Jumat, 03 April 2020

The Importance of this Symbiotic Relationship

Gilder's Daily Prophecy

April 3, 2020

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The Importance of this Symbiotic Relationship

George GilderDear Daily Prophecy Reader,

Whenever I spoke in China over the last year pushing Life After Google, I spoke of "yuanfen" between the technology cultures of the two nations.

Yuanfen is a Chinese word meaning mutual destiny or entanglement, the fate that brings two people or peoples together.

I believe yuanfen is true — that our two economies mutually rest on symbiotic technologies that converge in Taiwan. Taiwan (with Israel) is at the most fertile crescent of the world economy, where our silicon chips, silica fibers, electrons, photons, Chinese manufacturing, and Silicon Valley inventions mingle in yuanfen, with wafer fabs and erbium amplifiers and Moore's Law luminosity.

The epitome of yuanfen is Morris Chang, a now Taiwanese-American engineering billionaire. Born in Ningbo, Zhejiang province, near Hangzhou in China south of Shanghai, Chang fled the Communists to Hong Kong in 1948 as a 17-year-old boy.

He ended up gaining admission to Harvard, then shifting as a sophomore to MIT, before getting a series of jobs in the nascent semiconductor industry and a PhD en passant in electrical engineering from Stanford.

After joining Texas Instruments in 1958, where Bill Kilby that September cobbled the first crude prototypes of integrated circuits, the young Chinese immigrant soon took over as chief of engineering. During his 25 years at TI, he became the vice president in charge of its worldwide semiconductor business and pioneered its learning curve model of microchip pricing and progress.

If TI's good-old-boy board had made Chang the CEO, that Texas company would likely have forged ahead to become the world's leading semiconductor company. By contrast, Intel's board boldly named refractory Hungarian immigrant genius Andy Grove as its chief and Intel usurped TI as the industry's spearhead.

Yuanfen was at work, however. It took Chang to Taiwan in 1983, where he fulfilled Caltech legend Carver Mead's vision for the industry by building the first great silicon foundry, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation (TSMC). At the time, in order to make a new chip, you had to build a chip factory. "Then if you had any money left," as Nvidia chief Jen Sun Huang put it, "you could think about designs."

Mead at the time was evangelizing the vision of a separation of the industry between millions of designs and a few great wafer-fab foundries. Launched in 1987, TSMC under Chang's visionary leadership has now become by far the world's leading semiconductor foundry.

Manifesting TSMC's preeminence is not only its unique new five nanometer process, its scores of thousands of customers, and its some $35 billion in revenues and $12 billion in profits, but the fact that the world's leading technology companies all depend on it to manufacture their most complex and critical systems on a chip.

Converging at TSMC are Apple Computer, Google, Qualcomm, and Nvidia from the US and Huawei, Alibaba, Tencent and blockchain-star Bitmain from China. All the leaders and thousands of others depend on Morris Chang's factories to build their unique world leading products.

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These Two Nations Must Come Together

Today the US is trying to bring China down by depriving the country of access to these leading wafer fabs. Our grounds are that Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) uses chip making gear from such companies as Applied Materials (AMAT) and Lam Research (LAM) that are crucial to our national security.

To China, this will seem an act of war, overthrowing decades of delicate agreements and implicit forbearance represented by our mutual one-nation, two-systems policy. On this contrapuntal dance of delicate contradictions has peace in Asia been maintained for the last half century.

Today, resentment runs understandably high against China and the bat flu it inadvertently released on the world and then brazenly blamed on the US Army. Meanwhile the US imputes all that is wrong in the world to China. Some yuanfen of mystical unity!

But the loss of yuanfen could be fatal for US technology leadership and national security.

While the US attacks our leading technology companies on spurious privacy and monopoly grounds, China has exploited its technology leadership to keep its economy humming during the crisis.

The Chinese are back at work. Huawei announced that it actually increased revenues in the first quarter despite the US crackdown and the coronavirus. Chinese facial recognition and geolocation tools enable 98% of the people to get on with their lives. Because we think facial recognition invades privacy — and we are in some ways behind China — we lock everyone up in the name of freedom.

The New York Times sees our investment choice Alibaba (BABA) as a vessel of Orwellian technologies of mass surveillance by a police state. But the issue is not Alibaba's technology but likely Communist abuse of it. The terrible truth is that US "decoupling" from China will remove the best hope of remedies for the rising Communist oppression.

Despite many transitional errors and frictions that are inevitable with a major set of innovations, freeing 98% of the people to continue their lives and production is an epochal test and achievement of the new technologies.

Today's Prophecy

In my view, the US is in the danger of giving up world leadership. Together with our imbecile blather of "climate change," we are incurring $2 trillion of new debt, shutting down our economy, and suffering a 30% drop in GDP.

With China thriving still, and the US shutting down, there is a real danger of an inflection point where the Communist model prevails. A "green new deal" would signal the end of US leadership.

The deeper issue is how to change Communism. My hope in Life After Google is that blockchain technology offers a redemptive new path to the restoration of individual rights. Blockchain is a counterbalance to the possible perils of the new surveillance tools.

Just as microchip technology proved to be a remedy for previous fears of a mainframe computer regime of giant companies and bureaucracies, with IBM ruling the world, the blockchain can offer a new route toward addressing the global crises of Internet security and debauched money.

This is a moment of crisis, which combines challenge and opportunity. Smart investors will bet on the new technologies of distributed freedom and security, privacy, and identity. They can prevail over all the powers and principalities of the world.

Regards,

George Gilder

George Gilder
Editor, Gilder's Daily Prophecy

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