| A GREY SWAN PUBLICATION | Monday March 31, 2025 | Swan Dive — March 31, 2025
"Canada's long-held relationship of cooperation and economic integration with the United States is over." — Prime Minister Mark Carney, March 29, 2025
Dear Reader,
That wasn't a hot mic moment. That was the sitting Prime Minister of Canada delivering a public obituary for a geopolitical marriage that lasted longer than most of our readers have been alive. If you're still wondering whether Trump's second term is a realignment or just a redux — there's your answer.
Trade, diplomacy, energy, immigration — it's all on the table. Tariffs are just the blunt instrument. The real work is happening in the shadows, where policy meets power and old alliances get cleared like overgrowth in a scorched orchard.
The institutions that defined the last century are cracking. Trump's crew knows it. They're hellbent on rewriting the rulebook — reasserting U.S. sovereignty before our sclerotic, debt-riddled system collapses under its own weight. What's at stake? Your money. Your future. A century of American drift meets its reckoning. I need your brain on this.
Time is of the essence. AI and quantum tech are racing ahead. The bureaucracies of the 20th century can't keep up. Either we rebuild fast — or the whole framework falls. And with it, the Bill of Rights itself.
Free speech has been throttled by both platform censorship and backroom policy. Privacy, once sacred, has been handed over wholesale to surveillance capitalists. The due process gets smothered and stymied by activist court judges, and the Tenth Amendment — states' rights — is a quaint historical reference, ignored entirely by the imperial blob in D.C.
That's why we're launching Swan Dive — to track the crumbling scaffolding of the old world and chart the opportunities rising from the rubble. For each issue, we'll cut through the "news."
This morning:
Moody's cracks the ceiling 
The last of the three rating agencies maintaining an AAA rating on U.S. sovereign debt issued a warning: The outlook is now negative. The rationale? Ballooning deficits, rising interest costs, and zero political will to course-correct. The credibility of the dollar as the world's reserve currency is officially on borrowed time.
Musk consolidates control 
Elon's AI outfit, xAI, has swallowed the artist formerly known as Twitter. The $45B all-stock merger rolls social media, AI, and "free speech" into one imperial tech stack. The platform now feeds directly into xAI's large language model. In other words: the training wheels are off.
Putin's Greenland Warning 
In remarks leaked from a closed-door Kremlin briefing, Putin cautioned his generals to take Trump seriously "on everything—even Greenland." It's unclear whether he was joking. What is clear: global power brokers believe Trump's reelection means sovereign assets are back on the auction block. Which brings us to…
The Mar-a-Lago Accord 
The Trump camp is floating a bilateral framework with key energy states — Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar — that would peg energy exports to a new form of the U.S. digital dollar. The deal, still unofficial, would bypass Brussels, Davos, and the IMF entirely. The aim? Reset the world order — with America back at the center.
Trump's second term is already 70 days old. He's wasted no time rolling out sweeping changes under a bold, if polarizing, vision for American renewal.
By our reckoning, he has 461 days until July 4, 2026 — the 250th anniversary of American independence, and not coincidentally, the sunset of the Defense of Government Efficiency (DOGE) mandate pushed through in the lame duck window last year. That's the runway for restructuring. 125 days after that, we hit the 2026 midterms.
If voters are seeing real gains — lower prices, energy security, rising wages, new jobs — they might stay the course.
But if the storm gets choppy or the narrative slips, they'll do what American voters always do: vote the bastards out. And just like that, Trump's so-called "Golden Age" for America becomes a lot harder to pass through a divided Congress with an eye on 2028.
If that happens, all of Trump's efforts to realign American interests globally and rebuild the economy domestically will be left at the blueprint stage — cement footers hardening at the bottom of a massive political excavation, rebar skyscrapers without glass walls rusting beneath a forest of idle cranes.
The great reconstruction will stall mid-swing, caught between ambition and backlash, vision and vote count.
We'll keep tracking the scaffolding — steel by steel.
Addison
P.S. There will be trading ideas, too. As one of our researchers wrote this morning:
At this moment, a wave of insane people, paid protestors, and clueless politicians are attacking Musk and Tesla, which has created tremendous volatility. But with each passing day, as Trump's tariffs increase, it's clear to me that Tesla will come out on top. And its stock could outperform its peers by a wide margin.
As always, your cheerful reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.)
How did we get here? Find out in these riveting reads: Demise of the Dollar, Financial Reckoning Day, and Empire of Debt — all three books are now available in their third post-pandemic editions. You might enjoy one or all three. 
(Or… simply pre-order Empire of Debt: We Came, We Saw, We Borrowed, now available at Amazon and Barnes & Noble or if you prefer one of these sites: Bookshop.org, Books-A-Million or Target.)
Please send your comments, reactions, opprobrium, vitriol and praise to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com |
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