Sabtu, 17 Agustus 2019

How to Profit From America’s Unseen Infrastructure Crisis

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CASEY DAILY DISPATCH - Casey Research

Chris’ note: Chris Reilly here, managing editor of Casey Daily Dispatch.

Today, I’m handing the reins to my colleague Jeff Brown to tell you about a crisis in America that no one’s talking about… and the one technology that could solve it.

Below, Jeff explains how this technology works… and why it will bring early investors windfall profits. 


How to Profit From America’s Unseen Infrastructure Crisis

By Jeff Brown, editor, Exponential Tech Investor

Jeff Brown

America is facing an unseen infrastructure crisis…

To be clear, I’m not talking about infrastructure like roads, bridges, or canals. In fact, you might argue that the infrastructure I’m referring to is far more important.

That’s because it’s at the center of modern society. How we do business, shop, and communicate depends on it. In fact, I’m certain you use this infrastructure every single day.

I’m referring to America’s wireless networks – the vast systems of cell towers and fiber-optic cables that make it possible for you to get online.

Most people don’t realize it, but America’s current wireless networks are quickly becoming obsolete.

And unless this is corrected soon, it could have dire consequences for America’s economy…

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Evolution of a Network

Whenever you connect to the internet on your computer, smartphone, or smart TV, a vast physical infrastructure makes that connection possible.

For instance, there’s a 500,000-mile network of fiber-optic cables beneath the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. It carries most of the world’s internet traffic. These transoceanic cables connect to vast, land-based fiber-optic networks, which, in turn, connect to consumers’ homes and businesses.

Over the years, this massive network has evolved. Companies and governments built new infrastructure to support the next generation of wireless connectivity.

We built out the 1G (first-generation) network in the 1980s. Compared to what’s possible today, it didn’t allow you to do much. You could only place voice calls – there was no way to use other types of data. And you had to carry one of those brick-sized cell phones Gordon Gekko yaps into in the movie Wall Street.

Then, in the 1990s, we got 2G. With it, you could send and receive emails and text messages.

Next, in the early 2000s, 3G brought faster connection speeds. The quality wasn’t always the best. But for the first time, you could stream video and audio.

Finally, we got the network we use today – 4G. It went live at the start of this decade.

But today’s 4G network faces a problem. It can be summed up in one word: data.

Both consumers and businesses have a seemingly endless thirst for consuming and sending more data over wireless networks.

The chart below shows the amount of data and voice traffic over the world’s wireless networks since the first quarter of 2014.

Chart

The chart shows the exponential growth in demand for sending and receiving data (like images, music, and websites) over wireless networks.

The amount of voice traffic (in gray) has been roughly constant over the last five years. But what’s striking is that data (in blue) has exploded. In the first quarter of 2018, nearly 15 exabytes of data were transmitted per month. A year later, that number is nearly 30.

An exabyte is equivalent to 100,000 times all the printed material in the Library of Congress. All the words ever spoken by human beings can be contained in five exabytes. It’s hard to get your head around.

So what does this mean for internet users?

Have you had a dropped call in the last 12 months? Or how about when you dial a number and someone picks up, but you can’t hear them? Has the internet been slow to download a web page? Can’t seem to download or send your email?

These issues are almost always due to network congestion. Just like when there’s a traffic jam on a highway and the cars aren’t moving… there can be too much data on a wireless network – and the digital packets of information just can’t get to where they need to go.

And it may surprise you to learn that this problem is rather unique to the U.S.

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America’s Sluggish Wireless Networks

With an average download speed of 16 Mbps (megabits per second), the U.S. has some of the slowest internet speeds in the world.

Megabits per second, or Mbps, is a common measurement for internet connection and download speeds. For example, to stream a high-definition video from Netflix, you need a download speed of at least 5 Mbps.

We’re in 62nd place, behind countries like Romania (at 28 Mbps) and Finland (at 26 Mbps). Even Dracula and the reindeer have internet speeds faster than most Americans.

Chart

Why is this such a big deal?

At an economic level, it’s a significant competitive disadvantage. Work and digital services are mobile these days. Many companies have a “mobile-first” strategy that prioritizes access to products or services via mobile devices like smartphones.

More and more business is conducted online, and productivity is dependent on having reliable internet access.

America’s overloaded 4G networks could soon pose a serious threat to the economy’s ability to keep pace with the rest of the world.

Fortunately, help is on the way…

The Future of the Internet

As I write this, we are in the midst of a new communications infrastructure buildout. New towers are going up. New fiber-optic lines are being laid.

The purpose of this buildout is to upgrade America’s failing communication infrastructure to the next generation of wireless connectivity: fifth-generation, or 5G.

With 5G, the peak speed jumps to 10 gigabits per second (Gbps). One gigabit is 1,000 megabits. So at peak speed, 5G will be 1,000 times faster than the average 4G connection we have today.

Even if we assume that average 5G speeds will be just 10% of their potential, we’re still looking at 1,000 Mbps. That means that average 5G speeds will be 100 times faster than what we have today.

With that kind of speed, you’ll be able to download a two-hour movie in 10 seconds. Dropped phone calls and slow-loading web pages will be things of the past.

Plus, 5G is a game changer because of all the technological innovation it will bring about. Some previously “sci-fi” tech will finally become a reality. Technologies like self-driving cars, virtual reality, and holographic projection will all operate over high-speed 5G connections. The applications are endless.

I also estimate that 5G will create an additional 3 million jobs. That includes jobs associated with building and maintaining the wireless networks, as well as jobs associated with products and services that will be created thanks to the high speeds of 5G. It will also add about $500 billion in U.S. GDP growth.

If you want to set yourself up to profit from this trend, I recommend looking at companies that provide critical network infrastructure.

American Tower (AMT) is one such company. It builds and maintains communications infrastructure like cell towers. It was instrumental in the 4G buildout that started in 2011. And it’s also heavily involved in erecting and maintaining the towers used in the 5G buildout.

And here’s the thing… While the infrastructure buildout will take years to cover the entire country, 5G services are already going live. By the end of the year, there will be 100 5G markets online.

I’ve said it before. 5G isn’t just evolutionary, it’s revolutionary. And it’s nearly here.

Regards,

Jeff Brown
Editor, Exponential Tech Investor

P.S. This is an investing trend you can’t afford to ignore. A few key investments could deliver you 10 times your money, perhaps more, as this unstoppable trend gets underway.

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Reader Mailbag

Do you believe 5G will be a revolutionary technology? What kind of impact do you think it will have on your daily life? As always, send any questions, comments, or concerns to feedback@caseyresearch.com.


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