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Good morning, Traders… |
This morning, I'm live from Sundance, Utah - taking this morning show on the road. |
Yep, I got up well before my usual time… |
We'll see if we can get a good view of the mountains. |
Because we have to get moving in this critical, make-or-break week for the markets. As I noted Saturday, we've got tariffs, a key jobs report, and an early few warnings coming in earnings reports from names like Conagra (CAG) and Lamb Weston (LW). |
But first things first… |
Here's what's on tap today… |
Is Oil Going to Breakdown? |
This chart speaks volumes to the state of the oil market. |
Now… real quick: Commodity Trading Advisers (CTAs) are professionals who manage money by trading futures and options. They're trying to make money from price changes in things like oil or wheat. |
Right now, they're betting that oil prices will go down. |
In fact, they're making the biggest bet that oil will go down since 2014. We use the term "Net short" to signal that their sell bets (expecting lower prices) outweigh their buy bets. |
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My mother said two nights ago at dinner - when I was talking about monetary policy with another bar patron - that she has no idea what I'm talking about… |
So… Mom… I'm just saying that a lot of smart investors are betting oil prices will fall — more than we've seen in 10 years. |
And it's important that we consider the date 2014: Because that was when the oil prices crashed, and nearly sank tons of oil prices. That year, oil prices collapsed from about $100 per barrel to roughly $50 just a year later. |
Now… I tell you all this because I'm going to give you a trade to take part in these bets against oil prices. But there are VERY SPECIFIC conditions… I want to ensure that you're taking little risk… but that you have MASSIVE upside in the trade. I'll lay it out at 8:45… |
One More Time For People in the Back |
I turned on the Usual Suspects before takeoff yesterday. The very second that Benecio Del Toro says "Can you hear me in the back," I fell asleep. |
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I slept through explosions and shouting for 75 minutes. |
And woke up to one of the best ending in the history of screenplays. |
Today's the type of day… we have to repeat ourselves to the people in the back. |
If you are ignoring our momentum signal, you're doing so at your own peril. We went positive for a very short time on Wednesday, only to see capital flow out of the market. |
That was called a Rug Pull. In a low-volume environment, we rolled right over… |
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Now, with so much on tap this week, we could see even more selling pressure this week. I'm telling you, there's something bigger happening, and the big money - the billionaires - are already making their moves. I'll tell you how you can take advantage and join these big money bets when we do our Tune Up. |
The State of Momentum |
Of course, you know that our signal is negative on the S&P 500. Money is rotating as the quarter starts… and we're getting ready for tariffs, drawdowns in bank accounts and money markets during tax season, and a jobs report that could be quite jarring… |
Stocks breaking down… right now… Intel Corporation (INTC) and NRG Energy (NRG) as they crack under their 20-day SMA. You can see that Intel stock's found a lot of support at the $19 level… which is great news if you're a trader. |
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They join a list of 37 names under pressure right now. |
On the positive side… gulp… ONE. Universal Health Services (UHS). |
I'll walk you through an Intel trade this morning… I think you'll love it. |
All right… we got two trades coming today… are you ready? |
Join me at 8:45 EST (which is 6:45 for me… I hate having to say that…) |
See you soon. |
Stay positive, |
Garrett Baldwin |
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