Rabu, 17 Desember 2025

The Real Bubble Isn't Where You Think It Is

I don't look at bubbles from the top down. I look at them from the bottom up. It's all the pieces of crap that got pulled higher.

While everyone's losing their minds over Oracle cratering 40% from its September peaks, they're missing where the real carnage lives.

Sure, AI stocks are finally getting their reality check – Oracle's financing schemes blowing up, Broadcom bleeding 19% this month – but that's not where you make money. The edge is in all the garbage companies that got dragged along for the ride.

Goldman Sachs is up 160% over three years.

Really? Is Goldman 160% better off than 2022? What revolutionary breakthrough did they achieve – discovering the wheel?

Here's what kills me: I've got a buddy who runs data for Bank of America. Makes almost a million a year. You know what he does? "It's like being a pilot," he tells me. "You do nothing 98% of the time, then 2% there's a problem and you push a couple buttons." Million bucks a year for that.

And get this – McDonald's has better technology than Bank of America. I'm dead serious. McDonald's or Bank of America, where's the better technology? McDonald's, hands down.

The banks are running 20-25 year old systems legitimately. When's the last time McDonald's crashed when you tried to order a Big Mac?

But here's the thing about bubbles everyone misses: identifying them doesn't mean jack. I heard traders talking about the dot-com bubble in '98 and '99, and we didn't peak until 2000. Bubbles can last an extraordinarily long time.

When Nvidia Pulls Everything Higher

When Nvidia exploded, arbitrage pulled the entire basket. Caterpillar's up 170% over three years. Is Caterpillar 170% better off? Have you been to a construction site lately?

That's where the real bubble lives – not in the obvious stuff, but in the collateral damage. As AI darlings ran, systematic flows hoovered up everything. Index funds, momentum strategies, options market makers – they bought indiscriminately.

Look at what's happening right now. Tesla hits all-time highs while Oracle craters on $108 billion in net debt. That's not fundamental analysis – that's systematic rebalancing playing musical chairs.

The Systematic Dismantlement

Here's how this ends: we don't crash. We go down, rip back up, go down, rip back up. We systematically dismantle the marketplace.

That's what destroys retail – the false hope cycles. The massive down comes when everybody realizes the up ain't coming again.

But by then, the collateral damage stocks already gave back their artificial gains while the index tricks everyone into thinking they're safe.

Real volatility comes when everything starts moving together instead of rotating. Right now it's sell tech, buy financials. The music stops when those rotations break down and everything just falls.

Where the Real Money Gets Made

Stop staring at obvious bubble stocks. Everyone knows Oracle's financing is sketchy. The edge is identifying what got pulled higher that has no business being there.

Capital One's near all-time highs while consumer spending cracks.

US Bancorp's at multi-year highs while the economy wobbles. These aren't investments – they're systematic flow recipients.

When this rotation accelerates – and Oracle's breakdown is just the beginning – the collateral damage stocks will fall faster and further than the bubble darlings. They never deserved those levels in the first place.

The beautiful irony? While everyone panics about obvious bubble stocks, Tesla hits all-time highs. That's your systematic rebalancing right there – and most people never see it coming until their "safe" diversified portfolio gets systematically dismantled.

Join me live tomorrow where I'll be calling out these collateral damage plays as they happen.

To your success,

Don Kaufman

Tony built an on/off switch for the NASDAQ.

For 10 years, he's been decoding the NQ... finding the hidden structure beneath the chaos.

He calls them "Nuclear Codes."

They've helped thousands of traders pull consistent daily income from ONE ticker.

But the Golden Setup was just the beginning.

Turns out there are 10 high-probability setups hiding inside the NQ.

And now Tony built something brand new: The Matrix Key.

A custom indicator that shows you VISUALLY when to take the trade... and when to stand down.

No more guessing.
No more FOMO.
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We just did a full breakdown of the system.

Click here to watch the replay and see the Matrix Key in action

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