An Investment Strategy That Goes Beyond 'Good Business'
Editor's note: As the market shifts, the individual areas of strength and weakness will also change... Today, our chief market strategist Pete Carmasino expands on that idea. It's an adapted version of an essay that was published in the October 1, 2025 edition of the Chaikin PowerFeed. And in it, Pete discusses following the technical action to target shifts in strength in different corners of the market...
Editor's note: As the market shifts, the individual areas of strength and weakness will also change...
Today, our chief market strategist Pete Carmasino expands on that idea. It's an adapted version of an essay that was published in the October 1, 2025 edition of the Chaikin PowerFeed. And in it, Pete discusses following the technical action to target shifts in strength in different corners of the market...
An Investment Strategy That Goes Beyond 'Good Business'
By Pete Carmasino, chief market strategist, Chaikin Analytics
By 2011, I was furious with the investment-management business...
The S&P 500 Index and Nasdaq Composite Index ripped higher in the late 1990s. Many folks got comfortable with anything and everything going up.
But then, the bottom fell out. And from 2000 to 2010, stocks struggled to move higher.
This period is now known as the "lost decade." That's because of the abysmal returns...
The S&P 500 fell at least 10% every year from 2000 to 2002. It took the market seven years to make a new high. And it was much longer before the index truly broke out.
Then, during the financial crisis in 2008, the S&P 500 plunged nearly 40% in a year.
It didn't matter which manager you chose. They all kept failing to produce for their clients. And yet, they all collected their fees while delivering almost nothing in return.
That didn't sit well with me. So I started to search for a better way to help people...
You see, at the time, almost all fund managers relied on fundamentals alone. But that approach wasn't working...
After all, does it matter that you've invested in a "good business" if its stock isn't going up? How long do you hold on and tolerate the poor returns?
These fund managers' fundamentals-only approach seemed crazy. To me, the investing puzzle for these folks was obviously missing a piece...
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The Power of Sector Rotation
I'm talking about reading charts and figuring out the "technicals" of a stock's price.
In the mid-1990s, I learned how to do that from books and people I worked with. This approach seemed to work more than it didn't – especially during the dot-com boom.
As the years passed, I expanded my skill set with rules like "support" and "resistance" levels. I also learned how to incorporate things like volatility triggers into my approach.
I dove into a new world of quantitative investment management. And as I got more comfortable, I learned to tweak my investments when the market's technicals changed.
That tinkering ultimately led me to the style of sector rotation.
Sector rotation builds off the idea that the market isn't just one big unit. Sometimes, parts of the market zig while others zag. And they're constantly changing – or rotating.
Sector rotation seems like common sense. And yet, it's still a relatively new concept in the investment-management business.
Even I didn't fully embrace the idea at first...
At the start of the lost decade in stocks, I always wanted to know why a particular move would happen. It's human nature to try to figure out the underlying reasons.
But as tech stocks made big moves in the dot-com era, I realized the "why" isn't always known. Rather, something else seems to matter a heck of a lot more for investors...
Price action.
The price tells an important story about a market or an individual stock. And if you wait until the story ends, it's often too late for you to capitalize on an opportunity.
Eventually, I realized that sector rotation relates to business cycles. That helped me to see moves in sectors before anyone else was mentioning them in their daily research.
The business cycle spins through four stages – early recovery, full expansion, slowdown, and recession. And along the way, the market's different sectors ebb and flow.
If you don't already know the market's 11 sectors, they are...
Sector rotation means getting into the right sector at the right moment. Then, you get out before the business cycle shifts again.
It's not rocket science. It's more about finding the rhythm of the market and knowing when to make your move.
The trick, of course, is knowing when to act. That's where most investors struggle...
They follow yesterday's winners. They buy tech stocks at their peak. Or they make a "defensive" play like buying utilities after the storm has already passed.
Sector rotation flips the script. Instead of guessing, you just follow the business cycle.
This is the exact strategy I discussed in a special event earlier this week...
I joined my colleague and Chaikin Analytics founder Marc Chaikin to dive into more details. We talked about how this strategy can help protect your wealth and potentially point to double-digit gains in a 90-day period during today's chaotic market.
And considering that Marc sees a "bear market window" looming, this strategy is especially important right now. No matter where the market goes next, you don't want to be caught unprepared.
— According to the Chaikin Power Bar, Large Cap stocks are more Bearish than Small Cap stocks. Major indexes are mixed.
* * * *
Sector Tracker
Sector movement over the last 5 days
Energy
+3.64%
Materials
+2.83%
Financial
+0.12%
Health Care
-0.59%
Discretionary
-0.79%
Staples
-1.01%
Industrials
-1.70%
Utilities
-2.60%
Communication
-3.83%
Real Estate
-3.89%
Information Technology
-4.28%
* * * *
Industry Focus
Retail
8
30
35
Over the past 6 months, the Retail subsector (XRT) has underperformed the S&P 500 by 5.09%. Its Power Bar ratio which measures future potential is Very Weak, with more Bearish than Bullish stocks. It is currently ranked #19 of 21 subsectors.
Indicative Stocks
AMZN
Amazon.com, Inc.
ASO
Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc.
AZO
AutoZone, Inc.
* * * *
Top Movers
Gainers
BFB
+9.58%
VLO
+5.80%
BBY
+4.65%
IT
+4.24%
OXY
+4.06%
Losers
CIEN
-11.36%
SNDK
-11.02%
APP
-10.41%
LRCX
-9.35%
ANET
-9.23%
* * * *
Earnings report
Earnings Surprises
AGX Argan, Inc.
Q4
$3.47
Beat by $1.49
CMC Commercial Metals Company
Q2
$1.16
Missed by $-0.14
* * * *
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