sport football: What You Need To Know For December 18th

Welcome back,

Harry here.

Well this is it, we have a quick survey we'd love for you to take a look at as we look towards 2026 and onwards. Thank you for your readership. We are immensely grateful and excited to continue delivering for you in 2026. Additionally, I will be writing an important year-end newsletter next week that I would love for you to read. Sign up here to get it next week.

The market continues to be quite spooked over Oracle, with the headline around Blue Owl not being selected as a lender on a data center project having some folks concerned about financing. Oracle's aggressive and levered approach to AI spending is highly contingent on demand from OpenAI being robust. Notably though, the Information reported last night that OpenAI is looking to raise up to $100B at a $750B valuation! This would be an insane haul of a company with ~$13B of revenue, but Sam Altman recently said OpenAI is actually tracking towards ~$20B of ARR.

In some ways, I have to admit, given all the worries we're seeing in the public markets around AI, I wouldn't necessarily understand ppl doing an unprecedented type of deal to finance OpenAI. $100B at $750B is quite the check. But hey, if it happens, we'll eat our words! Let's get into it.

Earnings Corner 📈 📉

Lennar $LEN ( ▼ 4.54% ) Revenue beat, but earnings missed as Lennar leaned harder on incentives to keep homes moving in an affordability constrained market. Orders and deliveries held up, but margins are sliding and guidance points to continued pressure, reinforcing the theme that builders can defend volume for now, but only at the expense of profitability.

Micron $MU ( ▼ 3.01% ) Revenue and EPS beat as tight memory supply met surging AI data center demand, giving Micron real pricing power. Strength in high bandwidth memory is turning the AI buildout into margin expansion and cash flow, not just higher volumes. Guidance came in far above expectations, forcing investors to rethink how strong and long lasting this memory cycle could be.

Get up on to speed on Accenture: With $ACN ( ▲ 0.63% ) reporting earnings this morning, read our earnings preview on Accenture that we sent out to Investing Club members earlier this week.

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2025's Best Reviewed Firms 🔍

Buyside Hub ran the the inaugural "best reviewed firms" of the year, and the following 12 firms made the list. Buyside Hub is a community based platform used by 10,000 users who are trying to understand Buyside & IB compensation trends and culture insights.

PJT Partners
Raymond James
MidCap Financial
First Citizens Bank
First Eagle
BMO
KKR
Blackstone
Piper Sandler
Ares
Moelis
TD Securities

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Today's Headlines 🍿

Blue Owl backs out of Oracle deal: Blue Owl no longer plans to back Oracle's $10B data center project for OpenAI. Concerns about Oracle's growing debt, shifting market sentiment around data center spending, and Blue Owl's already-significant exposure to Oracle caused the lender to push for stricter leasing and debt terms. The two sides couldn't reach an agreement, leading to Blue Owl backing out and Oracle beginning the search for a new financial partner
Warner Bros latest: Warner Bros. has advised shareholders to reject Paramount's takeover bid, saying that Netflix's $72B offer for its studios and HBO streaming service remains superior. The company called Paramount's proposal "inferior" and said that Larry and David Ellison "consistently misled" them throughout the process. Warner Bros. also raised concerns about the credibility of the equity being offered by Paramount, warning that their financing commitment contains "gaps, loopholes and limitations" that could put the company at risk
- Additionally, Warner Bros. said they didn't see a "material difference in regulatory risk" between the Netflix and Paramount deals. A smooth regulatory process, stemming from the Ellisons' relationship with Trump, is a main selling point for Paramount. If both bids carry a similar likelihood of approval, Netflix and its already-solidified position in the streaming world looks to be the preferred option for Warner Bros.
- Meanwhile, Jared Kushner's PE firm Affinity is dropping out of Paramount's bid, citing changing dynamics. The firm's exit isn't expected to upset the wider group, which consists of three Gulf sovereign-wealth funds, and it's still possible that Paramount comes back with a bigger offer
Elliott is entering Lulu: Activist investor Elliott has built a stake of over $1B in Lululemon and is pushing for former Ralph Lauren executive Jane Nielsen to be the new CEO. Founder Chip Wilson has also criticized the company, calling out the lack of innovation and $LULU ( ▲ 0.55% ) "losing its cool."
Robotaxis Go Mainstream as Waymo Pulls Ahead: Autonomous ride-hailing crossed a commercial tipping point in 2025, with Alphabet's Waymo operating or preparing launches across 26 markets and logging roughly 450k paid rides per week. Amazon's Zoox and Tesla both debuted early services, but Zoox remains pre-revenue pending regulatory approval while Tesla's Robotaxi rollout still relies on human safety drivers and faces mounting scrutiny
Jobs Growth Stalls as Unemployment Ticks Higher: The U.S. added just 64k jobs in November, well below recent trends, while unemployment rose to 4.6%, its highest level in more than four years. The delayed report — disrupted by a six-week federal shutdown — also revealed a net loss of 105k jobs in October, driven largely by federal workforce reductions. While healthcare and construction added jobs, losses in manufacturing and leisure signal a broader cooling that has already pushed the Fed to cut rates three times since September
Google's Home Listings Test Sparks Real Estate Stock Rout: Shares of Zillow, CoStar, and other real estate portals slid after Google was spotted testing homes-for-sale ads directly at the top of search results, threatening a core source of traffic and agent leads. The feature includes photos, pricing, tours, and agent contact and reinforces long-term fears that Google could disintermediate real estate platforms at the top of the funnel
Fed Chair latest: After interviewing both Kevin Warsh and Kevin Hassett last week, Trump is set to interview another candidate in Fed governor Christopher Waller. While he has been a leading advocate for rate cuts this year, Waller says he would "absolutely" stress the importance of central bank independence to Trump. Warsh and Hassett both received praise from Trump and were announced as favorites for the role, but Hassett's candidacy has received pushback from several high-level advisors who are concerned he is too close to the president. Hassett currently has the highest odds to be nominated at 51% on Kalshi

Spirit Airlines Revives Frontier Merger Talks: Bankrupt Spirit is back in discussions to merge with Frontier in a potential deal that could provide a Chapter 11 exit and create the 5th largest U.S. airline by passenger miles. The tie-up reflects mounting pressure on ultra-low-cost carriers as legacy airlines squeeze discounters with basic economy fares and broader networks. A merger would add roughly 100 planes to Frontier's fleet at improved lease terms
Carlyle Takes $100M+ Hit on iRobot Loan: The PE giant lost more than half of the value of its $200M loan it extended to Roomba maker ahead of the failed Amazon acquisition, which collapsed after EU regulatory opposition. After being partially repaid, Carlyle sold the remaining debt at a steep discount to a Chinese supplier that is now set to take control through bankruptcy
Banks Quietly Fuel Private Credit Boom: U.S. banks increased lending to private credit funds, private equity firms, and hedge funds by 26% this year, extending roughly $363B of new loans to non-bank financial institutions through late November, according to Fitch. Regulatory capital rules and strong borrower demand are pushing banks deeper into the $1.7T private credit ecosystem, tightening interdependence between traditional lenders and alternative capital
- But Private Credit Defaults are Likely to Rise in 2026: Morningstar DBRS warned that weakening profit margins and rising leverage among private credit borrowers are setting the stage for higher default rates next year.
CLO Managers Gear Up for a Leveraged Buyout Comeback: CLO investors are betting that falling rates, easing regulation, and a rebound in M&A will drive a surge in leveraged financing in 2026, even as tight spreads squeeze current returns. JPMorgan estimates next year's deal flow could include roughly $80B in high-yield bonds and $225B in leveraged loans, with banks already underwriting $65B of LBO debt for 2026
Private Equity Moves Into Firehouse Software — and Prices Surge: Volunteer fire departments across the U.S. are facing sharp cost increases after private equity–backed firms consolidated the niche software market that manages incident reporting, scheduling, and equipment tracking. Vista-backed ESO now serves roughly 2/3rds of U.S. fire departments, but chiefs say acquisitions have been followed by product shutdowns, forced migrations, and annual fees jumping multiples higher
E.W. Scripps Rejects Sinclair's $622M Takeover Bid: Scripps' board unanimously turned down Sinclair's unsolicited $7-per-share offer, saying it undervalued the company despite Sinclair already owning an 8.2% stake. The rejection comes after Scripps adopted a poison pill and highlights growing tension as broadcasters seek scale to offset cord-cutting and weak ad markets
Luckin Coffee Weighs Bid for Nestlé's Blue Bottle: China's largest coffee chain is exploring a potential acquisition of the Nestle-backed brands as it looks to move upmarket and build a premium global brand, according to people familiar with the talks. Backed by Centurium Capital, Luckin is also evaluating other targets in China's specialty coffee space after passing on Coca-Cola's Costa Coffee
Medline shares soar on IPO: Shares closed at $41 on Wednesday, up 41% from the IPO price of $29. The medical supplies company raised $6.3B on Tuesday in the biggest IPO of the year, and now holds a market value of about $55B
White House to announce drug pricing deals: Novartis and Roche are nearing a drug pricing deal with the U.S. that is expected to be announced as soon as Friday. Other companies may also be included as drugmakers look to offer lower prices in exchange for relief from tariffs

M&A Transactions💭

Hunter Communications, provider of private fiber-optic network services, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for an undisclosed amount by Oak Hill Capital.

Vital Energy, an independent energy company, was acquired for $5.495B by Crescent Energy (NYS: CRGY). EV/Revenue was 2.9x. Houlihan Lokey advised on the sale.

TRC Companies, provider of consulting, engineering, and construction management services, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $3.3B by WSP Global (TSE: WSP). EV/EBITDA was 17.16x and EV/Revenue was 2.77x. Houlihan Lokey, AEC Advisors, Harris Williams, and UBS Group advised on the sale.

The Lion Brewery, operator of a brewery, Encore Consumer Capital's stake in the company was rolled into the continuation fund, Encore Consumer Capital Lion CF, from Encore Consumer Capital Fund III for $150.0M.

OneOncology, operator of a hospital and clinical network, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $5.0B by Cencora (NYS: COR).

Korea Environment Technology, provider of waste management and disposal services, has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired for KRW 700.0B by Gaw Capital Partners. EV/EBITDA was 18.7x and EV/Revenue was 8.95x. UBS Group advised on the sale.

Green Valley Pharmaceuticals, developer of pharmaceuticals, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for CNY 1.43B by Fosun Pharma (SHG: 600196). EV/Revenue was 20.99x.

Goldcast, developer of an AI powered business-to-business video campaign platform, was acquired for $300.0M by Cvent.

Fratelli Martini, producer of wines, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for EUR 220.0M by B.F. (MIL: BFG).

Foley Products, manufacturer of precast concrete plumbing products, was acquired for $1.84B by Commercial Metals (NYS: CMC). EV/Revenue was 25.59x. Evercore Group advised on the sale.

Allete, provides competitively-priced energy, was acquired for $6.053B by CPP Investments and Global Infrastructure Partners. EV/EBITDA was 12.95x and EV/Revenue was 4.04x. J.P. Morgan and Houlihan Lokey advised on the sale.

SeaCo, provider of shipping container leasing services, was acquired for $1.75B by Textainer Group Holdings. Deutsche Bank Securities advised on the sale.

A Portfolio of Two Cancer Drug Royalties was acquired for $315.0M by Royalty Pharma.

The Electronic Divsion of Ovivo was acquired by Ecolab (NYS: ECL) for CAD 2.4B. EV/Revenue was 4.81x.

Mawson Finland, a mineral exploration company, was acquired for $259.0M by First Nordic Metals (TSX: FNM).

The Fifth Avenue Property in NYC of Kering has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $1.5B by Ardian.

Inversiones ASPI, manufacturer of cement blocks, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for PEN 5.099B by Holcim (SWX: HOLN). EV/EBITDA was 9.77x.

Fortidia, provider of logistics, has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired for EUR 800.0M by BC Partners. Jefferies advised on the sale.

California Pizza Kitchen, operator of a casual dining restaurant, has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired for $300.0M by Aurify Brands, Consortium Brand Partners, Eldridge Industries, Convive Brands, and Bain Capital Credit. Piper Sandler advised on the sale.

Shaylink, provider of cloud services, was acquired for EUR 175.0M by Vodafone Group (LON: VOD).

Two Harbors Investment (NYS: TWO), a real estate investment trust, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $1.3B by UWM Holdings (NYS: UWMC). EV/Revenue was 3.29x. Houlihan Lokey advised on the sale.

WGNSTAR, provider of manufacturing and technical support, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired by ABM Industries (NYS: ABM) for approximately $275.0M.

The East Africa Business of Diageo (LON: DGE) was acquired for JPY 465.4B by Asahi Group Holdings (TKS: 2502).

Fenway Sports Group are selling Penguins to Chicago-based Hoffmann family for $1.7B.

Private Placement Transactions💭

Kredivo Group, developer of a digital credit platform, raised $100.0M of venture funding led by Mizuho Bank.

A Joint Venture Between Barings, Mubadala Investment Company and Massachusetts Mutual Life Insurance was formed for $500.0M. The JV provides real estate debt investment services.

Chai Discovery, developer of an AI based molecular interaction platform, raised $130.0M of Series B venture funding led by Oak HC/FT and General Catalyst.

RedotPay, developer of a digital asset payment infrastructure, raised $107.0M of Series B venture funding led by Goodwater Capital.

Databricks, developer of a data analytics platform, raised $4.0B of Series L venture funding led by Insight Partners, J.P. Morgan Growth Equity Partners, and Fidelity Management & Research Company at a pre-money valuation of $130.0M.

Ambros Therapeutics, operator of a therapeutics company, raised $154.0M through a combination of convertible debt and Series A-1, Series A-2 venture funding led by Enavate Sciences and RA Capital Management at a pre-money valuation of $96.0M.

MoEngage, developer of a marketing customer engagement platform, raised $280.0M of Series F venture funding led by ChrysCapital, Dragon Fund, Schroders, Goldman Sachs Growth Equity, and A91 Partners at a pre-money valuation of $862.98M.

Lovable, developer of an AI powered software development platform, is reportedly seeking venture funding from Accel, Khosla Ventures, and other undisclosed investors at an estimated post-money valuation of $6.6B.

Meme Cleanser 😆

Until next time!

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