Jumat, 24 Juli 2020

The biggest social, economic, and political disaster in half a century

Bill Bonner’s Diary

The Biggest Social, Economic, and Political Disaster in Half a Century

By Bill Bonner

Friday, July 24, 2020 – Week 19 of the Quarantine

Bill Bonner

SALTA, ARGENTINA – There were seven police roadblocks between our farm and the capital city, Salta (about a four-hour drive).

Sometimes, we were waved through. Other times, we had to stop, answer questions, show our permission, get our temperatures taken… and at one stop, we had the pick-up truck sprayed with some kind of disinfectant.

“Why are you spraying the truck?” we asked. We had never heard of… nor ever imagined… that a pick-up truck might be a vector for the spread of the COVID.

“I don’t know,” came the answer. “But we want you to be safe.”

Panic Mode

The answer made no more sense than the action that instigated it.

“I don’t think anyone really knows,” explained a friend. “They might be doing it just to make people think they are taking this seriously. Or maybe they are just stupid.”

A neighboring province – Jujuy – is back to Full Lockdown after a surge in new cases.

And the TV news last night reported that the COVID-19 is getting worse and worse, with 5,786 new cases in Argentina on Wednesday alone… and 98 deaths.

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Beneath the news was a red banner with a single word: “URGENTE,” which needs no translation.

Ninety-eight people doesn’t seem like a lot to us. About half a million people die every year in Argentina.

But many countries are still in panic mode… and none more than this one.

Shocking Headlines

In America, as in Argentina, the press is beside itself. In yesterday’s U.S. news, for example, the three lead items on our computer screen were:

CNN: Birx warns of concerning rise in 12 cities

Reuters: US Coronavirus cases top 4 million

NBC News: About 40% of adults at risk for complications

Another shocking headline tells us that 145,000 Americans have now died “with” COVID (it is not clear what actually killed them).

As alarming as that sounds, it shrinks in context. Each year, some 2.5 million people in the U.S. die. And no matter how many vitamins they take or how many face masks they wear, eventually, the death rate goes to 100%.

Even if the total COVID deaths rise to 250,000 this year, a person is still 10 times more likely to die of something else. And if he dies from COVID, statistically, he’s lucky.

On average, COVID kills people at about 80 years old. That’s around five years more life than the average cancer victim and two years longer than the average death from all causes.

Besides, heart disease and cancer sneak up on you… and there’s not much you can do to protect yourself.

But COVID? It’s an infectious disease. It can be dodged… simply by staying away from other human beings and not eating raw bats.

But in the modern world – with its phony news and counterfeit policies – every “crisis” is an opportunity for the feds to declare war and pay for it with more fake money.

Lockdown Dilemma

Back here in Argentina…

The country has been under siege for more than four months. Shops closed. Roadblocks everywhere. Buses and trains stopped. Businesses shuttered.

It was beginning to open its doors this month… but now, it is between a rock and a hard place.

Having held the virus at bay with severe measures, if it relaxes its Lockdown measures now, the virus will run rampant and deaths will increase. But if it keeps the gates closed much longer… the whole population may soon be eating rats.

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The Lockdown seems to have bought some time… delaying the spread of the disease. But it did not go away. Instead, it waited… And now, the COVID works its way through susceptible populations, like a gigolo through a ladies’ club, taking advantage of the old, the weak, and those whose immune systems are not up to the challenge.

What to do? Close the gates again?

“These people don’t have a lot of savings. They aren’t rich. They live day to day,” our friend described what he sees going on around him.

“Out in the country, they get by… they don’t need much money to survive. But in the city, they need to earn money or they have no way to eat.

“The government said all employers had to keep paying them, but many small businesses are already out of money. They don’t have any way to pay their bills or their employees. Every day that passes, it gets worse. I don’t think we’ve even begun to reckon with the costs.”

When Cost Is No Issue

Reckon with the costs? What’s the matter, don’t the Argentines have a printing press?

As with any natural disaster, there are costs to be reckoned with. Hurricanes… earthquakes… droughts – all take their toll.

In every case, a person can protect himself. He can stay above the floodplain… build a solid house… buy insurance… and keep a supply of savings, food, and water.

But disasters still happen. And typically, both public policy and private initiatives are subject to a cost/benefit analysis.

How much will protection cost? What good will it do? What would we rather do with the money?

But why bother to do a cost-benefit calculation when cost is not an issue?

Honest money would force people to make honest choices – weighing the risks and deciding what to do.

Instead, the federales went to war… and created the biggest social, economic, and political disaster in half a century.

Stay tuned.

Regards,

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Bill

P.S. What’s next? What changes are coming… to our government… our society… our economy? And what should you do with your money NOW? We set out to answer those questions in a full report called After Armageddon… along with a Crisis Portfolio to guide you through these dangerous times. Read it here before it’s too late


Like what you’re reading? Send your thoughts to feedback@rogueeconomics.com.


FEATURED READS

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MAILBAG

A dear reader’s thoughts on Thursday Diary, “America: Locked and Loaded”…

You said that the Constitution forbids the printing of fake money. Thomas Jefferson studied why previous empires declined (Greece, Rome, Spain) and knew the reason, so that is one reason that clause is in the Constitution. So, why hasn’t someone, since the Federal Reserve came into existence in 1913, filed a lawsuit against the Fed?

– Frank G.

Another encourages Bill to ease up on his views of minorities

Bill, about 3/4 of what you say is right on and a minority view, and so especially valuable. But consider where you would be if your ancestors had been slaves, then “freed” but pushed into sharecropping, then moved north to escape the lynch laws in the South, then come back from fighting for the U.S. in our last sensible war to be excluded from federally subsidized mortgage programs that created the middle class. In other words, consider laying off the negatives about the poor and the Black people. They are doing the best they can.

– Jonathan D.

One dear reader sees Socialism in America’s future…

I can’t even try to put it as eloquently as our trusted author, yet any fool needs to see the trouble we are facing. Both candidates will light the last fuse, likely. But the worst-case scenario seems to be Biden and a Democratic Senate that will sap Biden’s veto power while giving away what’s left of the store. At that point, we don’t fear Socialism, we’re in it.

– Miguel C.

Still, another says Trump’s critics are justified…

“Donald” has made his own bed, so he needs to sleep in it. Some of his ideas and policies can be – and could have been – for the better and brought the country together… if he had gone about it in an ethical, prudent, and human manner. Don’t blame the “liberals” and feel sorry for poor “Donald” because he’s being unfairly picked on by his niece, CNN, and others. He has fractured his own political party. If he conducted himself as the world leader he is supposed to be, he along with our country wouldn’t be where we are today.

– Michael M.

Is the worst-case election scenario a Democratic victory, as Miguel believes? Has Trump fractured his own political party, like Michael says? Write us at feedback@rogueeconomics.com.

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT…

What's keeping Elon Musk up at night?

Tesla is facing a shortage of a critical metal…

Lithium.

CEO Elon Musk is so concerned, he even suggested Tesla might go into the mining business.

"We'll do whatever we have to do."

Now, there is a massive new discovery of lithium right here in America.

It's just 214 miles away from Tesla's giant Gigafactory.

And at full production, it could supply Tesla with 46 years' worth of lithium.

One tiny $4 company owns the mine.

And shares could soar if they sign a deal with Tesla.

Dave Forest discusses this developing situation and how investors can take advantage here.

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