Investors sometimes ask for my opinion of a company's stock, based purely on the yield. I always caution them that a high yield could pose red flags that require further investigation. That said, there are stocks that yield 6%, 8%, or even more that are reasonably safe. Today, let's discuss why yields generally skyrocket and which warning signs you should heed. MPLX Case Study A company generally ends up with a high yield because the price has fallen. Consider MPLX LP (NYSE: MPLX). This master limited partnership (MLP) was formed by Marathon Petroleum (NYSE: MPC) to provide midstream services that include the gathering, processing and transportation of natural gas, natural gas liquids (NGLs), and crude oil and refined petroleum products. In 2018, MPLX was trading at about $35.00 and paid an annual distribution of $2.45 for a yield of about 7%. In 2019, with oil and natural gas prices under pressure, and with an activist investor seeking to break up MPLX, units fell to $26.00. But the company was still raising the distribution each quarter. By year end 2019, the annual distribution had risen to $2.67, which pushed the yield up to 10.3%. In March 2020, the collapse of oil demand due to the COVID-19 pandemic caused energy companies to collapse across the board. At its low, MPLX units fell all the way to $10.85, which pushed the yield to an astronomical 24.6%. A yield that high means that the company is undervalued, that the yield is unsustainable, or both. When I see a yield that high, I either expect the stock to rally or a distribution cut. Or both could happen. Check the Warning Signs How is an investor to know? While there are no guarantees, you can look for signs. One is whether the company is generating enough cash flow to cover the dividend and continue to operate its business. Continued strong cash flow is a sign that the company doesn't need to cut the dividend, regardless of how high the yield has gone. I would caution that companies have taken advantage of a high yield to make a cut, but they typically won't if cash flow still supports distribution. The second sign is to listen to public comments from the company, and to earnings calls. During the market plunge, energy bellwether Chevron's (NYSE: CVX) yield spiked up to 9.5%. But Chevron CEO Michael Wirth went on CNBC and said: "Our dividend is our number one priority and it's very secure. We're taking actions to preserve cash. It will have some impact on production in the near term, but we've stayed with our financial priorities, which include protecting the dividend." That's a strong assurance that, despite the high yield, Chevron wasn't about to make a cut. |
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