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Mysterious Figures Make Fortune on Trump Announcement |
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Dear reader, |
Yesterday morning at 7:04 ET… before the market opened… President Trump announced that the United States and Iran were locked in "productive conversations" to conclude the conflict. |
Some 15 minutes before the president's announcement, highly fortunate traders with fantastic timing — or highly informed traders with fantastic contacts — placed wagers on lower oil prices. |
Oil prices retreated following the president's announcement. And the wagers delivered these lucky dogs a $580 million windfall. |
Reports The Financial Times: |
Traders made bets worth half a billion dollars in the oil market about 15 minutes before Donald Trump's post touting "productive" talks with Iran sent the price of crude tumbling and ignited volatility in other assets. |
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Roughly 6,200 Brent and West Texas Intermediate futures contracts changed hands between 6.49am and 6.50am New York time on Monday, just a quarter of an hour ahead of the US president's post on Truth Social that there had in recent days been "productive conversations" with Tehran to end the war in Iran. |
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The notional value of those trades was $580mn, according to FT calculations based on Bloomberg data… It was not known whether one entity or several entities were behind Monday's trades. |
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Insider Trading? |
$580 million is plenty handsome. Do you sniff a rat? |
The Financial Times cites one portfolio manager who does: |
My gut from watching markets for the last 25 years is that this is really abnormal. It's Monday morning, there's no important data today, there aren't any Fed speakers you'd want to front run. It's an unusually large trade for a day with no event risk . . . Somebody just got a lot richer. |
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$580 million richer, in reminder. |
The Financial Times cites another market strategist at a brokerage firm. His nostrils too fill with the stench of a rodent: |
It's hard to prove causality . . . but you have to wonder who would have been relatively aggressive at selling futures at that point, 15 minutes before Trump's post. |
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A White House spokesperson denied with vehemence any skulduggery, chicanery or malfeasance on the administration's part. |
I leave you — my dear reader —to your own conclusions. |
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$60 Million in Minutes! |
Yet the oil trade was not the sole profitable wager to center upon the president's 7:04 announcement. |
Reports The Kobeissi Letter: |
At 6:50 AM ET (yesterday), $1.5 BILLION in notional value worth of S&P 500 futures contracts were bought. |
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This trade was so large it sent the entire index +0.3% higher that minute. |
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Then, 14 minutes later at 7:04 AM ET, President Trump announced "productive discussions" with Iran were underway. |
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By 7:10 AM ET, the S&P 500 had added +$2 TRILLION in market cap. |
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That $1.5 billion position gained +$60 million in minutes. |
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Are the U.S. and Iran Secretly Negotiating? |
Yet is there validity to the president's claims? Are the United States and Iran conducting "productive conversations" to terminate the conflict? |
Tehran dismissed the president's claims at a stroke. Iranian officials claim his announcement early yesterday represented naked "market manipulation." |
Yet Axios reports that the president claims Iran has agreed to the following terms: |
Iran committed not to pursue nuclear weapons or to enrich uranium, and to hand over its existing stockpiles. Iran agreed to be "low-key on the missiles." Iran also agreed to reopen the strait of Hormuz.
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Yet I interpret these terms as surrender terms. And I do not believe Iran is poised to surrender. |
I point simply to Iran's present negotiating leverage. |
It currently operates a toll booth regulating passage through the Hormuz Strait. It only raises the gate for the ships of nations it deems non-hostile. |
The United States Navy lacks the means to break Iran's grip upon the passageway. |
Tehran knows well President Trump's sensitivity to energy prices. They too understand that 2026 is an election year. |
And the longer they maintain a chokehold on the energy trade… the higher the United States gasoline price… and the likelier that the American voter will punish the president's party at the polls. |
In that sense it is Iran that wields the negotiating leverage — not the president. |
More Leverage for Iran |
Meantime, Iran has largely depleted the regional air defense stocks of the United States and Israel. |
And Iran continues to lob destructive missiles throughout the region, Israel concluded, against dwindling defenses. |
Iran is exposing bare cupboards. |
This advantage represents another leverage fulcrum for Tehran. Why would they hand it away? And for what in return? |
That is, what United States concessions would Iran receive in exchange for Iran's supposed concessions? |
The president did not cite any. |
All the while, many reports indicate that the Iranian regime confronts no immediate risk of collapse. |
The nation is absorbing a severe whaling, it is true. Yet it appears by all accounts, resilient. |
Yet could it be true… that the United States and Iran are conducting secret negotiations? |
Is Trump Simply Following His Established Negotiating Pattern? |
Above I cited The Kobeissi Letter. They believe the answer is yes. And they believe the conflict is nearing resolution. |
Why? They believe the president is repeating the identical pattern that resulted, for example, in a trade accord with China: |
We firmly believe there are ongoing US-Iran "peace deal" talks right now: |
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Why? Because we have seen this EXACT sequence of events MULTIPLE times in previous deals negotiated by President Trump. |
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In fact, the May 2025 China trade deal followed the exact same timeline. |
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On April 24th, 2025, just 15 days after the "90-day tariff pause"... President Trump made similar claims about China, and China responded like Iran just did. |
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Trump said China was interested in a "trade deal" with the US, and China responded stating that "there are absolutely no negotiations between the US and China." |
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Just 3 weeks later, on May 12th, 2025, the US and China announced their first trade deal, reducing tariffs to a 30% baseline. |
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We believe a similar situation is happening right now with Iran, behind closed doors. |
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As Iran's war strategy has become to play the "long game" and pressure the US/Israel through capital and energy markets, Iran does not want to lose leverage and allow markets to normalize until a definitive deal has been solidified. |
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This is the same exact form of leverage that China had in April 2025 negotiations, which they initially denied, as… US equity markets collapsed. |
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We believe Trump is following the same playbook now. |
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The Unfolding of Miscalculations |
It is my sincere hope that these fellows are correct. And perhaps they will be proven correct. |
I can only conclude that Iran is as hot to terminate the conflict as President Trump. While it is dispensing violence, it is absorbing even greater violence. |
Meantime, the conflict enters its fourth week. |
"War is the unfolding of miscalculations" argued the American writer and historian Barbara Tuchman. |
Several miscalculations have already unfolded in this war. Miscalculations are the mothers and fathers of peril. |
Need we witness the unfolding of more? |
Brian Maher |
for Freedom Financial News |
P.S. Things are scary in the Middle East, despite possible negotiations. And it's natural to be worried about your investments. |
But legendary investor Robert Kiyosaki isn't afraid. |
That's because Robert's been a player in the energy market for decades — not years — but decades! |
So when the Strait of Hormuz crisis hit over three weeks ago, Robert was already prepared to make his move. |
That's because of a highly specific energy trading system that Robert uses. Most investors know nothing about it. |
But his energy trading system was already crushing the S&P — by 36-to-1 — before the first shot was even fired! |
Imagine what it might do next as the crisis accelerates! |
Robert has dropped everything to put together an emergency briefing showing how he's playing this crisis for maximum profit— and how you can too. |
Go here right now to check it out. But don't delay, this is time-sensitive information you just can't sit on. |
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