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The Week Ahead Of Us 🔍 |
Welcome back! |
Well this is getting ugly. We've been talking about the dual threats of tariffs and the potential AI related cooldown for some time. Both headwinds came to a head on Friday - The S&P was down nearly 2% and the Nasdaq was down 2.7%. S&P 500 futures are down 63bps, with NASDAQ futures down 103bps as Trump is reportedly floating additional tariffs. |
Liberation Day, the day more tariffs start to go into effect, starts on Wednesday April 2nd. Even when we get there, it's hard to imagine we're anywhere close to a resolution on tariffs - it is unlikely the administration will ease off until material parts of their tariff goals are met. |
As we've been reiterating, the tariff uncertainty is going to impact consumer confidence, as well as business confidence and investment planning. This coupled with the withdrawal associated with drastically reducing government spending is going to create very meaningful volatility in 2Q. |
Here's a look at the quieter earnings results expected this week. |
Monday: Walgreens, Loar Holdings Thursday: Constellation Brands, Conagra Brands, Acuity, Lamb Weston Holdings
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Here's a look at economic data this week - Friday is the big day: |
Tuesday: Job openings (7.7MM) Wednesday: ADP employment (120K) Thursday: Initial jobless claims (226K), U.S. Trade deficit (-$123B) Friday: U.S. Employment report (140K), U.S. Unemployment rate (4.1%), U.S. Hourly wages (0.3% m/m, 3.9% y/y)
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Earnings Corner 📜 |
Trending Down 📉 |
Lululemon (LULU): Lululemon reported earnings that beat estimates, but poor 2025 guidance saw the stock get hammered after Thursday's close. Mgmt. warned that consumers are spending less due to uncertainty about inflation and the economy. Lululemon projected FY 2025 revenue of $11.15B-$11.3B (vs. $11.31B expected) and EPS of $14.95-$15.15 (vs. $15.31 expected). Mgmt. also noted concerns over Trump's tariffs, but said the Canada-based company expects a minimal hit to profits. The stock was down 14.2% |
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Today's Headlines 🍿 |
xAI is acquiring X. On Friday, Elon Musk shared that he's combining his two companies. While the artificial intelligence startup is pegged at $80B, the social network earned a $33B valuation ($45B less $12B of debt), down from the $44B Musk paid for it in 2022. Musk generally prefers simplicity in his empire - with this being somewhat reminiscent of when Tesla acquired Solar City Trump's latest moves: The President said he "couldn't care less" if foreign automakers raised prices due to his proposed 25% tariffs, arguing that it would push consumers toward American-made cars; he also dismissed concerns over national security adviser Michael Waltz's Signal chat leak, calling it "fake news" and reiterated his ambition to annex Greenland The WSJ reported a few hours ago that Trump is evaluating an across the board hike of up to 20% on Wednesday for 25+ countries - this doesn't include additional retaliatory tariffs Trump hasn't ruled out a 3rd term, noting there are methods for doing so, and reiterating his stance by saying "I'm not joking….but it is far too early to think about it" Meanwhile, Trump is threatening Russia with potential oil penalties, saying he is "very angry" at Putin due to the Russian leader's slowness in negotiating a peace deal with Ukraine. This would mean that if you buy oil from Russia there would be a 25%-50% tariff applied
CoreWeave's IPO stumbles. The Nvidia-backed AI infrastructure firm debuted at $23B (fully diluted), falling 3% short of its offering target. While there are idiosyncratic issues with the Company regarding customer concentration and the depreciation of their products, the disappointment could slow down the expected post-Trump wave of IPOs and dampen enthusiasm around AI. Despite getting done, the investor base concentration, led by Nvidia's anchor investment seems a bit shaky 👇️
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 | Macro Twain @macrotwain |  |
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I think what he meant to say, is "without Nvidia, I wouldn't have a business" Shot: Coreweave CEO: "W/o Nvidia anchor, IPO wouldn't have closed" Chaser: Half of CoreWeave's $1.5b IPO went to 3 largest investors in the deal The top 15 IPO investors took 90% of the shares | | | 4:05 PM • Mar 28, 2025 | | | | | | 3 Likes 0 Retweets | 2 Replies |
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Zuck is coming in from the coast. Meta is building a massive $10B AI data center in Holly Ridge, Louisiana, as part of a broader trend of tech companies expanding into rural areas with access to land, natural gas, and power infrastructure Opportunity abound says Victor Khosla. The founder of Strategic Value Partners sees one of the most promising environments for opportunistic credit investors in the past 10 years. Khosla said debt markets are facing "reckoning" and is hiring to capitalize on the changing investing environment. SVP has recently been acquiring distressed European real estate Pimco, AllianceBernstein and TCW are cashing in. The three asset managers bought bonds ditched by multi-strategy hedge funds and were quickly rewarded. Market volatility had strained HFs' ability to hold onto risky corporates. Names likely Hertz and New Fortress Energy quickly reversed recent selloffs Buy more bullets Nicolai! Norway's opposition parties are calling for an end to the country's ban on its $1.8T SWF investing in defense companies like Boeing, Lockheed Martin, and Airbus, arguing that it is inconsistent with Norway's reliance on NATO's security umbrella. The fund has been restricted from investing in companies involved in nuclear or cluster weapons since the early 2000s, but growing security concerns and increased military spending in Europe have led to calls for change You get a pardon … and you get a pardon! Trevor Milton, the former disgraced CEO of Nikola, was pardoned by President Trump. Milton was convicted last year of defrauding investors. He also donated $1.8mm to Trump's re-election campaign in October Convicted of conspiracy to commit securities and wire fraud and of identity theft, ex-CEO of Ozy Media Carlos Watson had his sentence commuted. Ozy Media, the company, also saw his sentence waived by the President We'll see if this means former Frank CEO Charlie Javice, who was just found guilty of defrauding JPMorgan, will be pardoned as well
James Gorman teams up with General Atlantic. Morgan Stanley's ex-CEO and Disney chair is joining the PE shop as a strategic advisor as it prepare for an IPO. The firm is looking to diversify beyond its bread and butter of high-growth tech investments Manning millions: Peyton Manning sold a 10% stake in Omaha Productions, his media arm, at a $750mm valuation. Best known for its ESPN hit "ManningCast," The Hall of Famer's production company raised $10mm at a $400mm valuation just last year Tim Cook wants to be your doctor. Apple is making its biggest push into health care with an AI-powered doctor service integrated into a revamped Health app, alongside ongoing efforts in noninvasive glucose monitoring and other medical innovations Warner Bros could replace its film studio heads. CEO David Zaslav is reportedly meeting with candidates to replace film studio heads Michael De Luca and Pamela Abdy. This comes after big misses like Joker 2 and Mickey 17 Beijing backs its banks. China's government is injecting $72B into its four largest state-owned banks—Bank of China, Bank of Communications, Postal Savings Bank of China, and China Construction Bank—to strengthen their capital and boost lending amid economic challenges. This move aims to address weak consumer spending, deflation risks, and a prolonged property market slump The Miami real estate boom continues. North Bay Road in Miami Beach has become one of the country's wealthiest and most exclusive streets, with over $1.7B in waterfront properties and a surge in high-value transactions since the pandemic. Homeowners, including business moguls and celebrities, are seeing skyrocketing property values, with many refusing to sell despite offers exceeding $100mm Explaining the Torpedo Bat controversy: We normally don't do Sports talk - but the New York Yankees bringing out Torpedo Bats is resulting in the Yanks putting up dominant, home-run heavy performances (they beat the Brewers 20-9 and 12-3). But the bats are already facing calls to be banned (if opponents don't start copying the strategy). While not breaking MLB rules, these bats are designed to add more mass to "the sweet spot" of where you want to hit the ball
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M&A Transactions💭 |
The Reject Shop (ASX: TRS), a discount variety retailer, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $163.08M by Dollarama (TSE: DOL). EV/EBITDA was 1.94x and EV/Revenue was 0.29x. |
The Alpina Gstaad, operator of luxury accommodations and amenities, was acquired for $400.0M by an undisclosed buyer. |
Terrestrial Energy, developer of a reactor power plant technology, was acquired through a reverse merger by HCM II Acquisition for $230.0M. The combined entity trades on the NASDAQ stock exchange under the ticker symbol IMSR. |
The Indian Wind Turbine Business Division of Siemens Gamesa Renewable Energy has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired for $1.0B by TPG, Mr. Vellayan Subbiah, and Mr. Prashant Jain. Barclays advised on the sale. |
OfferFit, developer of an AI-based self-learning decision engine, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $325.0M by Braze (NAS: BRZE). Atlas Technology Group advised on the sale. |
A Portfolio of Prime Real Estate Assets of Kering, located in Paris, France, was acquired for $899.55M by Ardian. The transaction values the assets at an estimated $1.5B. Lazard advised on the sale. |
Hillandale Farms, producer of eggs, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for $1.1B by Granja Faria (NVMF: EGGY3). |
efm Logistics, provider of integrated supply chain and distribution solutions, was acquired for $629.47M by Pacific Equity Partners. The transaction values the company at $715.07M. Bank of America advised on the sale. |
Ayana Renewable Power, operator of an energy generation company, was acquired for $719.64M by ONGC NTPC Green. Standard Chartered advised on the sale. |
xAI has acquired X (Formerly Known as Twitter) in a deal that values the social media platform at $33.0B in an all-stock deal. The deal values xAI at $80.0B. |
Private Placement Transactions💭 |
Supira Medical, developer of a percutaneous ventricular assist device, raised $120.0M of Series E venture funding in a deal led by Novo Holdings and Qatar Investment Authority. |
Island, developer of an enterprise browser, raised $250.0M of Series E venture funding led by Coatue Management at a pre-money valuation of $4.55B. |
European Distribution Centre, provider of construction services in Grace-Hollogne, Belgium, was formed as a joint venture between Montea and Weerts Group for $375.82M. The purpose of the joint venture is to develop a new distribution center. |
Also, developer of an integrated technology platform, raised $105.0M of venture funding led by Eclipse Ventures. |
Marvel Fusion, developer of a laser-based nuclear fusion reactor, raised $121.23M of Series B venture funding led by HV Capital. |
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Odds of the Day 🍒 |
Kalshi traders are pricing in a 64% chance of unemployment above 4.1% |
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*New Traders on Kalshi receive a $20 bonus of trading credit when depositing $100+ with the code "HYH". |
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Noteworthy Chart 🧭 |
Cathie Wood vs. Warren Buffett isn't a close contest…. |
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Meme Cleanser 😆 |
 | junkbondinvestor @junkbondinvest | |
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Software credit analyst realizing that "change in deferred revenue" is now a negative add back to EBITDA: | |  | | | 10:05 PM • Mar 29, 2025 | | | | | | 488 Likes 18 Retweets | 14 Replies |
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 | Boring_Business @BoringBiz_ | |
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MBA Associates hardcoding a plug to make the balance sheet balance | |  | | | 1:23 PM • Mar 29, 2025 | | | | | | 480 Likes 17 Retweets | 13 Replies |
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Obviously, none of this constitutes financial or investment advice. *Today's Odds of the Day is in paid partnership with Kalshi Inc. |
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