What the 'Doomsday Clock' Really Says About Investing By Vic Lederman, editor, True Wealth Real Estate
I joined Steve Sjuggerud's team about six years ago. And since then, I've focused on finding financial opportunities and sharing them with our paid subscribers. In that time, I've gotten one question with surprising regularity... "What happens to my investments if the world ends?" Seriously – I've even heard versions of it from some of the brightest minds in finance. Well, today, more people are asking that question than ever. It's possible you've even thought about it recently... That's because the so-called "doomsday clock" just hit 90 seconds till midnight. And media outlets everywhere are busy trumpeting the news to anyone who will listen. Now if you're not aware, the doomsday clock is supposed to tell us how close the world is to annihilation... Anti-nuclear-proliferation activists created the clock in 1947. Back then, they set it at seven minutes till midnight. And they've been using it ever since to try to scare people into caring about whatever the hot topic of the day is. Today, they say the war in Ukraine is what pushed the clock to "90 seconds from death's door." And sure... We all see the obvious risk there. So, we're supposedly closer than ever to the end of the world. But here's the thing... There's another side to this indicator. And it's a better sign for the future – and for investing – than you might think.
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Folks, the data is clear on this... "Doomsday," generally speaking, is good for investing. Now, I don't mean to be callous. Humans have suffered a tremendous amount in the modern era. But we also need to be realistic about humanity's march onward. The fact is, terrible events just don't derail the progress of history – or the markets – for long. That includes wars... The U.S. officially joined World War II at the end of 1941. That was a dark time for humanity. But we also know that in economic history, it was unquestionably a good time to invest. They called it the "post-war boom"... The market gained roughly 280% from its bottom in 1942 to its peak in 1956, adjusted for inflation. And that was only part of the boom. Don't forget, this time period also included the Korean War... At that time, America told its people that the world faced an existential threat from communism. Yet, despite that, the markets soared. We see this pattern repeatedly. Heck, even the recession in 1990 and Operation Desert Storm in 1991 didn't stop the S&P 500 Index from making new highs in 1992... and continuing its upward march. Folks, the reason for this is simple. The markets are broadly measuring the continued economic advancements of humanity. The darkest hours are exactly when we fight back the hardest. Heck, we've just done it again... beating back an entirely new airborne infection. When COVID-19 first struck, it seemed like the world was ending. No one knew what would happen. And the economy faced never-before-seen disruptions. Yet today, the market is still roughly 20% above its pre-COVID-19 high, even with the recent downturn. When you look at the doomsday clock this way, it's clear this indicator has another side – one that most folks don't see. "Doomsday" shows when fear and danger are at a peak... But it also shows when the potential for progress is highest. So, is global calamity possible? Sure. But if your investment strategy is betting on the end of humanity... go dig a hole and hide in it. We have hundreds of years of evidence telling us that people will do everything they can to keep advancing. And that means the markets will continue advancing too... even if the fearmongers think we're on the edge of disaster. Good investing, Vic Lederman P.S. My colleague Steve has been out of the spotlight for nearly two years now. But he's breaking his silence tomorrow at 8 p.m. Eastern time to deliver an important warning... and to sit down with the special guest who he calls "a brilliant analyst, with probably the highest mathematical aptitude of anyone I've ever met." You might know this speaker's work. But you've never heard him make a call this huge. He and Steve will explain a shift that's set to blindside most investors today... and why it could make you a lot of money if you play it right. Trust me. You don't want to miss it. This online event is completely free... And you'll even receive two stock ideas just for attending. Sign up here for free if you haven't already. | | | | Further Reading Most investors know the saying, "You want to buy when there's blood in the streets." The most frightening times tend to create powerful moneymaking opportunities. That's important right now – because after the declines we saw last year, fear is everywhere... Read more here. "Inflation caused most of the troubles that investors faced in 2022," Brett Eversole writes. Now, though, inflation is likely to fall. And while most folks won't believe it, history shows this could give stocks a huge boost this year... Learn more here. | | | | | Market Notes HIGHS AND LOWS NEW HIGHS OF NOTE LAST WEEK Chubb (CB)... insurance
Progressive (PGR)... insurance
BioMarin Pharmaceutical (BMRN)... pharmaceuticals
Oracle (ORCL)... cloud services
Pinduoduo (PDD)... Chinese e-commerce
Starbucks (SBUX)... coffee "World Dominator"
Ulta Beauty (ULTA)... makeup and skin care
Five Below (FIVE)... discount retailer
Deckers Outdoor (DECK)... lifestyle footwear
Tapestry (TPR)... high-end accessories
Ferrari (RACE)... luxury cars
Las Vegas Sands (LVS)... casinos and resorts
D.R. Horton (DHI)... homebuilder
General Electric (GE)... manufacturing
Caterpillar (CAT)... heavy machinery
United Rentals (URI)... equipment rentals
ExxonMobil (XOM)... oil and gas
Steel Dynamics (STLD)... steel NEW LOWS OF NOTE LAST WEEK Virtu Financial (VIRT)... financial services
CVS Health (CVS)... drugstores and vaccines
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