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Just For You Dollar General's Turnaround Could Send the Stock Higher in 2026Submitted by Thomas Hughes. Date Posted: 12/18/2025. 
What You Need to Know- Dollar General is well-positioned to drive shareholder value in 2026 as its turnaround efforts gain momentum.
- Analyst trends are robust, providing lift to the market and pointing to fresh all-time highs and a complete market reversal.
- Tailwinds in 2025 will strengthen in 2026, providing potential for accelerating growth and outperformance.
Dollar General's (NYSE: DG) turnaround efforts are gaining traction, and analysts are taking notice. Recent activity includes multiple price-target raises and upgrades, culminating in an upgrade from JPMorgan Chase & Company. Analysts at the firm moved the stock to Overweight from Hold and issued a street-high target of $166. The analyst trends are solid: increased coverage, firmer sentiment, and an uptrending consensus price target that implies roughly 25% upside at the high end. Those trends began shifting in early 2025 and have strengthened toward year-end, helping reverse the stock's earlier weakness. How daily 'stock bets' hit 87% of the time
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JPMorgan expects Dollar General to benefit from tailwinds in 2025 that should strengthen in 2026. A "traffic trifecta" — gainfully employed Americans, middle-income shoppers seeking value, and high-income earners trading down — underpins store activity and revenue growth, supported by rising store counts and the expected effects of tax relief and lower interest rates. The bank notes that benefits from changes to tip and overtime tax rules should outweigh the impact of SNAP benefit adjustments, leaving lower-income consumers with more disposable income for the essentials found at Dollar General. Cash Flow and Capital Return Outlook Are Bullish for InvestorsImproving fundamentals are translating into stronger free cash flow after dividends, which could set the stage for Dollar General's first dividend increase in years. The company currently distributes about 35% of its earnings outlook, and given the Q3 results for fiscal 2026 (FY2026), management appears to have room to further reward shareholders. Dollar General's balance sheetshows a healthy position: cash is up, inventory is steady, assets are flat, and debt and total liabilities declined at the end of Q3. Long-term debt is about five times cash, less than one time equity, and equity rose roughly 11% year-over-year for the quarter. The dividend yields about 1.8% in December. Institutional investors also favor this retail stock, likely attracted by the dividend, cash-flow outlook, and capital-return prospects. MarketBeat data shows institutions own more than 90% of the shares, providing a solid support base that has been a net buyer each quarter this year. There has been some selling as investors take profits, but overall net activity remains bullish and is likely to stay supportive in the coming quarters. On the results front, the company outperformed on both the top and bottom lines, with especially strong bottom-line performance. A 2.5% increase in traffic coupled with flat average transaction values helped drive improvements in gross and operating margins, which management expects to continue. Guidance was also nudged higher, reinforcing positive sentiment while remaining deliberately cautious. Dollar General Advances to Confirm Bullish Stock Market ReversalDollar General's stock price stopped declining early in 2025 and has been rebounding since. December trading produced a decisive breakout, with shares closing above key resistance levels and the long-term moving average. DG looks poised to continue advancing in the coming weeks and could test the $160 area in early 2026. Key catalysts for 2026 include aggressive plans to expand and refresh the store base. The company is targeting 450 new U.S. stores, 10 in Mexico, and approximately 2,000 remodels. The primary questions are the pace of that rollout, the costs involved, and how quickly the benefits will materialize. Another potential catalyst is fourth-quarter outperformance: the consensus forecast calls for roughly 4% revenue growth with some margin compression.
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