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FEATURED ARTICLE |
The Great Space Race: Which Stocks Win? |
The space trade is doing something very familiar. |
It is taking one giant private-market number and using it as an excuse to rerate an entire public-market ecosystem. |
That number is SpaceX. |
Back in late January, Reuters reported the company was weighing a June 2026 IPO at about a $1.5 trillion valuation. Then, on March 10, Reuters reported SpaceX was weighing a Nasdaq listing at around $1.75 trillion, potentially one of the largest IPOs ever and large enough to rank among the biggest U.S. companies immediately. |
That kind of number does not stay private. |
It leaks into everything. |
It changes how investors think about launch. It changes how they think about satellite infrastructure. It changes how they think about lunar logistics. And it definitely changes how they think about smaller public space stocks that suddenly look like "cheap comparables" against a trillion-plus benchmark. |
That is the first leg of The Great Space Race. |
The second leg is NASA's moon timeline. NASA said on February 27 that Artemis II was being prepared for April 2026 launch opportunities after repairs, while also revising the Artemis architecture so that Artemis III becomes a 2027 low-Earth-orbit test mission and Artemis IV becomes the next lunar landing mission in 2028. NASA also said the revised Artemis III profile is intended to include a rendezvous and docking with commercial landers from SpaceX and Blue Origin. |
That matters because every time NASA shifts the calendar, the market starts asking the same question: |
Which private companies get paid while the government timeline stretches? |
And the third leg is defense. |
Reuters reported in January that global investment in space technology is expected to keep climbing in 2026 after a record 2025, propelled by spending on defense-linked satellite systems, sovereign space infrastructure, launch capacity, and AI-enabled space hardware. Reuters also said a potential SpaceX IPO could validate space tech as a mainstream asset class. |
Put all that together and you get the current setup: |
SpaceX is the valuation anchor. Artemis is the public-program timing variable. Defense spending is the cash-flow stabilizer. And the public market is trying to sort out who deserves a real rerating and who is just catching speculative sympathy.
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That is the whole game. |
Scoreboard: what actually matters right now |
Let's start with the hard numbers. |
SpaceX's valuation anchor |
Reuters reported in January that SpaceX was weighing an IPO at roughly $1.5 trillion and potentially raising as much as $50 billion. By March, Reuters said the company was considering a Nasdaq listing at around $1.75 trillion, with early inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 a major attraction. |
NASA's Artemis timeline |
NASA said Artemis II is being prepared for April 2026 launch opportunities after troubleshooting a helium issue and other repairs. In the same February 27 update, NASA moved Artemis III to 2027 as a systems-and-operations test mission in low Earth orbit, with Artemis IV now positioned as the next lunar landing in 2028. |
Defense-linked space capital |
Reuters reported in January that private investment in space technology rose 48% in 2025 to $12.4 billion, including $3.8 billion in Q4 alone, and that 2026 growth is expected to be driven by sovereign satellite systems, missile defense, launch capacity, and AI in space hardware. |
The large-cap beneficiaries |
RTX is trading around $204.52 with a market cap of roughly $224.0 billion and a trailing P/E of about 34.0x. GE Aerospace is trading around $299.69 with a market cap of roughly $318.6 billion and a trailing P/E of about 39.5x. |
Those are not "space startups." |
They are liquid large-cap aerospace and defense proxies that can absorb real capital when investors want exposure to orbital defense infrastructure without pure moonshot risk. |
The real reason the sector is rerating |
The market is not just getting excited about rockets. |
It is repricing space as infrastructure. |
That sounds obvious, but it is a huge shift. |
For years, a lot of public space investing revolved around one of two weak narratives: |
"launch is cool," and "someday the space economy will be huge."
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That is not enough anymore. |
Now the money is chasing three much more concrete buckets: |
1. Space as strategic national infrastructure |
Reuters said governments are increasingly treating space infrastructure as a strategic priority, especially around sovereign satellite systems, missile defense, and geopolitical resilience. |
2. Space as AI infrastructure |
Reuters also said investors see AI integration into space hardware and analytics as a 2026 growth driver. If SpaceX, Starlink, or future orbital compute narratives become central to AI infrastructure, then the sector gets revalued not as aerospace alone, but as a cross between defense, telecom, and compute. |
3. Space as a mainstream capital-markets asset class |
That is the SpaceX effect. Seraphim Space's Lucas Bishop told Reuters a potential SpaceX IPO could "validate SpaceTech as a mainstream asset class" and open a clearer path to public listings for later-stage companies. |
That is exactly why smaller names rerate when SpaceX's rumored valuation jumps. |
Even if those smaller businesses are not remotely as good as SpaceX, the private-market anchor changes what investors are willing to pay for the category. |
That does not make the rerating rational. |
It just makes it understandable. |
The SpaceX IPO is not just a listing — it is a sector benchmark |
This is the part I think matters most. |
A $1.5 trillion to $1.75 trillion SpaceX valuation is not just a headline. It functions as a new benchmark for the entire sector. |
Why? |
Because once investors accept that the dominant private-space company deserves a valuation larger than almost every listed industrial, telecom, or defense company on Earth, they start asking what other assets might be underpriced relative to that benchmark. |
That is how you get sector sympathy. |
Reuters reported in early February that U.S. space stocks rose after Musk's SpaceX merged with xAI at a $1.25 trillion combined valuation, with names like Rocket Lab and Intuitive Machines among the beneficiaries. Reuters explicitly tied that move to the expectation of a future SpaceX IPO north of $1.5 trillion. |
That is the market telling you something very simple: |
If SpaceX is worth that much, maybe the public names are too cheap. |
Of course, that logic can be sloppy. |
SpaceX has launch dominance, Starlink scale, defense relevance, and private-market scarcity. Smaller public space companies do not have all of that. But valuation anchors do not need to be perfect to move stocks. They just need to be large and believable enough to change the conversation. |
And right now, SpaceX is both. |
The Artemis delay is not a bearish story — it is a contract story |
Now let's talk about the lunar side. |
The user framing is directionally right: the Artemis timeline changes have absolutely increased chatter around which private companies might fill the lunar-logistics gap. |
But the key nuance is this: |
NASA is not abandoning lunar ambitions. It is re-sequencing risk. |
NASA's February 27 release is explicit. Artemis II is still being prepared for an April 2026 launch opportunity. But Artemis III is no longer the immediate crewed lunar-landing mission. Instead, it becomes a 2027 low-Earth-orbit test flight involving docking, integrated system checks, and commercial lander interface testing, with Artemis IV in 2028 as the next lunar landing milestone. |
NASA also said Artemis III is expected to include a rendezvous and docking with commercial landers from SpaceX and Blue Origin. |
So what does the market hear when it sees that? |
Not "moon canceled." |
It hears: |
more time for commercial lander contractors, more testing and interface work, more room for private logistics, surface systems, docking capability, fueling, and comms providers, and probably more investor speculation around every public company that can plausibly say "lunar" in a deck.
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That is why smaller lunar-adjacent names can get social buzz on Artemis timeline changes even when the official update is mostly about risk reduction. |
And Reuters added another important wrinkle this week: NASA's inspector general warned that SpaceX's Starship lunar-landing timeline has slipped at least two years since its 2021 selection and that its complex orbital refueling architecture remains a major risk to the agency's Moon plans. |
That is not a trivial detail. |
Because every delay or risk flag around Starship increases the market's willingness to speculate about alternative contractors, secondary suppliers, or "picks and shovels" lunar exposure. |
In other words: |
Artemis timing noise keeps the ecosystem tradable. |
Sovereign space defense is the less exciting but more investable story |
Now let's get to the part where actual money gets sticky. |
Speculation is fine. |
Defense budgets are better. |
Reuters reported that 2026 space investment growth is being driven in large part by sovereign satellite systems, missile-defense systems, and other defense-linked infrastructure. |
That is why the safer capital is rotating into large-cap aerospace and defense names rather than only into smaller pure-play space stocks. |
RTX |
RTX guided 2026 adjusted sales to $92 billion to $93 billion, with Q4 2025 revenue of $24.24 billion, up about 12% year over year, according to Reuters. RTX also sits right in the sweet spot where missile defense, avionics, sensing, and defense systems intersect with future orbital defense architectures. The stock now trades around $204.52 with a market cap near $224 billion. |
GE Aerospace |
GE Aerospace is less of a pure orbital-defense name, but it is absolutely part of the sovereign-aerospace buildout. Reuters reported GE expects 2026 adjusted EPS of $7.10 to $7.40, above analyst expectations, and has now committed another $1 billion in U.S. investment for 2026, including more than $275 million for defense-engine production sites. The stock trades around $299.69 and has a market cap above $318 billion. |
This is where the Great Space Race becomes investable for conservative money. |
Because plenty of institutional investors are not going to chase tiny lunar-speculation names with negative earnings. But they will buy companies tied to aerospace, sensing, engines, missile defense, radar, and sovereign systems if geopolitical tensions keep pushing budgets upward. |
Reuters also reported that five major U.S. defense contractors are projected to spend about $10.08 billion in capex in 2026, up nearly 38% from $7.31 billion in 2025. |
That is real industrial commitment. |
Not just a hype cycle. |
Is it cheap? That depends on which lane you are in |
This is where Cheap Investor logic matters. |
Because "space" is not one asset class right now. It is at least three: |
1. The SpaceX benchmark trade |
This is the argument that public names are cheap because SpaceX is rumored at $1.5 trillion to $1.75 trillion. That can drive momentum, but it is the weakest form of value because it depends on a comparable that is not directly comparable. |
2. The lunar-logistics speculation trade |
This is the "Artemis delays create a gap" idea. It can work in bursts, especially around social sentiment and program headlines, but it is the least durable lane unless you know exactly which companies have real contractual exposure. NASA's updated architecture still centers commercial landers from SpaceX and Blue Origin, and Reuters' reporting on Starship delays shows why the timeline remains fluid. |
3. The sovereign-defense infrastructure trade |
This is the strongest lane. It is less sexy, but it is anchored in actual budget flows, rising capex, and strategic urgency. That is why RTX and GE can keep attracting capital even if the speculative names get choppy. |
So is the sector cheap? |
The narrative is not cheap. Some of the infrastructure exposure still might be. |
That is the distinction. |
Space as a theme is now expensive in attention. But large-cap aerospace/defense names with real earnings and defense-linked capital budgets are still a different proposition than zero-profit moonshot speculation. |
Bull, base, and bear |
Bull case |
SpaceX files, the IPO valuation lands somewhere near the rumored range, and the entire listed space ecosystem gets a legitimacy rerating. NASA's revised Artemis architecture keeps private contractors central to lunar plans, while sovereign defense budgets keep rising into space sensing, missile defense, and orbital infrastructure. In that setup, both speculative names and large-cap aerospace proxies can continue working. |
Base case |
SpaceX continues to dominate the conversation, but only a subset of public names deserve rerating. The market separates story stocks from contract-backed infrastructure players. Artemis timeline changes keep lunar names tradable, but the cleaner returns go to firms with budgeted defense exposure and industrial scale. |
Bear case |
The SpaceX IPO gets delayed or priced differently than expected, the benchmark anchor fades, and smaller public names that ran on sympathy give back gains. Artemis changes become a source of frustration rather than excitement, and defense money stays concentrated in a small number of incumbents rather than broadening across the sector. |
Action plan for bargain hunters |
Here is the non-cute version. |
Do not buy "space" as one thing. |
Break it into buckets. |
Conservative |
Focus on the sovereign space defense angle through larger aerospace and defense names. RTX and GE are not pure-play moon stocks, but they are liquid, earnings-backed ways to own the defense-industrial side of the orbital buildout. |
Moderate |
Own the benchmark logic, but carefully. If you want exposure to the rerating effect from a possible SpaceX IPO, size smaller public space names as optionality, not as core positions. The benchmark may help them, but it does not make them SpaceX. |
Aggressive |
Trade the event chain: |
SpaceX IPO headlines Artemis architecture and launch-timeline headlines defense-space procurement headlines
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That is where the sector's biggest moves are likely to cluster in 2026. But do not back up the truck on sympathy alone. |
Cheap Investor checklist |
Watch these over the next 30–90 days: |
Whether SpaceX actually files confidentially and at what valuation range. Reuters has reported both $1.5 trillion and $1.75 trillion figures. Whether Nasdaq's fast-entry framework for giant IPOs advances, since that could improve liquidity and investor appetite for the listing. Whether Artemis II actually launches in the April 2026 window and whether NASA sticks with the updated 2027/2028 architecture. Whether NASA or the inspector general flags more Starship lander delays. Whether sovereign-space and missile-defense budgets broaden beyond early prototype programs. Reuters said Golden Dome still has progress bottlenecks despite $25 billion available. RTX's execution against its $92 billion to $93 billion 2026 sales guide. GE Aerospace's follow-through on its $1 billion 2026 U.S. investment, including the $275 million for defense-engine sites. Whether private space investment keeps running after the 48% jump to $12.4 billion in 2025. Which smaller public names are moving on actual contracts versus just SpaceX sympathy. Reuters already showed that benchmark effect in February. Whether the market continues treating space as strategic infrastructure rather than speculative optionality.
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Bottom line |
The Great Space Race is not just about rockets anymore. |
It is about valuation anchors, timeline slippage, and defense capital. |
SpaceX's rumored $1.5 trillion to $1.75 trillion IPO range is functioning like a giant pricing beacon for the sector. NASA's Artemis changes are keeping lunar-logistics speculation alive while also reminding investors that commercial partners remain essential. And the safest money is increasingly flowing into large-cap aerospace and defense names tied to sovereign orbital infrastructure rather than only to speculative moonshots. |
So here is the Cheap Investor verdict: |
The space narrative is expensive. The defense-infrastructure angle is more investable. And the best opportunities will probably come from separating real cash-flow exposure from pure SpaceX envy. |
Disclaimer: This editorial is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Always conduct independent research before making financial decisions. |
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