matter who resides at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue after this chaotic election cycle. And you can even start betting on them today… but we'll get to that in a second. The "Nerve Center" of the $15.7 Trillion AI Revolution See this massive compound? It could easily be the most valuable piece of real estate in the world right now… But it's NOT a military base or a secret government lab. It's the epicenter of the blossoming $15.7 trillion AI revolution… And this firm is legally mandated by the government to share a whopping 90% of its colossal profits with individuals like you and me. Discover the company behind this secret facility that could hand you as much as $48,800 annually.
America First or America LastTrump vs. Biden, the unfortunate yin-and-yang duality of today's American political spectrum, is the inevitable rematch that nobody wants to go through again. Like watching a car accident in slow motion, none of us will be able to peel our eyes away from the spectacle. Right now the two are evenly matched, according to a recent Gallup poll. However, this fight hasn't even started yet. But we're not here to pick apart every major issue on Americans' minds; we'll see enough political fisticuffs over hot topics like immigration elsewhere. I'd rather focus our attention today on what will most likely get overshadowed by those major crises: energy. When it comes to U.S. energy policy, the blunders are all being made by our current commander-in-chief. Perhaps the biggest came when President Biden announced this past weekend that his administration was temporarily pausing pending decisions on exports of LNG. Granted, whether or not he's simply shoring up his far left-side support early on in the primary season may be up for debate. It's hard to even remotely grasp how this helps us reach any of our climate targets. Stop and really think this one through with me… Not only did the United States hit a new all-time record for dry natural gas production in December 2023, but one of the largest impacts from our swelling natural gas output over the past decade has been the utter decimation of the coal industry. It wasn't wind and solar that caused coal's collapse; it was cheap, abundant natural gas. From an export standpoint, we went from importing LNG in the early 2000s to becoming the world's largest LNG exporter within the last seven years! Keep in mind that every drop of LNG sent abroad means those countries don't have to rely on dirtier fuels, along with the fact that it was natural gas that provided us with the vast majority of fuel to stay warm during the recent polar vortex cold snap. Then again, if this really is simply an exercise in appeasing groups like the Sierra Club over the short term, it's a dangerous game to play with a long-term energy crisis at stake. There's $322 Billion Worth of Lithium in Northwest Alberta... For more than 40 years, an oil company has been working a 671-square-mile chunk of northwestern Alberta, producing its lifeblood using brine that's kept in hundreds of massive storage ponds. These storage ponds have long been known to contain a massive lithium resource, totaling an estimated 4.3 million tons. Just recently a tiny Vancouver-based technology company, founded and headed by petrochemical industry veterans, figured out a way to extract the lithium from this brine, very quickly and very efficiently. So efficiently, in fact, that the company can filter this oil field brine, returning it to the pond after processing, with a better than 95% capture rate. Production of salable lithium will cost between $3,000 and $4,000 per ton, while market rates price lithium at $70,000 per ton. They know where the lithium is, they know how to extract it, and, as of now, they have an agreement in place to work this giant lithium-rich property. Commercial production is now projected to be in place by the middle of 2024, with buyers already lining up.
Now ask yourself where this political game goes during the summer, when oil demand is back in full force and gas prices are edging higher? What happens if we see another round of sales from the strategic petroleum reserve to win a little favor from cheaper prices at the pump? "Impossible," you say. "Nobody would be stupid enough to drain it further after last year's massive withdrawals… right?" I wouldn't be surprised in the least if that were to happen. The problem is that crude oil prices are now buoyed by geopolitical risk — a premium that will continue climbing as more disturbing events take place. If you're thinking things can't get much worse than they already are, let me present to you the British oil tanker carrying Russian petroleum products that was struck by Houthi missiles recently:
I've said it before, but things will get worse before they get better. I wouldn't be as perturbed if it weren't for the devastating energy policies here at home. You see, the biggest drawbacks to U.S. oil production is that the drill bits CANNOT stop turning. While it's absolutely true that tapping into our vast tight oil resources has pushed output to record high levels, these wells also come with far steeper decline rates than conventional ones. In a post-COVID world, the only thing that has saved our oil production has been the fact that companies became much more efficient at extracting this crude from underground. Year after year, the number of drilling rigs disappearing from the field grows. Today, there are 150 less active oil and gas rigs running in the U.S. than there were at this point in 2023. The way I see it, we're barreling toward a major output crisis. And here's the silver lining for individual investors like us… It actually doesn't matter who wins next November. If the GOP proves victorious, we'll experience a surge in new drilling that will lift the U.S. oil sector for the next few years. If President Biden comes out ahead, it'll mean that the only thing that'll prevent a production free fall will be new technologies to bolster our drilling efficiency. Either way, a small group of oil stocks are in a win-win situation right now. Let me show you my favorite one. Until next time,
Keith Kohl
P.S. Today's article was originally published by our sister publication Energy and Capital, which is solely dedicated to helping readers profit from the ever-expanding and ever-changing energy sector. If you would like to receive daily free email investment letters from the editors of Energy and Capital, simply click here. Follow the Outsiders |
Kamis, 01 Februari 2024
What the Looming Political Chaos in the U.S Means for Energy
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