Senin, 08 Februari 2021

Treasury Bonds Are Setting up for a “Risk-Off” Rally

Another reversal is on the way.
Jeff Clark's Market Minute

Treasury Bonds Are Setting up for a "Risk-Off" Rally

By Jeff Clark, editor, Market Minute

After trending lower for the past several months, Treasury bonds look ready to rally.

We’ve been bearish on T-bonds for most of the past year.

We warned the bond bubble looked ready to pop last March. Then, we cautioned that T-bonds looked ripe for a sharp decline last October. And finally, we argued for a continued breakdown in the Treasury bond market in early November

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Now though, conditions are oversold enough that we could see a quick rally in U.S. Government bonds.

Take a look at this updated chart of the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (TLT)…

TLT has been in a steady downtrend – making lower lows and lower highs – since August. It’s approaching support near $148 per share. And, the chart has formed “positive divergence” on the recent decline.

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In other words, as TLT has dropped to a lower low, the various technical indicators have made higher lows. This sort of positive divergence is often an early warning sign of a reversal higher.

TLT had a similar setup in early November, just before a quick, two-week rally in Treasury bonds. A similar move this time could pop TLT back up to $155, or so, by the end of the month.

It’s worth noting that this potentially bullish setup in Treasury bonds is happening while bearish setups are forming in other “risky” assets.

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Investors and traders have been piling into speculative assets, without much concern for the risk of those assets. That’s usually what happens in a momentum-fueled rally – folks get rid of their conservative investments and throw money at “risk-on” trades.

But – for reasons we’ve pointed to over the past couple of weeks – it looks like the hot money is approaching a cooling-off period. And, as money comes out of those risky assets, it’s going to flow into “risk-off” assets like Treasury bonds.

Based on the look of the TLT chart above, that risk-off rally could get started soon.

Best regards and good trading,

Jeff Clark

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Have you made significant gains by being bearish on Treasury bonds these past few months?

Let us know your thoughts – and any questions you may have – at feedback@jeffclarktrader.com.

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