Selasa, 11 Juli 2023

Four Charts Reveal a Trillion-Dollar Investment Opportunity

Collective spending by the NATO alliance has gone up in each of the past six years, and 2023 will be the fourth consecutive year in which it tops $1 trillion.
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Four Charts Reveal a Trillion-Dollar Investment Opportunity

European defense spending is always a point of consternation. 

There's a winding and endless debate about who's spending what and which countries are pulling their weight. 

It's a murky debate too because NATO members vary in population, physical size, and economic might.

However, there is one undeniable, immutable fact about Western defense spending…

It's going up. 

Collective spending by the NATO alliance has gone up in each of the past six years, and 2023 will be the fourth consecutive year in which it tops $1 trillion.

NATO Defense Budget

A lot of that momentum can be attributed to the United States, which has raised its defense spending by more than $100 billion in that time, but our partners in the alliance are doing their part as well.

NATO Europe and Canada are set to see an 8.3% increase in defense expenditure this year — the biggest bump in decades and the latest in a streak dating back to 2015.

NATO Europe and Canada

As a result, 11 member states will meet or exceed NATO's defense investment target of 2% of GDP this year. 

That's up from seven in 2022 and just three in 2014.

And that's still just a third of NATO's 31 members, which means there's plenty of room for improvement.

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Several countries are in striking distance, too. 

For example, France is set to spend 1.9% of GDP on defense this year, Montenegro and North Macedonia are at 1.87%, and Bulgaria is at 1.84%.

NATO Spending by Country 2023

This has been a real point of emphasis since Russia first invaded Ukraine in 2014, and Russia's escalation of the conflict over the past year shows the effort is well-justified.

In fact, not only is the spending spree justified but it needs to be accelerated.

Indeed, the war in Ukraine has depleted stores of ammunition and equipment that were already inadequate and left to decay in the decades following the Cold War.

In 1988, European countries spent a total of $343 billion on their militaries, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, which bases the figures on 2021 prices and exchange rates. 

By 2013, that figure had shrunk to just $275 billion. 

Europe Defense Decline

Now these stocks are slated to be replenished and then some.

Huge investments are also being made to modernize, streamline, and standardize weapons systems and ammunition.

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While Ukraine managed to turn the tables on Russia, the war has slumped into a stalemate with no major breakthroughs since last fall.

This could persist for years if Vladimir Putin manages to hold onto power, and, if he's ultimately ousted, a successor could prove to be just as unpredictable and dangerous. 

And that's to say nothing of China, which poses a threat all its own. 

There's no question that the United States has led the way in propping up the European front and repelling Russia, but there could soon come a time when European forces will have to scramble to support the United States in the Pacific.

Indeed, the only certainty moving forward is more uncertainty.

That's why I spend so much time looking at companies in the defense and security sector — because political and societal breakdowns necessitate solutions, and modern ones at that. 

I've even launched a special investing service designed to uncover and profit from the most advanced, cutting-edge military technology available — technology so useful that it's capable of crossing over to the mainstream.

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Fight on,

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Jason Simpkins

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Jason Simpkins is Assistant Managing Editor of the Outsider Club and Investment Director of Wall Street's Proving Ground, a financial advisory focused on security companies and defense contractors. For more on Jason, check out his editor's page. 

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