The number is a bit higher than it was yesterday. We may be at the point where it quarter point hike appears locked in. The real question will be forward guidance. Whether or not rates change tomorrow should not be the main issue. The primary focus will be on what the FOMC will do on June 14. Tomorrow, we get our first clue to that. The CME FedWatch Tool also shows clues. As of this morning they show a 64.8% probability that rates will be at 5-5.25 after the June 14 meeting. If the fed raises rates today, that represents a vote of no change on June 14.
Over 70% of stocks track with the S&P 500 Futures
Major Events:
May 3 ADP Employment
May 3 FOMC Statement and Press Conference
May 5 Employment Reports
May 10 CPI
Key Numbers Opens: Above or Below
4190.00 is the open of the Week
4179.50 is the open
4150.00 was the open of last Week
4127.00 is the open of the Quarter
3895.00 is the open of 2023
What's Hot and Not!
The ES rallied to a new high for the quarter at 4206.25 on the first day of May. This exceeded the April high of 4198.25 but failed to exceed the high of the year 4208.50, set in February. From a read standpoint it's a mixed bag. In front of the FOMC tomorrow it could become meaningful. We could view 4206.25 as a test of 4208.50. If so, it has so far been an unsuccessful test. Pay attention to how the market reacts around numbers.
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