Right now, a million metric tons of fertilizer is sitting in the Persian Gulf. It can't move. The ships are stuck. | That number matters to you. I'll tell you why in a second. | American farmers are placing their fertilizer orders this week. Not next month. This week. April and May planting waits for no one, and the inputs you order now determine what goes in the ground. There is no pause button on spring. | I can't stop thinking about this. Because the timing is brutal. The Gulf supplies 44% of the world's sulfur. Sulfur goes into phosphate fertilizer. Phosphate goes on corn. And corn, unlike soybeans, needs heavy nitrogen too. Farmers are already doing the math in their heads or on their kitchen tables and the math is ugly. Corn costs $213 more per acre to lose right now. Soybeans cost $139 more per acre to lose. Urea prices jumped 32% in a single week. | So they're shifting to soybeans. | They're Redefining This $29B Market All Over Again | | When Redbox shrunk the DVD-rental store, they helped establish the $29B market for automated kiosks. | That market's expected to grow 2X+ by 2033. So when the Redbox execs behind 10X revenue growth left to build Automated Retail Technologies, investors noticed. | Instead of movies, their Just Baked™ automated robotic kiosks serve customers' favorite meals in seconds, 24/7. That's why they've already partnered with the three largest foodservice providers in the world. | And the 800 units deployed currently only scratches the surface of their growth plans. With 400 more units ready for immediate deployment, 340,000+ additional targeted locations, and a leadership team that knows exactly what it takes to scale, ART is perfectly positioned. | Join this proven team as an early-stage ART shareholder and unlock up to 15% bonus stock until March 25. | | I get it. If I were a farmer, I'd shift too. The USDA already projects corn planting drops 4.8 million acres this year. Soybeans pick up 3.8 million acres. That swap sounds like a farming story. It's not. It's a grocery story. And the bill lands at your door in early 2027. | Here's what worries me. This isn't some forecaster's theory. Fertilizer shocks show up in food prices 9 to 12 months later. That's history. Every time. The corn that doesn't get planted this spring isn't in the cereal box next winter. Less corn means higher feed costs for beef, pork, and poultry. Higher feed costs mean higher prices at the checkout. Wolfe Research puts the likely hit at roughly 2 extra percentage points of food-at-home inflation. On top of prices that were already rising faster in 2026 than the two years before it. | I don't think most people realize the Iran deal doesn't fix this. Even if a deal closes this week and nobody knows if it will the fertilizer still has to move. The ships still have to clear the Gulf. The product still has to cross an ocean. And the farmer in Iowa or Indiana has already made his call. He planted what penciled out. He ordered what was available. The decision is done. | Nobody knows exactly how high grocery prices go. I won't pretend I do. But here's the number I keep coming back to: one million metric tons. Stuck. Right now. During the one week it mattered most. | — Lauren
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