May 17, 2026 | Read online

The Week Ahead - May 17th

Treasury Yields Increased Towards 4.6%, Oil Climbs Over $109 Per Barrel.

The Week Ahead Of Us 🔍

Welcome back! After a historic run that saw the Dow cross 50,000 and the S&P 500 hit a fresh all-time high of 7,501 on Thursday, macro reality caught up to Wall Street on Friday. Driven by sticky inflation indicators, headlined by a hot 3.8% headline CPI and a staggering 6.0% wholesale PPI surge, bond yields spiked across the board, with the 10-year Treasury soaring to 4.60%. The sudden pressure forced a sharp tech rotation, dragging the S&P 500 down 1.2% and the Nasdaq lower, though heavy institutional options positioning and leveraged ETF flows managed to preserve the S&P’s seven-week winning streak. Heading into the overnight session, equity futures are trading flat to slightly defensive as traders aggressively recalibrate expectations from federal rate cuts to a potential rate hike later this year.

Today’s newsletter is in partnership with 9fin.

Let’s get into it.

Here’s a look at earnings this week.

Monday: Baidu, Ryanair
Tuesday: Home Depot, Keysight Technologies, KE Holdings, Toll Brothers, CAVA, Amer Sports
Wednesday: NVIDIA, Analog Devices, Lowe’s, TJX, Intuit, Target, Hasbro, e.l.f. Beauty, VF Corp
Thursday: Walmart, Deere & Company, Ross Stores, Workday, Zoom, Deckers Outdoor, Webull, Take-Two Interactive, NetEase
Friday: BJ's Wholesale, Booz Allen

Here’s a look at economic data this week (estimates are in quotations).

Tuesday: Pending home sales (1.5%)
Wednesday: Minutes of Fed's May FOMC meeting
Thursday: Initial jobless claims (210,000), Housing starts (1.40M), Building permits (1.38M), Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey (18.0), S&P flash U.S. services PMI (51.5), S&P flash U.S. manufacturing PMI (53.8)
Friday: Consumer sentiment final (48.2), U.S. leading economic indicators (-0.2%)

Q1 2026 LME update — are LMEs getting… polite?

Q1 2026 is in the books, and the LME market is shifting shape.

Eleven deals crossed the line — and aggressive uptiers and drop-downs are retreating in favor of more consensual amend and extend, pro rata or debt-to-equity features. Sponsors are loosening their grip on equity. Lenders are banding together fast: 15 co-ops signed in Q1, against 25 across all of 2025.

But the calm is relative. $868bn of dollar-denominated debt is coming due through 2028, 54 borrowers with $1bn+ facilities are already indicated below 90, and nearly 93% of companies that close a non-consensual pro rata LME default, restructure, or file for bankruptcy within three years.

Laurie Tomassian breaks down every Q1 LME in 9fin's exclusive:

Q1 2026 LME Update

On The Move 📈 📉

Intel $INTC ( ▼ 6.18% ) () retreated to $108 on Friday’s chip selloff, trimming a 214% YTD gain. Mizuho raised its Intel price target to $124 this week on AI server demand.
Nvidia $NVDA ( ▼ 4.42% ) () slid to $226 ahead of Wednesday’s earnings report, with Nvidia still up 26% YTD. Wells Fargo and BofA hold price targets in the $315 to $320 range.
Figma $FIG ( ▲ 13.24% ) () surged to $20 after a Q1 earnings beat with revenue up 46% YoY to $333M and raised full year guidance. Figma’s collaborative design platform is gaining traction as AI adoption accelerates.

IPO Roundup 📍

Erock, the Houston-based modular power systems manufacturer backed by Energy Impact Partners, has filed for an IPO amid a surge in data center power demand. The company posted $31.7 million in Q1 revenue but saw losses widen to $18 million as it scales its natural gas distributed generation platform across 400 sites.
SpaceX is expected to file publicly for its IPO as soon as Wednesday, with shares set to begin trading under the ticker "SPCX" on June 12. Elon Musk’s rocket, satellite, and AI company is seeking to raise up to $75 billion at a $2 trillion valuation, which would mark the largest IPO in history. Bank of America, Citi, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Morgan Stanley are leading the offering.
Forbright, the Chevy Chase-based middle-market lender and digital consumer bank led by former U.S. Representative John Delaney, has filed for an IPO. The company reported $77.5 million in Q1 revenue and grew total deposits to $7.14 billion, up from $5.76 billion over the same period last year. Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Barclays are leading the deal.

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Today’s Headlines 📖🍿

Treasury Yields Rise: U.S. Treasury yields increased toward 4.6% on Friday, driven by persistent inflation concerns and a shift in market expectations toward a prolonged period of higher interest rates.
The Strait of Hormuz Closure Drives Up Yields: Oil prices climbed above $109 per barrel for ICE Brent following reports that the Strait of Hormuz remains shut and domestic political patience with the ongoing Iran conflict is thinning. The commodity price shock has directly fueled a global bond selloff, prompting traders to construct hedging bets around a potential Federal Reserve interest rate hike later in 2026.
Trump-Xi Summit Concludes Without Energy Breakthrough: President Trump's highly anticipated two-day summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing concluded without a concrete agreement to pressure Iran into reopening vital shipping lanes. The lack of an energy resolution served as the primary catalyst for Friday's 1.36% tech-led selloff.
Strong Domestic Data Complicates Rate Outlook: Despite the geopolitical friction, the U.S. macro economy showed unexpected resilience. Fresh economic data indicated that industrial production beat consensus estimates last month, while manufacturing activity in New York State expanded at its fastest rate in months—further strengthening the higher-for-longer interest rate thesis.
White House Releases President Trump’s Q1 Financial Disclosures: A 100-page document filed with the U.S. Office of Government Ethics revealed that President Trump or his personal asset managers executed more than 3,700 individual trades during the first quarter of 2026. Totaling tens of millions of dollars, the transactions included position blocks of at least $1 million each in Nvidia, Microsoft, Oracle, Costco, and Boeing.
Hyperscalers Outpace Traditional Financial Issuers in Corporate Debt: Institutional credit desk data indicates that top tech infrastructure players, primarily Amazon, Meta, Alphabet, and Oracle, are fundamentally shifting the weight of the U.S. investment-grade bond index. Driven by a projected $700 billion in combined 2026 AI infrastructure capital expenditures, tech bond issuance is on track to eclipse major banking institutions as the index's dominant debt issuers.
Boutique Bank Lincoln International Files for New York IPO: Moving past broader macroeconomic friction, Chicago-based boutique investment firm Lincoln International announced a target valuation of $2 billion for its upcoming listing on the NYSE under the ticker "LCLN." The offering seeks to raise up to $421 million, marking one of the largest independent investment bank IPOs in nearly two decades.
BlackRock Eyes $5B-$10B SpaceX IPO Anchor: The asset manager is weighing a cornerstone position from its $536 billion active book in what would be the largest IPO in history. SpaceX is targeting a $75 billion capital raise at a $1.75 trillion valuation, with a Nasdaq listing scheduled for June 12.
Leopold Aschenbrenner’s Situational Awareness fund files Q1 13F: The ex-OpenAI researcher’s AGI-focused hedge fund, which scaled from $225 million to $5.5 billion in equity exposure, disclosed its Q1 holdings on Friday. Its top positions remain heavily anchored in AI infrastructure providers, including Bloom Energy, SanDisk, and Coherent.
Virginia Communities Push Back on Data Center Sprawl: Blackstone-backed QTS and several anonymous developers are acquiring residential land near the Manassas Battlefield for data center developments, with prices reaching up to $1 million+ per acre amid local allegations of conflicts of interest. Although Virginia’s Court of Appeals halted the Digital Gateway project in March, larger land assemblages are already underway.

M&A Transactions💭

Enhabit Home Health & Hospice, provides home health and hospice services, was acquired for $1.21B by Kinderhook Industries. EV/EBITDA was 24.3x and EV/Revenue was 1.14x. Goldman Sachs advised on the sale.

Apellis Pharmaceuticals, a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company, was acquired for $5.72B by Biogen (NAS: BIIB). EV/EBITDA was 34.35x and EV/Revenue was 5.18x. Evercore Group advised on the sale.

Societe Generale Cameroun, provider of banking services, was acquired for $231.0M by The Goverment of Cameroon.

World Freight Company International, operator of a general sales and services agent, has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired for EUR 1.2B by Brookfield Asset Management. Deutsche Bank advised on the sale.

TRI Pointe Homes, an American construction company, was acquired for $5.34B by Sumitomo Forestry (TKS: 1991). EV/EBITDA was 18.81x and EV/Revenue was 1.65x. Moelis & Company advised on the sale.

MERMEC Group, manufacturer of high-tech railway infrastructure, has reached a definitive agreement to be acquired for EUR 1.0B by Siemens Mobility. EV/Revenue was 2.42x.

Private Placement Transactions💭

Zensi, developer of an IoT-based smart metering and resource management platform, raised $560.0M of venture funding from Abastible and other undisclosed investors.

Restructuring Updates 💭

Rite Aid

Type: Chapter 11 (second filing in two years)
Debt: Assets and liabilities both estimated between $1B–$10B
What happened: Rite Aid continued its Chapter 11 wind-down and asset sales process after filing May 5, including plans to sell pharmacy assets and close or auction remaining stores.
Scale signal: ~1,200 remaining pharmacy locations affected; among the largest U.S. retail bankruptcies currently active.

First Brands Group (auto parts supplier)

Type: Chapter 11 / possible forced liquidation
Debt: Administrative expenses alone estimated up to ~$223M unpaid; professional fees >$245M.
What happened: The U.S. Trustee moved to convert the case into a trustee-led liquidation or dismiss it entirely, arguing the company has “no realistic prospect for reorganization.”
Scale signal: Major automotive supplier with nationwide OEM and aftermarket exposure facing potential collapse of restructuring efforts.

Spirit Airlines

Type: Chapter 11 liquidation / wind-down
Debt: Multi-billion-dollar restructuring and aircraft obligations
What happened: Liquidation proceedings advanced further, with advisory fees surpassing $80M as the company continued asset sales and operational wind-down.
Scale signal: ~17,000 employees impacted and more than 100 aircraft tied to liquidation process.

Restructuring Rumors💭

QVC Group

Type: Ongoing restructuring conflict / Chapter 11 stress
Debt: ~$6B debt restructuring underway
What happened: Preferred shareholders formally challenged the restructuring, claiming exclusion from negotiations and disputing ownership rights tied to Cornerstone assets.
Scale signal: One of the largest consumer/media restructurings of 2026 spanning QVC, HSN, and Cornerstone brands.

Saks Global (Saks / Neiman Marcus)

Type: Ongoing Chapter 11 restructuring stress
Debt: ~$3.4B+
What happened: Store closures and additional layoffs accelerated as restructuring efforts deepened.
Scale signal: One of the largest active luxury retail restructurings in North America.

FAT Brands

Type: Distressed restructuring / operational deterioration
Debt: ~$1B+ restructuring burden at parent level
What happened: Fallout from the FAT Brands bankruptcy continued, including closures tied to Smokey Bones and pressure across multiple restaurant banners.
Scale signal: Multi-brand restaurant franchisor with nationwide exposure across casual dining and quick service chains.

Odds of the Day 🍒

Polymarket traders are pricing in a 4% chance of Kevin Warsh cutting rates at his first Fed meeting.

Noteworthy Chart 🧭

Wool Spot Price

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