A happy Sunday to you,
30 years ago I was having a bad day. I don't remember why. Teenagers don't really need an excuse.
I hopped on my bike, slowly pedaling my way through our suburban neighborhood.
At some point, the passing asphalt caught my attention. I stared straight at the ground as I rode along.
"Hey kid, watch out!"
My head snapped up too late.
I rode my bike into the back of a parked car at a leisurely two miles per hour. It was humiliating.
We're all staring at this same market: Jeff Bierman, Tony Rago, Blake Young, Corey Rosenbloom, Gianni Di Poce, Brandon Chapman, and of course, the white haired wonder himself, Don Kaufman.
With few exceptions, every single one of them has warned you about this market.
Jeff highlighted the weekly MACD rolling over.
Gianni, the perpetual bull, talked about sector rotation.
Brandon continuously highlighted bearish prints one after another in the console.
So, I'll just say this…
If the latest selloff caught you by surprise, you, my friend, ran into a parked car.
In the decades since, I have not performed the same feat of stupidity a second time. I suggest you try to do the same.
Volatility is inevitable.
So, you can learn to trade with it, training yourself with packages like our Super Bundle (which is one heck of a deal), or not.
The choice is yours.
Jordan Schneir
Editorial Director, TheoTRADE
Don Kaufman: The Market Priced a $79 Move. It's Delivered $30. That Gap Doesn't Disappear.
Markets priced a $79 expected move in the S&P this week. They delivered $30. Most traders called it a quiet day. Here's why that math should concern you heading into next week.
Markets were pricing a $79 expected move in the S&P 500 this morning.
That's not normal Friday volatility. That's "something big is about to break" territory. By the first hour, we'd moved $30.
When options markets are screaming about massive moves and the actual market is sitting there like a dead fish, you don't celebrate the calm. You start hedging.
Here's what everyone missed this morning.
CLICK HERE to continue reading Don's article.
Brandon Chapman: 35 Days, Not 97
A 97-day hedge in regional banks just got compressed to 35 days.
The institution behind the trade closed a June put spread in KRE and reopened it for April 17. Same directional bet, same size, but 62 fewer days on the clock.
If you own a hedge and the risk passes, you take it off. If the risk is growing but the timeline is uncertain, you keep it on. Shortening it means something different. It means you think the move is imminent.
The Ghost Prints Surveillance Console flagged over 16,000 contracts in that KRE roll today, alongside rolling activity in XLB, XLI, and XLV during the same session.
I'm going to break down what happens to gamma when you compress the expiration window on a put spread.
Then we'll look at why four sectors saw the same behavior on the same day.
And finally, where KRE breaks if the pressure continues.
CLICK HERE to continue reading Brandon's article.
Gianni Di Poce: Oil Holds the Key to Everything Right Now
Nothing happens in a vacuum.
For every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction somewhere. Even when it is not obvious at first.
But if you can identify this path, you'll know precisely what to do before the next move.
The market's behavior over the past few weeks is a stark reminder of how everything is connected.
The surge in crude oil has absolutely decimated parts of the stock market.
Financials are now the worst-performing sector of the year. That is a serious problem considering financials are the second-largest sector in the S&P 500.
There is a chain reaction happening right now that starts with a barrel of crude oil and ends with your portfolio.
I am going to walk you through every link in that chain.
By the end, you will understand exactly what needs to happen for this market to turn
Because the current wave of fear could be setting up the trade of the year.
CLICK HERE to continue reading Gianni's article.
Jeff Bierman: $8 Per Share. Best I've Ever Seen. They Killed It Anyway.
My wife has an Ulta account. My daughter has one too.
I drop them off once a week and sit in the parking lot while they spend an hour in there.
I love Ulta. It is a fantastic business.
Last week, the company reported eight dollars per share in earnings. That is the highest number I have ever seen from any retailer.
Costco and Walmart will never touch that number. The stock got destroyed anyway.
This is the lesson I need every one of you to carry into next week. Not just the Ulta lesson. Three companies proved the exact same thing in the span of 48 hours.
Understanding what those signals mean is the difference between surviving this market and becoming a casualty.
This weekend, I want to show you how to read the character of a market.
Because right now, the character is telling you everything you need to know.
CLICK HERE to continue reading Jeff's article.
Blake Young: The Oil Math Nobody Wants to Do
Gas prices are up 40%.
The average American now pays roughly a dollar more per gallon than they did months ago.
But the opportunity is not in hoping for cheaper oil…
…it's in trading the sectors that get crushed when energy costs stay elevated.
You see, the gas price increase hits every household budget in the country. It is not going away soon.
The popular assumption is that releasing strategic reserves or restoring production through geopolitical agreements will bring prices back down quickly.
The math tells a different story.
Historical data going back to the 1970s shows that crude oil has never sustained a reversal below $100 per barrel in less than five months after breaking above it.
The current supply deficit makes that timeline even harder to compress.
So, here's how I like to trade this.
CLICK HERE to continue reading Blake's article.
Tony Rago: I Missed the Entire Selloff…And Still Booked 250 Points Before Lunch.
Friday morning, the NQ sliced through yesterday's low like it wasn't even there. Price was falling, the tape was ugly, and I was sitting in a classroom teaching a masterclass.
"Believe me, I'm sitting here teaching a class and I'm looking out like, 'I'm missing so much.'"
The NQ was in free fall with big displacement candles printing on the screen. The kind of move that makes traders abandon their plan and start firing off market orders just to be in something.
I did nothing.
And that decision to do nothing is the reason I walked out of Friday's futures room session with 250 points on two trades before lunch.
Let me explain why.
CLICK HERE to continue reading Tony's article.
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