Bonus: Vertex: Cheap enough to buy?  ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌

March 10, 2026   |   Read Online An Update on My Latest Warning Bonus: Vertex: Cheap enough to buy? A message from our friends at Brownstone Research (Sponsor) An Update on My Latest Warning Editor's Note: Unlike 2000… or 2008… the biggest firms today ARE the bubble. And according to one former hedge fund manager, our colleague Larry Benedict, this is setting up the biggest financial reckoning in over 50 years. Popular stocks could crash up to 80-90% and send the economy into a tailspin. Go here to watch Larry debrief people on this situation or read more below. Dear Reader, Those of you who followed my work closely know I've been saying the markets are overdue for a correction. And the Wall Street heavyweights seem to agree with me… Morgan Stanley said a decline of 15% is possible… Goldman Sachs warned the losses could hit 20%... While Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, confessed he was "far more worried than others" about a market crash. And Mark Mobius, who ran the emerging markets group at Franklin Templeton for three decades before starting his own hedge fund… Is calling for a 30-40% decline in AI stocks. However, all of this would only be the start of a much bigger financial reckoning… A reckoning that could last for decades. At this moment, FOUR unstoppable market forces are barreling toward each other. The last time these forces converged was over 50 years ago. Popular stocks crashed 80-90%, low-risk investments got obliterated, and the economy experienced low growth and high inflation. Bottom line? It was all-around misery for Americans. And this same situation is unfolding again. Click here to see my latest research and what I'm doing to sidestep the carnage. Regards, Larry Benedict Founder, The Opportunistic Trader BONUS ARTICLE Vertex After the Povetacicept Pop: Cheap Enough to Buy, or Paying Up for a New Growth Leg? Vertex just reminded the market that it is not only a cystic-fibrosis cash machine. It is trying to become a multi-franchise biotech with real staying power. That is why the stock ripped. Vertex Pharmaceuticals closed at $499.17, up 8.3% on Tuesday, March 10, 2026, after investors digested positive late-stage data for povetacicept, its experimental treatment for IgA nephropathy, a serious kidney disease. The finance tool puts Vertex's market cap at about $100.4 billion and its trailing P/E at about 27.3x. lyst was simple and powerful: in the Phase 3 RAINIER interim analysis, povetacicept produced a 52.0% reduction from baseline in proteinuria after 36 weeks, versus a 4.3% decline in the placebo arm. Reuters reported that Vertex plans to file with the FDA by the end of March and use a priority review voucher to potentially cut review time to six months from ten. the stock jumped for a reason. Now the harder question: Is it cheap? Not conventionally cheap. Potentially cheap relative to what the pipeline may be worth. That is the whole debate. Scoreboard: what happened Here are the numbers that mattered today: Stock move: VRTX closed at $499.17, up 8.29% on the day. day range:** The stock traded between $479.64 and $507.47. t cap:** About $100.4 billion. ing P/E:** About 27.3x. result:** Povetacicept cut proteinuria by 52.0% from baseline after 36 weeks, versus 4.3% for placebo. ional efficacy signals:** Reuters reported a roughly 79.3% reduction in a harmful antibody and blood-in-urine clearance in more than 85% of patients versus placebo. size:** The interim readout covered 199 patients; the full study enrolls 605 patients and continues for two years to track kidney function decline. English: this was not a vague "encouraging update." This was a clinically meaningful, market-moving data point in a large new indication. The real reason the stock moved The market already knew Vertex was high quality. What it did not fully price in was a cleaner path to becoming less dependent on cystic fibrosis. That is the key. Vertex has long been admired for its CF dominance, but a stock can only get so much multiple expansion from being "excellent at one thing." What investors pay up for is the moment a company proves it can become a platform. Povetacicept matters because it strengthens the case that Vertex can build a renal franchise on top of CF, pain, and gene-edited therapies. Reuters quoted BMO's Evan Seigerman saying the results "firmly place povetacicept as a clear competitor and potential leader in IgAN," and also reported the data compare favorably with Vera Therapeutics' atacicept and are competitive with Otsuka's approved treatment. nges the narrative from: "Great company, but mostly one cash cow" to: "Great company, with multiple shots on goal that may be commercializing in sequence." That is a much richer story. Deep dive: what Vertex is now Vertex is still, first and foremost, a rare-disease biotech with elite economics. Its core franchise is cystic fibrosis, and that franchise remains enormous. But the company has been pushing to diversify through: ALYFTREK, its next-generation CF therapy, JOURNAVX, its non-opioid pain drug, CASGEVY, its gene-edited therapy in blood disorders, and now potentially povetacicept in kidney disease. ters because investors do not just value current revenue. They value durability. A business earning billions from a single category is strong. A business earning billions while building multiple future revenue streams is stronger—and usually gets a longer runway from the market. Data section: the business underneath the move Vertex's latest reported numbers are still very solid. For full-year 2025, Vertex reported: $12.0 billion in total revenue, up 9% year over year. 25 revenue of $3.19 billion**. year non-GAAP EPS of $18.40** and Q4 non-GAAP EPS of $5.30, according to a transcript summary of the earnings call. billion** in cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities at year-end 2025. 26**, Vertex guided to: $12.95 billion to $13.1 billion in total revenue, which implies about 8% to 9% growth at the midpoint. t $500 million in revenue from non-CF products, including CASGEVY and JOURNAVX. dance matters because it says the stock did not need povetacicept to justify the whole business. The core machine was already growing. Povetacicept adds an extra branch to the tree. Why the kidney data matters economically IgA nephropathy is not just "another orphan drug niche." It is a meaningful commercial opportunity because it sits at the intersection of chronic kidney disease, specialty nephrology, and long treatment duration. Reuters described IgA nephropathy as a serious autoimmune disease that can lead to kidney failure or death in a large proportion of patients within 20 years of diagnosis. nical seriousness matters for three reasons: Doctors will pay attention to strong proteinuria reduction. Payers may tolerate premium pricing if the drug shows durable kidney protection. Investors will start capitalizing future renal revenue earlier once an FDA filing is close. Vertex is not at the finish line yet. The full 605-patient trial continues for two years to measure long-term kidney-function decline, which is a more durable outcome than proteinuria alone. interim data were strong enough that Vertex said it plans to seek U.S. approval this month. That shrinks uncertainty. And shrinking uncertainty is often what creates valuation re-rating. Is it cheap? Here is the honest answer. On trailing numbers, it is not "cheap cheap." At $100.4 billion market cap and $12.0 billion in 2025 revenue, Vertex trades at roughly 8.4x trailing sales. Using the finance tool's trailing P/E of 27.3x and the reported 2025 non-GAAP EPS of $18.40, the market is clearly pricing Vertex as a premium biotech, not a bargain-bin turnaround. not dirt cheap. On quality-adjusted terms, it starts to get interesting. Why? Because Vertex has several traits that usually deserve a premium: strong profitability, a large cash balance, existing blockbuster revenue, multiple late-stage or newly launched products, and a fresh catalyst that could reduce dependence on CF over time. cheap" case is not that the stock looks statistically low-priced. The "cheap" case is that the market may still be underestimating how much future value sits beyond the legacy CF franchise. That is a different kind of cheap. Call it pipeline-adjusted cheap. What would make it truly cheap from here? For Vertex to look obviously cheap in hindsight, three things likely need to happen: Povetacicept gets approved on the accelerated timeline. JOURNAVX and CASGEVY contribute enough to make non-CF revenue scale beyond the current $500 million+ 2026 guide. The market starts viewing Vertex as a multi-engine biotech compounder rather than a premium one-franchise name. happen, today's valuation may look reasonable. If they do not, then 27x earnings is not especially forgiving. What could go wrong This is still biotech. So let's not get cute. The stock rallied on interim data, not on approved revenue. The same Reuters report that highlighted the strong readout also noted the full trial continues and is designed to measure long-term kidney-function decline over two years. That means one major layer of de-risking is still ahead. clude: the FDA process not going as smoothly as expected, commercial uptake taking longer than bulls think, kidney outcomes over the full study proving less spectacular than proteinuria results, or the market deciding the pop already priced in too much future revenue. And there is a broader valuation risk too. Once a high-quality biotech starts trading like a "platform story," the burden of proof rises. You are no longer paying for what it earns. You are paying for what it might become. Bull, base, and bear Bull case Povetacicept is approved on an expedited timeline, the launch goes well, and Vertex proves that its non-CF portfolio is becoming material faster than expected. In that scenario, the stock's current 27.3x earnings multiple may actually compress into growth as earnings and revenue broaden. case The drug gets approved, but adoption is gradual. CF still drives most of the economics near term, while JOURNAVX, CASGEVY, and renal products build more slowly. In that case, Vertex remains a very good company trading at a fair-to-premium multiple. That is not a disaster. It just means upside may be steadier than explosive. case The market got ahead of itself. The kidney opportunity takes longer, the full trial leaves lingering questions, and the stock cools off after today's excitement. If that happens, the multiple could drift lower because premium biotech names rarely get infinite patience. n plan for bargain hunters This does not look like a reckless chase setup to me. But it also does not look like a screaming bargain after an 8.3% one-day move. My Cheap Investor framing would be: Conservative Wait for some digestion. A great company can still become a mediocre entry point if you buy the first euphoric candle. Moderate A starter position can make sense if you believe Vertex is shifting into a broader multi-franchise growth story, but size it as a premium-quality compounder, not a distressed value trade. Aggressive Use volatility. If the stock pulls back without any change to the regulatory timeline or the underlying thesis, that may create the cleaner "cheap enough" window than buying straight into the news. In other words: I like the business more than I like chasing the headline. Cheap Investor checklist Here are the key things to track next: FDA filing timing — Vertex said it plans to file by the end of March. ew speed** — the company plans to use a priority review voucher to target about six months instead of ten. er-term kidney data** — the full 605-patient trial continues for two years. revenue execution** — management guided to $12.95 billion to $13.1 billion. CF diversification** — can Vertex exceed $500 million from non-CF products in 2026? strength** — Vertex ended 2025 with $12.3 billion in cash and marketable securities. ation discipline** — at roughly 8.4x trailing sales and 27.3x earnings, the stock needs continued execution. her today's move holds** — one-day biotech pops are nice; sustained repricing is better. m line Is Vertex cheap? By classic value metrics, not really. By quality-plus-pipeline metrics, maybe. Vertex already has the numbers: $12.0 billion in 2025 revenue, strong profitability, and $12.3 billion in cash. Now it also has a fresh late-stage kidney catalyst with a planned FDA filing within weeks. rdict is this: Vertex is not a bargain-bin stock. It is a premium biotech that could still be underappreciated if povetacicept becomes the next real revenue leg. Good business. Fair-to-interesting price. Better on pullbacks than on pure headline heat. 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