Minggu, 04 Oktober 2020

Let’s get straight to the point


Hello trader,

I could not talk about the biggest news event set to drive markets this week.

But that's not fair to you.

We can't ignore the fact President Trump contracted Coronavirus.

Markets didn't.

As soon as the news hit the wire, futures nosedived.



There are two important technical patterns in this chart as well.

So, I'm going to offer as objective a view as I can about the market impact.

That includes focusing on how large money investors and traders view things.

At the end of the day, markets do not care about my political opinion or yours.

All they care about is price discovery.


Markets aren't concerned yet


When news that President Trump contracted COVID, futures immediately sold off.

By the open, markets remained inside recent trading ranges.

This told me a bounce in equities was likely, which took place early in the day.

From there, markets diverged with technology continuing its slide while the S&P 500 stayed off its lows.

Here's how I believe investors view this situation.

At the moment, markets expect the president to recover. Any talk about the 25th amendment and such is meant for politicos, not traders.

I suspect market participants are weighing the impact on economic recovery.

They want to know whether this derails any reopening plans, curtails consumer activity, and anything else along those lines.

And right now, it does not appear they see that as likely.

I came to this conclusion looking at Friday's market activity. 

We saw technology sell off, but transports (IYT) finished higher on the day as did financials (XLF) and retail (XRT).


IYT Hourly Chart


If smart money expected coronavirus related restrictions to reemerge, these wouldn't be the names they bought up.

So as far as the markets are concerned, nothing has changed.


What could derail bulls


I know I state the obvious here. 

If the president's situation worsens or the COVID situation around him worsens substantially, that would be where I expect markets to sell off.

At that point, they would start to price uncertainty.

We saw what this looks like at the open on Friday.

Stay-at-home plays like Zoom (ZM) took off while everything else opened lower.


ZM Hourly Chart


Now, there is one other thing worth noting in the week ahead.


Don't forget about the Fed


We have multiple Fed speakers this week including Chairman Jerome Powell.

On Wednesday, we'll get a look at the minutes from their September meeting.

Up until now, every time Powell opens his mouth, the market drops.

News surrounding President Trump could eclipse that trend....

But I don't think so.

Unless things substantially change on that front, markets will be more interested in what Jerome Powell does or doesn't say.

We also hear from other Fed members, many of which continue their calls for more stimulus.

And with congress unlikely to act, the Fed may take it upon themselves to do so.

We already saw the recovery in the job market wane along with consumer income.

As more data becomes available, the Fed may decide additional stimulus may be necessary.

However, they might be reluctant to act if credit markets remain solvent.

The Fed is willing to juice employment and stabilize lending.

But, there are limits to their generosity (believe it or not).

They worry (as you will hear in their discussions this week) about interfering in the markets.

So, don't expect them to step in just because stocks start to slide.


Planning for the week ahead.


I can't tell you ahead of time what tweet or headline would be significant until it happens.

That's why I lay out everything in my morning newsletter to High Octane Option Members.

I read the market before the open, and relay my daily outlook and trading plan, along with my best trade idea of the day.

Having a gameplan for each day steers you through the headlines.

It keeps you focused on the trades and what matters.

And sometimes, that can mean not trading at all.

Click here to learn more about High Octane Options.




Stocks I want to bet against this week...

 XOM, XLE, XOP, PSX, UNG, RUN, CHD


Stocks I want to buy this week...

WMT, ZS, WORK, SPOT, ZM, DKNG, AMZN, AAPL, CHWY, V, RKT, CRM, COUP


This Week's Calendar


Monday, October 5th

  • 10:00 AM EST – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI September

  • 10:45 AM EST – Fed's Evan Speaks

  • 3:45 PM EST – Fed's Bostic Speaks

  • Major Earnings: None of note.


Tuesday, October 6th

  • 7:45 AM EST – ICSC Weekly Retail Sales

  • 10:40 AM EST – Fed's Powell Speaks

  • 2:00 PM EST – Fed's Bostic Speaks

  • 4:30 PM EST – API Weekly Inventory Data

  • Major earnings: Paychex (PAYX), Levi Strauss (LEVI)


Wednesday, October 7th

  • 7:00 AM EST – MBA Mortgage Applications Data

  • 10:30 AM EST – Weekly DOE Inventory Data

  • 1:00 PM EST – Fed's Rosengren, Bostic, & Kashkari Host Event On The Economy

  • 2:00 PM EST – FOMC Minutes

  • 3:00 PM EST - Consumer teCredit August

  • 4:30 PM EST - Fed's Evans Speaks

  • Major earnings: Lamb Weston (LW) 


Thursday, October 8th

  • 8:30 AM EST – Weekly Jobless & Continuing Claims

  • 10:30 AM EST – EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data

  • Major earnings: Acuity Brands (AYI), Domino's Pizza (DPZ) 


Friday, October 9th

  • 8:30 AM EST – September Jobs Numbers

  • 10:00 AM EST – Durable Goods & Factory Orders August

  • 8:30 AM EST – University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment September Final

  • 10:00 AM EST – Wholesale Inventory & Sales August

  • 1:00 PM EST – Baker Hughes Rig Count

  • Major earnings: Delta Airlines (DAL)



Jeff Bishop



RagingBull, LLC
62 Calef Hwy. #233, Lee, NH 03861

Click Here to stop receiving emails from support@ragingbull.com
Unsubscribe from all RagingBull emails

DISCLAIMER: To more fully understand any Ragingbull.com, LLC ("RagingBull") subscription, website,application or other service ("Services"), please review our full disclaimer located at https://ragingbull.com/disclaimer.

FOR EDUCATIONAL AND INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY; NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. AnyRagingBull Service offered is for educational and informational purposes only and should NOT beconstrued as a securities-related offer or solicitation, or be relied upon as personalizedinvestment advice. RagingBull strongly recommends you consult a licensed or registered professional before making any investment decision.

RESULTS PRESENTED NOT TYPICAL OR VERIFIED. RagingBull Services may contain information regarding the historical trading performance of RagingBull owners or employees, and/or testimonials of non-employees depicting profitability that are believed to be true based on the representations of the persons voluntarily providing the testimonial. However, subscribers' trading results have NOT been tracked or verified and past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results, and the results presented in this communication are NOT TYPICAL. Actual results will vary widely given a variety of factors such as experience, skill, risk mitigation practices, market dynamics and the amount of capital deployed. Investing in securities is speculative and carries a high degree of risk; you may lose some, all, or possibly more than your original investment.

RAGINGBULL IS NOT AN INVESTMENT ADVISOR OR REGISTERED BROKER. Neither RagingBull nor any of its owners or employees is registered as a securities broker-dealer, broker, investment advisor(IA), or IA representative with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, any state securitiesregulatory authority, or any self-regulatory organization.

WE MAY HOLD SECURITIES DISCUSSED. RagingBull has not been paid directly or indirectly by the issuer of any security mentioned in the Services. However, Ragingbull.com, LLC, its owners, and itsemployees may purchase, sell, or hold long or short positions in securities of the companies mentioned inthis communication.

If you have a current active subscription with Total Alpha Trading you will need to go to your subscriptions list inside the RagingBull Dashboard if you want to cancel your subscription. Opting out of emails does not remove you from your service at WeeklyMoneyMultipler.com.

Tidak ada komentar:

Posting Komentar