Selasa, 23 November 2021

Did the Fed Just Lie About QE?

Stocks opened slightly lower this morning before tumbling further shortly before noon.
November 23, 2021 1:02PM

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Did the Fed Just Lie About QE?

Stocks opened slightly lower this morning before tumbling further shortly before noon. Rising rates sparked the midday selling as tech shares endured most of the losses.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s nomination – something that initially sent equities higher yesterday –has clearly had a negative impact on sentiment. Hawkish fears caused a bearish finish to the trading session prior.

Today, investors saw more of the same.

But plenty of analysts still believe that Powell’s nomination will prove to be a net positive for stocks, even after this morning’s spike in rates.

“With a Powell-led Fed, we expect the speed of the QE taper to follow the data, likely speeding up if inflation prints continue at the pace of the October print with interest rate hikes to shortly follow the taper (June at current pace). The market believes this action will keep the Fed in control of inflation,” wrote Aptus Capital Advisors portfolio manager John Luke Tyner in a note to clients.

“While the market is expecting a more hawkish response to current inflation, time will tell if it will be enough, as Powell is well established in the dovish camp of FOMC policy.”

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Other analysts noted the difficult situation the Fed currently faces.

“Continuity at a time of such extraordinary uncertainty is certainly welcome news. We have extraordinary uncertainty because we’re pivoting from the phase of the cycle where the Fed had been shoring up the recovery from the pandemic-induced recession, and […] it did avoid a meltdown in financial markets,” said Diane Swonk, Grant Thornton chief economist.

“But now we’ve got very easy financial market conditions and we’re dealing with inflation. And having to pivot to dealing with inflation and tamp it down without derailing the recovery. That’s a very hard thing to pull off. We’ve not seen the Fed actually chase inflation down since the early 1980s.”

The 10-year Treasury yield is now within striking distance of its November high. However, Powell’s nomination alone didn’t cause it to rise today. Nor did inflation worries. Something odd happened with the Fed’s bond-buying programs that prompted the Fed to postpone its scheduled purchase of 7.5 to 30-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, otherwise known as TIPS.

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“Due to technical difficulties, today’s Treasury outright purchase operation - scheduled for 10:10 AM in the TIPS 7.5 to 30 year sector for up to $1.075 billion - is being rescheduled,” said the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

“It is now scheduled to take place Wednesday, November 24, 2021 at 11:00 AM.”

The postponement provoked heavy TIPS selling today which sent rates higher. Equities dropped in response to the rising rates.

If it’s true that the purchases were postponed for a purely technical reason, then rates should snap lower tomorrow and equities will likely rebound. On the other hand, the “technical difficulties” may actually be a smokescreen to cover for a lack of bond market liquidity. If that’s the case, rates should jump higher while stocks get crunched.

Don’t forget that the Fed just started throttling quantitative easing (QE). After more than a year and a half of unprecedented dovishness, hiccups were bound to happen.

Today’s bond-buying misfire may be the first of many. And it may also be the kind of thing that knocks bulls down a peg or two as inflation continues to heat up.

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