Bullish Signs from Market Indicators First and foremost, let's take a look at the ratio between stocks and Treasuries. Stocks are a risk asset. Treasuries are a safe haven. So when this line rallies, it means stocks are outperforming Treasuries and we're in a "risk on" environment. Similarly, when this line falls, it means Treasuries are outperforming stocks and we're in a "flight to safety" environment. Note that the line is moving higher and has just broken above a 50% retracement of its collapse form March. That's VERY bullish. Another item I'm looking at are corporate credit spreads. Credit spreads measure the difference between yields on corporate bonds and the yields on Treasuries. Like stocks, corporate bonds (particularly junk bonds) are a risk asset. Treasuries are a safe haven. So when this line rallies, it means junk bonds are outperforming Treasuries and we're in a "risk on" environment. Similarly, when this line falls, it means Treasuries are outperforming junk bonds and we're in a "flight to safety" environment. Note that this line has held support (red line) and is now breaking a downtrend. This too is a BIG "risk on" signal from the financial system. Again the fact that this is happening during an economic depression is insane to me. But as investors, it doesn't matter what we think… it's what the market thinks that matters. And the market thinks more upside is coming. Best Regards, Graham Summers Editor, Money & Crisis |
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