Jumat, 03 April 2020

Doug Casey: Now’s the Time to Speculate on Silver

Trouble viewing this e-mail? Click here to read it online

CASEY DAILY DISPATCH - Casey Research

Doug Casey: Now's the Time to Speculate on Silver

By Doug Casey, founder, Casey Research

Doug Casey

The ratios between various commodities are absolutely important.

For instance, there's a certain amount of substitutability between copper and aluminum for electrical conductors. So the price ratio between the two of them is important in deciding which to use.

There's a ratio between the price of hogs and the price of cattle. People will buy one or the other, depending on the price ratio between them. This is true of all commodities. Prices are relative. And always changing.

Take another example: The price ratio of palladium and platinum is very important. Both are used as automotive catalysts. It determines when you use one or the other, because there's a lot of substitutability between those things as well.

As far as gold and silver is concerned – let me be clear on this – there is no magic fixed ratio between them. The US government arbitrarily fixed the ratio between gold and silver at around 17-1 for almost 200 years – a bimetallic standard. That was foolish – but possible – in technologically simple times.

It’s a mistake because the market, not politicians, should determine ratios. So what should be the approximate ratio between gold and silver?

Some rough numbers: There are probably about 6 billion ounces of gold that have been mined since the dawn of history; most of that is still above ground, and available.

It's not like copper or aluminum or iron, where it's “consumed.” Gold is held, because its primary use is money. How much silver has been mined? In the Earth's crust, there's probably about 10-15 times more silver than there is gold. And that's reflected in the annual production figures: roughly 80 million ounces of gold, 800 million ounces of silver.

But if there are 6 billion ounces of gold above ground in inventory, there is nowhere near 10 times that amount of silver in inventory above ground. At this point, there are probably only about 2 billion ounces of silver in inventory. It used to be almost on par with gold as money, but that’s changed. Now it’s mainly a specialized industrial metal. So it’s “consumed” in much the same way as copper or aluminum.

Incidentally, the amount of silver in inventory is now less than it ever has been, because not so very long ago – up to 1965 – there used to be 2 billion ounces floating around in US coins alone. It’s also gone from photography, which consumed about half up to about 2000. Its price has held up surprisingly well, considering its two major uses have disappeared, and production keeps going up. 

Anyway, coming back to the point on ratios, what should the ratio between gold and silver be? Right now, it's close to 100-1. So gold is expensive in terms of silver. Silver is cheap now; it’s an excellent speculation.

There are more technological uses developed for silver every day than for gold – because it’s cheap. True, gold is the most inert, the most malleable, and the most ductile of all metals. But silver is the most electrically conductive and the most optically reflective of metals. They're both high tech metals, where new uses are being developed constantly.

Recommended Link

Former $200 Million Money Manager Shares Trading Secret

ad_img

Meet master options trader, Jeff Clark.

While working as a private money manager, he controlled as much as $200 million on behalf of the Silicon Valley elite, Fortune 500 executives, and even pro athletes.

And over the past few years, he's called exactly 493 winning options plays.

But he's recently admitted he's been taking money OUT of options…

The reason why could help you double your money in as fast as 30 days…

Show Me How
 

The interesting thing is that silver is a much, much smaller market than gold. And when the public gets manic in a monetary crisis, silver is much more volatile, since it's a much smaller market. People rush to buy gold and silver, which they think is one thing.

That's a good reason to be in silver right now, when the markets are weak and it's cheap. Another point that should be made is that almost all gold mines now are very profitable. In fact, production costs are dropping with the price of oil – which is a major cost.

But there are very few profitable standalone silver mines. It's mostly a byproduct of gold, copper, lead and zinc. So if gold goes to $5,000 an ounce, which it will at some point, in terms of present dollars, there will be a lot more gold production.

But if silver goes to $100 an ounce, which I think it will, there won't be an awful lot of new silver production, because it's mainly dependent upon lead, zinc, copper, and gold production. So I think the play right now is probably in silver.

That said, it takes so much silver to be of value that I do my saving in gold, not silver. To put it in as simple a way as possible: gold is for saving, silver is for speculation.

Regards,

signature

Doug Casey
Founder, Casey Research


Reader Mailbag

Yesterday, Jeff Brown shared why 5G is set to launch a revolution in health care. And several readers wrote in, worrying that the networks could actually be dangerous to their health.

Gene and Mary think we should keep this “evil agenda” out of America at all costs:

Ask the health industry experts. You will get a different answer. I want to see and be told truthfully about the studies into 5G. If there are dangers of any kind, then keep it the HELL out of our country!

– Gene

I do not like the idea of 5G. My thoughts are that it is dangerous and the microwaves that it emits will cause many detrimental effects on humans, along with other living things. I do not submit to this evil agenda!

– Mary

Mag says we should “pull the plug” on 5G, and wonders if the coronavirus outbreak is being used to “hide” the network rollout from the public.

A massive coverup of illnesses in Wuhan, and a possible deception to hide 5G by constantly putting the coronavirus in the mainstream media headlines? Some 250 scientists around the globe said no to this network because of massive increases in cancer. Forget the enthusiasm, just pull the plugs.

– Mag

And while Dayna offers some kind words, she cautions that everyone should consider the moral implications of their investments…

I always enjoy reading the research emails that come out. But I do have to say I’m disappointed in Jeff Brown’s constantly pounding the table about 5G. I think there comes a point where every investor needs to make moral and ethical decisions, whether they can make money in it or not.

And there’s too much evidence out there that 5G is harmful, not only to humans, but to the electromagnetic fields of the Earth. I would prefer Jeff at least present both sides of the story.

– Dayna

We know that many readers worry about the potential health effects of 5G – in fact, it’s one of the most common questions Jeff Brown receives. But he’s convinced 5G poses no threat to our health. To read his full report on these concerns, click here. And as always, let us know your thoughts at feedback@caseyresearch.com.


In Case You Missed It…

Major 5G Growth Phase Coming

A major 5G event is about to take place, and Silicon Valley insider Jeff Brown believes it could send a group of small stocks soaring.

During his first-ever State of 5G Summit, Jeff will discuss some of his favorite stocks.

Register here for FREE.

Get Instant Access

Click to read these free reports and automatically sign up for daily research.

image

Jeff Brown’s Tech Manifesto

image

How You Can Start Profiting From Maganomics Today

image

The Trader's Guide to Technical Analysis

Casey Research
55 NE 5th Avenue
Delray Beach, FL 33483
www.caseyresearch.com

Share FACEBOOK
Tweet TWITTER

Privacy Policy | Terms of Use

Tidak ada komentar:

Posting Komentar