Deadline For Iran Tonight At 8:00 PM ET In FocusStocks closed higher yesterday with all of the major indexes in the green. For those keeping track, all of the indexes remain in pullback territory (down -5% to -9.99% from their high-close). But the small-cap Russell 2000 and mid-cap S&P 400 are back in positive territory for the year, with YTD gains of 2.37% and 3.58% respectively. And the other indexes are not far behind with the Dow trailing by -2.90%, the S&P 500 down by -3.41%, and the Nasdaq down by -5.36% YTD. Optimism for an end to hostilities in the Middle East have taken markets off their worst levels. Despite threats from both sides of increased escalation, "discussions are ongoing." With the deadline for a peace agreement (or a ceasefire), or at least a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz arriving tonight at 8:00 PM ET, we will soon find out if an end to the conflict comes sooner rather than later. Either way, whether it's thru a peace agreement, or a cessation of attacks after the U.S. meets all of its objectives, the war does appear to be closer to the end. While Middle East headlines continue to dominate the news, last Friday's better-than-expected Employment Situation report also earned its headline status. And yesterday was the first day the market had to react to it. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) showed nonfarm payrolls for March rose significantly more than expected with a headline print of 178,000 new jobs (186,000 in the private sector and -8,000 in the public sector), vs. the consensus for just 51,000 new jobs (56K in private and -5K public). And the unemployment rate dipped to 4.3% vs. last month's 4.4% and views for the same. A sharp increase that shows the resiliency of the economy. And the markets cheered the news yesterday. In other news, yesterday's ISM Services Index slipped to 54.0 for March vs. last month's 56.1 and views for 54.7. Today we'll get Durable Goods Orders, and Consumer Credit. And we'll hear from Fed policymakers Austan Goolsbee and Philip Jefferson as they speak at their respective engagement throughout the day. But the reports the market is really waiting for is Wednesday's FOMC Minutes from March's Fed meeting; Thursday's third and final GDP report (the second estimate was slashed to 0.7% from the first estimate of 1.4%); and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index (which is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge). And then Friday's Consumer Price Index (CPI) retail inflation report. It'll be a busy week this week. Even though the decision on Iran will factor in heavily this week, the aforementioned items will also impact the market. In the meantime, the market is coming off of a positive up week last week. Has already started this week on a strong note. And we'll see if the market can build on those gains. We'll also see if market strategist Ed Yardeni's call that the S&P 500 put in a market bottom on March 30th continues to hold true. See you tomorrow, Kevin Matras
Executive Vice President, Zacks Investment Research |
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