| By Bill Bonner Friday, January 29, 2021 WEST RIVER, MARYLAND – How’s the battle against COVID-19 going? After almost a full year, we thought we should check in. There is no need to remind dear readers – nor they to remind us! – we know nothing about epidemiology. Our views are simply those of someone who reads the news and tries to connect the dots. And we only bother with the coronavirus dots because it – and the American government’s response to it – just clipped $500 billion off the economy. Here’s Reuters: COVID-19 Savages U.S. Economy, 2020 Performance Worst in 74 Years The U.S. economy contracted at its deepest pace since World War Two in 2020 as the COVID-19 pandemic depressed consumer spending and business investment, pushing millions of Americans out of work and into poverty. Gross domestic product decreased 3.5% in 2020, the biggest drop since 1946. That followed 2.2% growth in 2019 and was the first annual decline in GDP since the 2007-09 Great Recession. So, was it worth it? Nobody Knows Readers will know as well as we do that much of the data is squirrelly. A “case” is not a death. And a positive test result is not necessarily meaningful at all; it depends on what the test was looking for and how the results were read. And if you ask the simplest, most basic question – How many people joined the shades because of the virus? – the answer is: Nobody knows. Most often, the victim had other ailments, so it was not clear what did him in. And some places reported more cases and deaths than they probably should have, while other places reported fewer. Still, corpses don’t lie. And the death counts are the data least likely to be fudged. So did the mitigation measures – lockdowns, face masks, and social distancing – result in fewer deaths… or not? Answer: We don’t know that, either. But it doesn’t look like it. [Featured: Stock Options are DEAD! "Penny Trades" have WON…] Sloppy Experiment In the U.S., it was a sloppy social science experiment. Some states tried to control the spread of the virus much more vigorously than others. Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, Arkansas, and South Dakota, for example, were half-hearted about it, at best. New York, Massachusetts, Wisconsin, California, and Illinois, on the other hand, allegedly did a better job. (For example, Andrew Cuomo, governor of New York, became a nationwide celebrity, of sorts, for appearing to lead the battle against the coronavirus.) Well… How did it turn out? Each state has its own particularities. But if the mitigations had any effect, you’d expect to see some sign of it. So let’s look. Here are the deaths per million of the abovementioned states, as of last week: Florida – 1212 Georgia – 1302 South Carolina – 1341 Arkansas – 1585 South Dakota – 1960 New York – 2221 Massachusetts – 2082 Wisconsin – 998 California – 1002 Illinois –1663 At first, they look like they’re all over the place. Looking more closely, we see that Andrew Cuomo might have led the charge, but he lost the war. New York has the worst result of the whole bunch. And it appears that even these were understated. Here’s the story from the Associated Press: New York may have undercounted COVID-19 deaths among nursing home residents by thousands, the state attorney general charged in a report Thursday that dealt a blow to Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s oft-repeated claims that his state is doing better than others in protecting its most vulnerable. The 76-page report found an undercount of more than 50%, backing up the findings of an Associated Press investigation last year that focused on the fact that New York is one of the only states in the nation that count residents who died on nursing home property and not those who later died in hospitals. And if we average out the death rates over the two groups – those with tight controls and those without them – we find that those that tried to stop the virus had an average of 1,593 deaths per million of population, while the others had an average of 1,480. In America overall, the death count is 1,336, so it appears that those places that the plague hit hardest were those that tried hardest to avoid it. International Comparison Looking at the rest of the world, we find more puzzlements. France has a lower body count – with 1,144 deaths per million. Britain is higher, at 1,515. But Germany has 671. The Dutch have 805 deaths per million, while Canada’s death toll is 518. Did the Germans, the Dutch, and the Canadians do a better job of keeping the illness at bay? Then what about Iraq, with even fewer COVID-19 corpses, at 320 per million… or Pakistan, with 52 per million? Did they do a better job, too? Oh… and there’s Sweden at 1,144 – lower than Britain or the U.S. Sweden famously took a path less traveled (at the start). And that has made little difference at all. When, in the early spring of 2020, it became clear that Sweden was not going to go into lockdown, media scolds were quick to issue warnings. The country would soon resemble the classic Swedish movie, The Seventh Seal, they said, which shows a knight returning from the Crusades to a country overrun by the plague. Death is everywhere. The New York Times put ink to paper, describing the coming Nordic apocalypse. It portrayed Sweden as a failed state, a “world’s cautionary tale,” against letting people ignore Dr. Fauci’s advice. [Featured: This one stock could be a game changer for you] Final Report So what happened? Well, a lot of people just failed to die. We have in front of us a study: “Final Report on Swedish Mortality 2020, Anno Covidius.” It appears, at least to us, to be a very reputable étude. The authors took the raw numbers… …and adjusted them for population growth… and an aging population… (more people = more deaths; more old people also = a higher death rate per million)… …and then smoothed them over two years (if fewer old people died in 2019, the 2020 death toll might naturally be higher)… …and then took out the immigrants (one out of five people in Sweden was born somewhere else. The immigrants are younger than the native-born population. They are more mobile, with different health habits and different living standards – thus skewing the results in one way or another…) The result? The report found that 2020 was almost like every other year! Here are the actual conclusions: Yes, COVID-19 was real (and continues to be real, at least until spring 2021, as is the case with all seasonal viruses). The number of deaths in 2020 was higher than it should have been, whichever way we define “excess.” Not exceptionally higher, and far from all the disaster scenarios painted by media, politicians, and failed scientists. Was COVID-19 our generation’s “Spanish Flu”? No. Far from it… Age-adjusted mortality in 2020 was on par with 2013. Was the Swedish government’s response adequate? To a large extent, yes… Where “The Strategy” failed was in protecting the frail and elderly, particularly those in the care homes… The psychological effect on populations having spent a year or more in lockdown, thus missing most of what makes life and living worthwhile, will be interesting to observe… as will be whether social interaction patterns and behaviors eventually return to normal, or whether our future social interactions will be so deeply ingrained by Anno Covidius that we will, similar to Pavlov’s dogs, continue regarding fellow human beings as potentially deadly virus vectors. You can make of this whatever you want. We take away two things. | Recommended Link | Coming Soon: 960X Bigger Than the COVID-19 Stimulus To fight COVID-19, the U.S. government gave biotechnology companies $1.25 billion in stimulus money. But this controversial FDA move… Has pumped $1.2 trillion into the sector. That’s 960 times bigger than the COVID-19 stimulus. It’s fueling a growing bull-run in biotech. And get this… Experts predict this FDA move could unleash another trillion, pushing biotechnology stocks even higher. Former Fortune 500 tech executive Jeff Brown has the full story… Including why only certain biotechnology companies will benefit from this next round of wealth. | | | | Indiscriminate Killer? First, transmission was much harder to stop than the authorities believed… On this point, Holman Jenkins of The Wall Street Journal came to the same conclusion: A 9-year-old could see the math didn’t work. Covid spreads more easily than the flu. An overwhelming share of cases are asymptomatic or indistinguishable from ailments that millions of Americans suffer every day. In a country as big, mobile and open as the U.S., there was zero chance of catching and isolating enough spreaders to matter. That was also the conclusion of Tufts Medical Center epidemiologist, Shira Dorn: Businesses and restaurants have not been shown to be a significant source of spread of infection, and it’s not clear that the additional measures that were instituted in November and December actually helped. Our second observation is that the coronavirus, as an indiscriminate killer, was greatly overrated. Regards, Bill Managing Editor’s Note: Yesterday, Bill and his Bonner-Denning Letter coauthor, Dan Denning, revealed their new Trade of the Decade. Bill’s previous two trades of the decade would have seen a 500%+ return… versus just over 120% for the S&P 500. If you’re already a Bonner-Denning Letter subscriber, click here to read all about Bill’s latest Trade of the Decade. If you’re not yet a subscriber, you can sign up here.
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MAILBAG In today’s mailbag, strong words from one dear reader about GameStop’s stock short squeeze… Bill, your arrogance is mind bending. These kids didn’t invent the squeeze. The stock market has always been a gaming platform. The house lost! The status quo got its a** handed to it on a platter. Now, everyone is whining to their lobbyists and congressman to further rig the game – in the house’s favor. These kids are sick of watching the well-connected a**holes, like Michael Milken, get their little greedy hands slapped, while keeping billions, unjustly enriching themselves while destroying others. The chickens have come home to roost! – Lloyd B. Meanwhile, others give their take on Bill’s “Sic Transit Gloria Trumpi” series (catch up here and here)… All I can say is, once again, you called it like it is. Capitalism is great. It is when guys like Trump ruin it. And then come the liberals who think if they give the people what they want, they’re safe and secure in their office. Trouble is, both paths have been leading to the collapse of this country for decades. – Bob W. When Trump’s rental agents were instructed not to rent to Blacks, don’t you consider that to be racist? The Trump organization was convicted twice! Also, Trump wanted the death penalty for the innocent Black kids in the Central Park rape years ago. In fact, he paid for full pages in the New York newspapers calling for their deaths. Did he admit he was wrong? His racist comments on Obama not being an American should have gotten your attention, Bill! Smarten up. Trump is a racist. – Steve G. And finally, two dear readers discuss the Patriot Act, after Bill mentioned it in Friday’s Diary, “Incompetent Morons”… Hi Bill, nice recap of the history of the Patriot Act. I can remember the original act included injecting GPS tracking chips into Americans. Hasn’t happened yet, but don’t hold your breath. In the near term, I can see another round of shut-ins (also illegal), and the mask police running rampant. Tough time to be an American. – Stephen B. Dear Bill, regarding the Patriot Act, I think you are confusing “America” post-Reagan, with “America”… when it consisted mostly of “Americans.” America, nowadays, seems to be infested with people who would do it harm, including plenty in government. – David H. Did America change, post-Ronald Reagan, as David says? How would you define the word, “American”? Write us at feedback@rogueeconomics.com. IN CASE YOU MISSED IT… President Reagan had a "secret weapon" that could save you from ruin, even now… Ronald Reagan had a “secret weapon” he would trot out in times of crisis. You could even say it was the secret to his legacy. You could also say that it’s this same “secret weapon” that could make you richer right now, in the face of yet another looming event. Which event, and what’s the timeless “secret weapon”? Take a look at the page linked below. At the top, you’ll find a short video clip – 75 seconds – of President Reagan himself, divulging the great secret to America’s success… Then, on the same page, the world’s most famous futurist shares how we can use that “secret” to save America from ANOTHER big event. And here’s a big hint: This NEXT BIG EVENT has nothing to do with a second wave of COVID lockdowns. It’s potentially much bigger. Follow this link… it’s got Reagan’s video plus more details. 
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