For thirty years, the backbone of the global economy has been buried underground. We dug trenches, laid fiber, and tethered ourselves to physical locations. That era is quietly coming to an end. | While investors obsess over AI chips and software, a far bigger shift is happening overhead. The constraints of terrestrial infrastructure—fiber costs and dead zones—are no longer just inconveniences; they are bottlenecks that threaten to choke the next wave of growth. |
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| Why Ground Networks Are Reaching Their Limits | Building fiber across remote terrain or politically fragmented regions remains expensive and slow. Towers can be damaged, require permits, and leave vast areas unreachable. For decades, these trade-offs were tolerable because most economic activity clustered in cities and along established routes. | That calculus no longer holds. | AI inference, autonomous systems, and real-time supply chains demand ubiquity, not selective coverage. The cost of downtime—whether in precision agriculture, maritime logistics, or emergency response—has risen sharply, exposing the structural limits of ground-based models. | The Satellite Shift: From Space Project to Network Layer | Low-Earth-orbit (LEO) satellite constellations address these constraints by changing the economics of deployment. Operating at altitudes between 300 and 600 kilometers, LEO systems deliver latency comparable to fiber: | | This makes them viable for latency-sensitive applications. Coverage is global by design, requiring no local permits or physical infrastructure on the ground. | According to data from Cloudflare, global internet traffic flowing through one major LEO network more than doubled in 2025, with user counts rising from four million to approximately eight million across more than 150 countries. | | | | The Race for Orbit Is Accelerating | Launch cadence has become the limiting factor, not geography. Competitive buildout is intensifying: | Amazon's Project Kuiper: Launched additional satellites in 2025, with dozens of flights contracted through 2029. SpaceSail: The China-backed entity announced plans to begin service in Brazil by mid-2026, targeting schools and hospitals via a partnership with Telebras. Direct-to-Cell: Services enabling standard smartphones to connect without towers are rolling out across Africa, with coverage expected to reach over 170 million people beginning in 2026.
| Overseas, Chinese satellite efforts backed by state and municipal funds have channelled nearly 6.7 billion yuan (~$933 million) into their own broadband constellations, underscoring the growing role of sovereign and corporate capital in global connectivity infrastructure. |
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|  | | | Presented by Brownstone Research | |
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| The Carrier Model Markets Are Starting to Notice | The business model underpinning these systems increasingly resembles utilities rather than tech platforms. Recurring subscription revenue, control of spectrum and routing, and infrastructure-like cash flows distinguish satellite networks from application-layer ventures. The global satellite communications market, valued at approximately $23 billion to $102 billion depending on scope, is projected to grow at double-digit rates through the early 2030s, driven by demand from IoT, defense, and enterprise customers. | Markets tend to value these assets differently — less for rapid growth, more for control, resilience, and long-duration demand. | Hardware supply chains reflect this shift. STMicroelectronics disclosed in December 2025 that it has shipped more than five billion radio-frequency antenna chips for one LEO network over the past decade, with volumes potentially doubling by 2027 as deployment accelerates. Satellite IoT connections, used for tracking cargo, monitoring equipment, and managing remote assets, are expanding at similar velocity, with the market projected to grow from $1.4 billion in 2024 to $3.5 billion by 2030. |
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| Conclusion | The most important infrastructure shifts rarely announce themselves loudly. By the time connectivity becomes visibly scarce, the network layer is already in place—above us, and largely unnoticed. |
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| | How did you find today's briefing? | |
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| | Written by Deniss Slinkins
Global Financial Journal |
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