AT&T will sell Time Warner, relieve itself of debt and focus on bandwidth; or it will go down. Comcast will sell its TV network, its movie studio, and its theme park because it will be more profitable to reinvest in its network. Augmented reality will kill theme parks anyway. The other cable companies will similarly realize that the their "fiber to the node" networks are suddenly worth far more than the distractions of having to find material to send across them. Supply creates its own demand. Over the next few years, upload speeds — the speed at which ordinary consumers can contribute content to the network — will grow relatively faster even then the rapidly accelerating download speeds that deliver content to them. Live streaming video without stutter or stalls will be first universally demanded and then ubiquitous. As I predicted in Life After Television more than 30 years ago, what we now call "user created content" will continue to multiply and steal viewers from Hollywood. The providers of bandwidth will decisively give up the "gotcha" business of trying to control what customers can view, and see the attractions of the "letcha" business of enabling and multiplying their choices. Today's Prophecy Throughout the economy, in healthcare, education, finance, retail, gaming, the supply of bandwidth will only whet appetites for more. The near universal demand for business applications of artificial intelligence will absorb more bandwidth than the entire internet provides today. In this environment sitcom, re-runs or even sexy Scandinavian crime dramas complete with comely blondes underdressed for the weather, will look decidedly less enthralling as business propositions. Not every bandwidth provider will thrive. Some will realize too late that their networks are more valuable to their customers than their tired TV offerings. But some companies that today look old and tired, with stock prices long in the doldrums even before the coronavirus, will find themselves suddenly rich along with their investors. And a host of new firms — some enablers of bandwidth, others brilliantly exploiting it — will enrich investors even more dramatically. I feature several in upcoming issues of George Gilder's Moonshots, which you can learn more about here. There is an awful lot of hype and nonsense circulating about 5G. The reality though is far more exciting than the hype. A true internet economy, not possible even a decade ago, is being born all around us. The markets may be having a coronary, but this is a great time to be an investor. Regards, George Gilder Editor, Gilder's Daily Prophecy |
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