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Happy Tuesday everyone! |
Well, after that bounce last week (which I DID predict by the way), I'm getting increasingly bearish ๐ป on the market as we approach the back half of the week. I'm not sure we're there quite yet...but I do think a pullback is coming in a couple of days. |
So why is this, Jeff? |
There are a few reasons. First, September and October are seasonally two of the worst months for stocks. |
Take a look at this chart of historical returns, and you'll see what I mean. |
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We had a pretty decent June this year, and August hasn't been horrible so far, so maybe this won't play out. |
Seasonality isn't a trading set-up. |
However, it's important to keep the yearly cycle in mind as a context for price action. |
The second reason is the "head and shoulders" chart pattern that's forming on SPY. We could be setting up for a big move down into October. |
I'll go into this in more detail in a minute. |
All Alpha Hunter subscribers get much more information about the overall market trends and trading opportunities. |
So why haven't you joined us yet? |
✏️ Numbers I Need: |
Let's look at this bearish pattern forming on the daily chart. |
We'll start with a schematic of the basic "head and shoulders" pattern. |
 | *Source: Samco |
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Look at this for a moment and notice what's happening. |
A left shoulder high that pulls back to the neckline followed by another higher rally (head) that pulls back to the neckline. The chart is completed by a third rally with a lower high that eventually breaks to the downside. |
What do we see on SPY right now? |
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Notice the black neckline I've added to the chart? |
It's impossible to predict whether or not this pattern will actually play out…but this doesn't look promising. |
If we can't get a strong break of that red 50-day SMA line, I may become a short-term bear. |
⚡Most Exciting Action: |
For the Alpha Hunter system, dealing with a bearish market is no problem at all. |
Remember, we can sell options above the stock price if it's falling, and we may well be playing to the short side soon. |
I see more sideways chop into Thursday. |
There's a slew of economic data coming out Thursday and Friday that I think will determine the trajectory of the market. |
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Job reports and inflation data have been moving markets, so how am I playing the market now? |
Keeping my positions small and taking profits early. |
I always have the choice of whether or not to trade, and so do you. I'm not telling you what to do, but personally, I'm being much more conservative right now. |
✅Past Alert Update: |
My MSFT trade from last week illustrates how we can profit selling options ON BOTH SIDES of a range-bound stock. |
Last week, I alerted Alpha Hunter subscribers I was entering an Iron Condor on MSFT. |
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In case you missed the discussion in the live room, an Iron Condor is just a bear call credit spread and bull put credit spread entered at the same time. |
On Aug 23rd, when I sent the alert, MSFT was trading in a tight range between $318.38 and $311.3. |
By selling the call spread -$340/+$345 and the put spread at -$310/+305, I stood to profit as long as MSFT didn't move higher than $340 or lower than $310 before Sept 8th. |
And it did just that. |
While it bounced up and down, it never came close to breaking my short strikes on either side, and the options I sold lost value from time decay. |
I hit my profit target of 45% yesterday when I sent out the closing alert. |
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In less than a week, I pocketed $900 from a stock that did absolutely nothing (*trading is hard, results not guaranteed)! |
That's the power of options selling⚡. |
Couldn't I have sold just the call or put spread? |
Absolutely. However, my analysis suggested sideways consolidation - it was the perfect set-up for an Iron Condor. |
I stood to make a profit on both sides while limiting my risk. |
Since you can't lose on both sides, winning one offsets the risk on the other. |
I promised a discussion of candlesticks - so let's cover one of the most important ones. |
The doji. |
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There are different ways to interpret these candlesticks, so we'll just hit the highlights here. |
When the open and close prices are roughly equal, giving the candle a very small body, it represents indecision in the market. |
In other words, the bulls and bears canceled one another out. |
Gravestone doji - Price opened low, was driven higher by the bulls, then sold back off as the bears stepped in. This is decidedly bearish. Look for potential continuation of a downtrend or reversal of an uptrend. |
Long-legged doji - Compete indecision as the bulls and bears fought a pitched battle ending in stalemate. In flat markets, look for further consolidation. If you see this at the top of an uptrend or the bottom of a downtrend, look for a potential reversal. |
Dragonfly doji - Price opened high, was driven lower by the bears, the climbed again as the bulls took over. This is quite bullish. In an uptrend, look for potential continuation, and in a downtrend, look for a possible reversal. |
PRO TIP: Don't base your trades on these candles alone. Always use other indicators, support/resistance levels, and a confirmation candle. |
Next time, we'll cover the RSI indicator, something all traders need in their arsenal. |
To follow EXACTLY what I'm looking at and see which trades I'm making, join Alpha Hunter today. |
All members get exclusive access to: |
The Alpha Chamber - Live analysis, trading, and chat Detailed Trading Plans - Direct to your inbox every single day Alpha Pulse E-Book - Learn HOW to sell options the right way Every trade I take via instant app alerts.
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And just as a reminder, make sure to join Jason's room TODAY at 1pm EST to hear all about his newest Small Account Journey → join room here! |
To your success, |
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P.S. Please feel free to reach out to Mr. Jeff Brown any time at 800 585-4488 or jbrown@ragingbull.com and he will find the service that is right for you and answer any questions you might have! |
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