| By Bill Bonner Thursday, February 18, 2021 Slip sliding away, slip sliding away You know the nearer your destination, The more you’re slip sliding away – Paul Simon RANCHO SANTANA, NICARAGUA – On Monday, we reported the latest figures from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). They were shocking… but not surprising. We remind you that they are just part of a Big Picture. It is the picture of a degenerate empire, slip sliding since 1999… and now, desperately trying to hold itself together with printing-press money. But it’s gone so far down this road, it can’t turn around. Each time there is a “crisis,” it has to print more. And the more it prints, the worse the next crisis becomes. | Recommended Link | | Man Who Picked Apple Under $2 Issues NEW Urgent Buy He picked Apple back in 2003… BEFORE shares skyrocketed almost 48,000%. He picked Bitcoin when it was trading for just $428. Since then, it has exploded over 9,000%. And now, he’s saying this will be the hottest investment of 2021. | | | -- | Big Story Meanwhile, the people are distracted. Waiting for the stimmy checks or gawking at the clowns in their capital city… they hardly notice. Do you really think it matters that Janet Yellen is a woman rather than a man? Or how many BIPOCs attend cabinet meetings? Will those be the big stories of our time? Or how about “Russian aggression”… or Chinese cunning? Or the impeachment of Donald Trump? Or the weather in Texas? [Featured: Where America Goes From Here (It's a Nightmare)] What really matters to a nation? Money and war. War and money. Let either one get out of control, and you are headed for trouble. Which is why this is the story of our time… the big story of the 21st century… the story of how a great empire slid into the ditch. But it’s not an original tale. So today, we skip ahead… guessing how it might turn out. | Recommended Link | Check Your Cell Phone ASAP
Blindsided: Why 205 Million Americans Just Got This Nasty Update on Their Phones Smartphones carried by 205 million Americans have recently been automatically updated with a feature that would make most Americans uncomfortable. Your smartphone probably already has the feature, and if you knew what this update did, you might be furious. | | | -- | Flat Broke First, let’s recall the basic numbers from the CBO... The budget deficit will total $2.3 trillion – 10.3 percent of GDP – in FY 2021 and total $12.3 trillion (4.4 percent of GDP) over the next decade. Debt will reach a new record as a share of the economy, growing from over 79 percent of GDP at the end of FY 2019 to over 102 percent of GDP by the end of 2021… and will grow another $13.6 trillion by the end of 2031, ultimately reaching $35.3 trillion. Four major trust funds are on a path toward insolvency. CBO projects Highway Trust Fund insolvency in FY 2022, Medicare Hospital Insurance Trust Fund insolvency in FY 2026. Social Security Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund insolvency appears likely in calendar year 2032 and Social Security Disability Insurance Trust Fund insolvency in the mid-2030s. Debt could be even higher than projected. If policymakers enact $2 trillion of additional fiscal relief, extend expiring tax provisions, and grow annual appropriations with GDP, debt would total 120 percent of GDP by 2031. Now, let’s add some numbers of our own. This year, the feds will collect about $3.8 trillion in taxes. But they will spend $380 billion on interest on existing debt (at the lowest rates in history) and about $4 trillion on “transfer payments” (depending on how much stimmy the feds give out). You see the problem clearly, as we do. More than 100% of the feds’ revenue is spent before they ever begin governing. The “transfer payments” are things such as Obamacare, Social Security, and supplemental unemployment benefits – moving money from one pocket to another. But that leaves nothing for the Department of Defense. Nothing for the fight against COVID-19. Nothing for the thousands of boondoggles and bamboozles finagled over the years. In other words, the federal government is flat broke. It has not a single penny with which to fulfill its core responsibilities. Not a farthing for the courts. Not a peso for the Pentagon. And not a dollar for infrastructure… research… climate change… or anything else. [Featured: Hidden Time Bomb in Your Brokerage Account?] The Way It Works But those numbers – as awful as they are – will get much worse. And then, they will spin out into absurdity. Because the CBO’s estimates do not take economic setbacks, political jackassery, and market corrections into account. They assume things go on pretty much as they are, with no significant missteps… market crashes… interest rate increases… virus attacks… or recessions. That is not the way it works. Things go wrong. And the first thing to go wrong (which could begin any moment) is that the markets will blow up. They are in Bubbleland now, searching for sharp objects. Then, in a panic, the authorities will rush out more stimmy checks. No Alternative And here, Dear Reader, let us interrupt to connect a simple – but important – set of dots. There are no “decisions” to be made. There are no choices. There are no real alternatives. No “solutions.” It’s “inflate or die,” remember? And nobody wants to die… neither Republicans nor Democrats… nor any of the vast army of apparatchiks, hangers-on, lobbyists, members of Congress, media… deep staters… insiders… elite cronies… …nor the whole kit and kaboodle, the upper 10%, who control the government and have the most to lose when its system of fake-money finance blows up. Once you start down that road… you can’t even slow down. Because any attempt to raise interest rates to a more normal level… or ease off on the printing press… or cut the deficits… or trim the debt... will bring the very crisis the elite are so desperate to avoid. So, what happens? It just gets wackier and wackier. And the more slip sliding you do, the nearer your destination you get. Tune in tomorrow for more wackiness – on Wall Street. Regards, Bill
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As the Texas Big Freeze enters a fourth day, experts struggle to thaw out oil production infrastructure. Forty percent of the nation’s crude oil production is now offline, and a full resumption could take weeks. Crude markets in Europe are rallying as traders replace lost U.S. exports. MAILBAG In today’s mailbag, one dear reader responds to Bill’s Monday Diary, “Prisoners of Yesterday”... It's not “Us versus Them,” like some enormous, never-ending baseball season! No. Why doesn’t everyone understand that, with very few exceptions, money flows downhill almost unstoppably, hence the term “trickle-down economics.” No matter who is the current “Mariana Trench” of the economy, the “economic hydrologic” system is unstoppable. The best possible case is to build as many “reservoirs” as possible. Warren Buffett will eventually cede his position to some other “reservoir,” probably equally unable to “corner any market.” The economy is a “solvent,” like water, that ultimately equalizes everyone. Equality is unbeatable. – John D. Meanwhile, another is struggling to comprehend the debt and deficit figures Bill regularly quotes in his essays… The numbers have become too big. We need to find a way to scale them back to a level where more people can comprehend and act on the information. It reminds me of swimming in a community pool versus swimming in the deep blue sea. It doesn’t matter how deep the water is, if we know how to swim. What does matter is... Where is the edge of the pool or the shore for when we tire out? How cold is the water? Or how choppy? What dangers are beneath the surface? Perhaps you can reread the chapter in Moby Dick where the preacher uses the story of Jonah to drive home his point to the local sailors and fishermen. We need a powerful analogy for us poor landlubbers that drives home the point of the huge debt, profligate spending, and the scale of the military-industrial complex. I, for one, at times feel financially like a man swimming in a dangerous ocean. – Achilles Y. Do you believe equality is inevitable, as John D. believes? Can you think of another analogy to describe the U.S. government’s financial woes in a way that is more understandable to “landlubbers”? Write us at feedback@rogueeconomics.com. IN CASE YOU MISSED IT… China targeting Americans This is urgent. China's communist government is now targeting Americans directly. What they plan to do next should have everyone worried… Coronavirus deaths will pale in comparison to the results of this sinister act. Every American needs to watch this urgent briefing to learn more about this shocking situation… and find out how to prepare. Click here before it's too late! 
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